ALICO, INC.

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Valuation models0% pass✗ 5▾

  ALCO overvalued: all 5 models price fair value below $37.24 (median $15.81)

  Buffett fair value$36.79

  ✗Buffett-1.2% margin vs $37.24

  Munger fair value$15.90

  ✗Munger-134.2% margin vs $37.24

  Pabrai fair value$9.34

  ✗Pabrai-298.7% margin vs $37.24

  Akre fair value$12.19

  ✗Akre-205.5% margin vs $37.24

  Ackman fair value$15.81

  ✗Ackman-135.5% margin vs $37.24
• Profitability6% pass✓ 4✗ 31▾

  15 of 16 flag ALCO's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +12 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)13/18 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)13/18 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-24.0%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-462.7% (latest)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$23.8M

  ✓BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)14.06

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE1.5%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value-7.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-7.8%, ROC=-18.6%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets-73.11%

  ✗PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY1.75% -> -73.11% (delta: -74.86%)

  ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=9.99%, ROA=-73.11%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY-120.9% -> -436.2%

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-7.4%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity1.5%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/B=2.8x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity-46.5% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency13/17 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue-138.0%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity1.5%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR-26.7% CAGR over 4 years

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend-10.5% (2023) -> -462.7% (2025)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 16.2% -> -436.2%, operating margin -10.5% -> -462.7%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization+0.55%; #3075/6340 (top 48.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets-6.19%; #3620/3702 (top 97.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+1.46%; #2809/5226 (top 53.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.3068; #4620/5884 (top 78.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-29.0% over 5 years

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years8/10 years positive

  ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Growth13% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾

  7 of 8 flag ALCO's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -93.8% vs Rev: -61.4%

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction$-0.49 (2009) -> $-19.29 (2025)

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR-0.4% CAGR over 13 years

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency13/17 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth-5.5%

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR-26.7% CAGR over 4 years

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 16.2% -> -436.2%, operating margin -10.5% -> -462.7%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR-13.8%

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-29.0% over 5 years

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Verdicts13% pass✓ 2✗ 14▾

  Split decision: 13 FAIL · 2 PASS · 1 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (2/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)✗GreenblattRank #2156✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗DremanFAIL (2/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1799/2370 (Top 75.9%))✗NeffFAIL (1/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #936/963 (Top 97.2%))
• Valuation15% pass✓ 2✗ 26▾

  11 of 13 flag ALCO's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +8 more

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio2.8x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value-7.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-7.8%, ROC=-18.6%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)14.1x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share2.8x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=8.4%

  ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=5.3%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=2.8x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share19.5x

  ✓Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low130% of trailing low ($28.54)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization+0.55%; #3075/6340 (top 48.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.3794; #3354/6449 (top 52.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share2.82x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change-53.3%

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.0618; #4514/5247 (top 86.0%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-1.29%; #2697/4519 (top 59.7%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-15.77%; #3762/6202 (top 60.7%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Debt & Leverage33% pass✓ 6✗ 9▾

  8 of 12 flag ALCO's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +5 more

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $82.7M vs NCA $50.6M

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.79, IC: -5.0x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity0.79

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-27.1M

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change20.64% -> 41.08%

  ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities7.96

  ✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.79

  ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels0.79

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-5.0x, D/EBITDA=N/A

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.79

  ✓Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.7910; #2986/4210 (top 70.9%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Efficiency38% pass✓ 4✗ 7▾

  5 of 8 flag ALCO's efficiency — Buffett, Greenblatt, Munger +2 more

  Current Ratio7.96

  ✓Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)-25.4%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-35.4%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-18.6%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY3.81 -> 9.56

  ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.12x -> 0.22x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities7.96

  ✓Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital-9.9%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-1.0%; FY2024: ROIC=-15.9%; FY2025: ROIC=-86.6%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC-0.1% (RR=1% x ROIC=-9.9%)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest -86.6%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Cash Flow40% pass✓ 6✗ 6▾

  6 of 10 flag ALCO's cash flow — Lynch, Dreman, Pabrai +3 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$23.8M

  ✓BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$-3.6M

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$20.1M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=9.99%, ROA=-73.11%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)14.1x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=5.3%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive10/17 years FCF positive

  ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-1.2%

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share19.5x

  ✓Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency15/17 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-3.6M

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-1.29%; #2697/4519 (top 59.7%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section