Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.

AMBP

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, and teas, as well as flavored alcoholic beverages to beverage producers.

About the company

Country: LuxembourgPrice: $4.64Market Cap: $2.8B

Investment snapshot

12%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

4 / 10

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$6.33

+36.4% vs price

Models with upside

2 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

7 of 10 pass — Lynch, Pabrai and Oshaughnessy object

Key risk

No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	Not ranked	NEUTRAL	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)	N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A	N/A		N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	N/A	N/A	N/A	-101.7%	N/A	N/A	+26.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	+29.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2026-08-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2026-08-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2026-08-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Cash Flow70% pass✓ 9✗ 3▾
7 of 10 pass — Lynch, Pabrai and Oshaughnessy object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$301.0M
✓BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$276.0M
✗LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$449.0M
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=7.91%, ROA=0.19%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)6.2x
✓Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=10.0%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive5/7 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap10.0%
✓Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share10.0x
✓Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency7/7 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$276.0M
✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+9.95%; #761/4519 (top 16.8%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Valuation models67% pass✓ 2✗ 1▾
Models split on AMBP at $4.64 — fair values range $2.30–$6.61
Greenblatt fair value$2.30
✗Greenblatt-101.7% margin vs $4.64
Munger fair value$6.33
✓Munger+26.7% margin vs $4.64
Ackman fair value$6.61
✓Ackman+29.8% margin vs $4.64

Where It Falls Short

Profitability0% pass✓ 6✗ 29▾
No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion
Positive EPS (10 years)2/8 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-190.5%
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)3/8 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-34.7%
✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)4.4% (latest)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$301.0M
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)N/A (negative mean EPS)
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROEN/A (negative equity)
✗Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value3.5%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=3.5%, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets0.19%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY-0.05% -> 0.19% (delta: +0.25%)
✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=7.91%, ROA=0.19%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY12.8% -> 12.4%
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue0.1%
✗Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity
✗Dreman> 12%
Margin of Safety
✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity-23.8% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency3/7 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue4.4%
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend1.6% (2023) -> 4.4% (2025)
✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 9.9% -> 12.4%, operating margin 1.6% -> 4.4%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Net income / market capitalization+0.40%; #3094/6340 (top 48.8%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Gross profit / total assets+11.99%; #2659/3702 (top 71.8%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0255; #1717/5884 (top 29.2%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years2/7 years positive
✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Debt & Leverage0% pass✗ 15▾
All 12 investors flag AMBP's debt & leverage
LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $4.3B vs NCA $111.0M
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: N/A (negative equity), IC: N/A
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / EquityN/A (negative equity)
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$-4.1B
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change69.52% -> 75.74%
✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.06
✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity
✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt LevelsN/A (non-positive equity)
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=N/A (no interest expense), D/EBITDA=6.3x
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity
✗Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Growth0% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾
No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-190.5%
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 33.2% vs Rev: 12.0%
✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction$-0.08 (2019) -> $-0.02 (2025)
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency3/7 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth2.6%
✗Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth
✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 9.9% -> 12.4%, operating margin 1.6% -> 4.4%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR9.8%
✓SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Efficiency0% pass✓ 1✗ 10▾
No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one efficiency criterion
Current Ratio1.06
✗Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)3.4%
✗Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC-6.6%
✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)
✗Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY1.13 -> 1.06
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.90x -> 0.97x
✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.06
✗Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital5.2%
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=1.6%; FY2024: ROIC=4.2%; FY2025: ROIC=5.2%
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC0.0% (RR=0% x ROIC=5.2%)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest 5.2%)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Valuation15% pass✓ 3✗ 25▾
11 of 13 flag AMBP's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +8 more
Price / 3-yr avg EPS
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio
✗Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value3.5%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=3.5%, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)6.2x
✓Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per ShareN/A (negative BVPS)
✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=10.9%
✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=10.0%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical Average
✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share10.0x
✓Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Net income / market capitalization+0.40%; #3094/6340 (top 48.8%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive book equity / market capitalization-0.2463; #5847/6449 (top 90.7%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per ShareN/A (non-positive TBVPS)
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change-1275.6%
✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+1.9821; #1096/5247 (top 20.9%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+9.95%; #761/4519 (top 16.8%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Verdicts17% pass✓ 2✗ 10▾
Split decision: 10 FAIL · 4 NEUTRAL · 2 PASS
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (0/7)•GreenblattNot ranked•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 6)✗DremanFAIL (3/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✓AckmanPASS (5/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)•SleepNEUTRAL (4/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (3/6)✗SchlossFAIL (1/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Shipping Containers

SIC Sector: Fabricated Metals

Size: Mid Cap($2.8B)

Revenue: $5.5B+12.0% YoY

Net Income: $11.0M+466.7% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin4.4%

Return on Equity-1.6%

Debt / Equity-6.47

Current Ratio1.06

EPS (Diluted)$-0.02

Shares Retired0.0% / −0.0% 2y

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Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 0.0% of shares last year, 0.0% issued over two.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: $262.0M

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2025 Sources 20-F · 2026-03-05	FY 2024 Sources 20-F · 2025-03-04	FY 2023 Sources 20-F · 2024-02-29	FY 2022 Sources 20-F · 2023-03-03	FY 2021 Sources 20-F · 2022-03-04
Market Cap	$2.8Bcurrent	--	--	--	--
Revenue	$5.5B↑12%	$4.9B↑2%	$4.8B↑3%	$4.7B↑16%	$4.1B
Operating Income	$244.0M↑21%	$202.0M↑166%	$76.0M↓57%	$176.0M↑274%	$47.0M
Net Income	$11.0M↑467%	-$3.0M↑94%	-$50.0M↓121%	$237.0M↑213%	-$210.0M
EPS (Diluted)	$-0.02↑60%	$-0.05↑58%	$-0.12↓132%	$0.38↑197%	$-0.39
Gross Margin	12.4%↓3%	12.8%↑30%	9.9%↓12%	11.2%↓26%	15.2%
Operating Margin	4.4%↑8%	4.1%↑161%	1.6%↓58%	3.8%↑224%	1.2%
ROE	-1.6%↓176%	2.1%↑104%	-50.0%↓196%	52.1%↑171%	-73.4%
Total Debt	$4.4B↑13%	$3.9B↑4%	$3.7B↑4%	$3.6B↑24%	$2.9B
Shareholders' Equity	-$683.0M↓381%	-$142.0M↓242%	$100.0M↓78%	$455.0M↑59%	$286.0M
Current Ratio	1.06↓5%	1.13↑14%	0.99↓24%	1.30↑10%	1.19
Debt / Equity	-6.47↑76%	-27.48↓174%	37.34↑373%	7.89↓22%	10.09
Operating Cash Flow	$449.0M	$450.0M↓27%	$616.0M↑200%	$205.0M↓55%	$458.0M
Free Cash Flow	$276.0M↓2%	$283.0M↑14%	$248.0M↑165%	-$380.0M↓72%	-$221.0M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

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AMBP vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$5.5BBottom 25%

Net Income$11.0MBottom 25%

ROE-1.6%Bottom 25%

D/E-6.47Top 25%

Op. Margin4.4%Bottom 25%

Curr. Ratio1.06Bottom 25%

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski	Dreman
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICAPKG	$22.4B	$251.02	$9.0B	$774.1M	16.8%	0.86	12.3%	3.17	4/9	5/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 4	6/11
Smurfit Westrock plcSW	$22.2B	$42.35	$31.2B	$699.0M	3.8%	0.75	5.5%	1.48	2/9	1/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 7	4/11
BALL CorpBALL	$17.0B	$65.47	$13.2B	$915.0M	16.9%	1.29	—	1.11	4/9	3/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 7	1/11
CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.CCK	$13.1B	$121.57	$12.4B	$738.0M	24.6%	1.96	12.6%	1.03	1/9	3/9	4/7	1/3	F-Score 8	5/11
SONOCO PRODUCTS COSON	$4.8B	$48.94	$7.5B	$1.0B	27.8%	1.20	13.5%	1.05	6/9	2/9	4/7	0/3	F-Score 6	6/11
SILGAN HOLDINGS INCSLGN	$4.3B	$40.90	$6.5B	$288.4M	12.7%	1.91	—	1.22	4/9	6/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 8	2/11
GREIF, INCGEF	$4.0B	$70.89	$5.4B	$268.8M	12.9%	1.31	8.5%	1.53	2/9	5/9	4/7	0/3	F-Score 4	4/11
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COGPK	$3.2B	$10.87	$8.6B	$444.0M	13.3%	1.67	9.3%	1.30	4/9	3/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 5	7/11