Algoma Steel Group Inc.

ASTL

Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally.

About the company

Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally.

Country: CanadaPrice: $5.45Market Cap: $574.4M

Investment snapshot

0%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

2 / 14

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

—

No comparable estimates

Models with upside

0 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Key risk

No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL · Rank #2815 (Top 90.9%)	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-12 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

Profitability0% pass✓ 1✗ 34▾
No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion
Positive EPS (10 years)3/8 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)3/8 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-32.5%
✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-63.6% (latest)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy
✗BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE-200.5%
✗Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value-111.2%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-111.2%, ROC=-86.3%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets-46.55%
✗PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY
✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-3.12%, ROA=-46.55%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-62.4%
✗Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-200.5%
✗Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/B=1.6x
✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity-57.7% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency3/6 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue-63.6%
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity-200.5%
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 10.1% -> -31.9%, operating margin 6.0% -> -63.6%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Net income / market capitalization-125.21%; #5492/6340 (top 86.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Gross profit / total assets-31.42%; #3673/3702 (top 99.2%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity-200.55%; #4875/5226 (top 93.3%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.2891; #4573/5884 (top 77.7%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years3/6 years positive
✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Valuation0% pass✓ 2✗ 26▾
No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion
Price / 3-yr avg EPS
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio1.6x
✗Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value-111.2%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-111.2%, ROC=-86.3%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
✗Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share1.6x
✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation Reasonableness
✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-50.2%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=1.6x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
✗Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low153% of trailing low ($3.56)
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Net income / market capitalization-125.21%; #5492/6340 (top 86.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.6243; #2450/6449 (top 38.0%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share1.60x
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change+78.1%
✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+2.6516; #890/5247 (top 17.0%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-50.17%; #3853/4519 (top 85.3%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-3.02%; #3009/6202 (top 48.5%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Cash Flow0% pass✓ 1✗ 11▾
No clean pass — all 10 investors flag at least one cash flow criterion
Free Cash Flow Proxy
✗BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$-288.1M
✗LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$-48.3M
✗PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-3.12%, ROA=-46.55%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-50.2%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive1/6 years FCF positive
✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-50.4%
✗Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
✗Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency4/6 years positive
✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-288.1M
✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-50.17%; #3853/4519 (top 85.3%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Growth0% pass✗ 13▾
All 8 investors flag ASTL's growth
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue Growth
✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR-71.1% CAGR over 2 years
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency3/6 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth-6.8%
✗Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 10.1% -> -31.9%, operating margin 6.0% -> -63.6%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR1.4%
✗SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Verdicts0% pass✗ 15▾
Split decision: 14 FAIL · 2 NEUTRAL
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (2/9)✗BuffettFAIL (2/9)✗LynchFAIL (0/7)✗GreenblattRank #2815✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 2)✗DremanFAIL (1/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✗AckmanFAIL (1/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (1/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1954/2370 (Top 82.4%))✗NeffFAIL (2/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
Debt & Leverage33% pass✓ 6✗ 9▾
8 of 12 flag ASTL's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +5 more
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.99
✗Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.99, IC: -18.4x
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity0.99
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities2.18
✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Debt Levels0.99
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-18.4x, D/EBITDA=N/A (D&A unavailable)
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.99
✓Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.9851; #3211/4210 (top 76.3%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Efficiency38% pass✓ 4✗ 7▾
5 of 8 flag ASTL's efficiency — Greenblatt, Piotroski, Munger +2 more
Current Ratio2.18
✓Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)17.7%
✓Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC+7.7%
✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-86.3%
✗Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY3.07 -> 2.18
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities2.18
✓Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital-107.5%
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=8.8%; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=-107.5%
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)1/3 years above 12% (latest -107.5%)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Steel Works Etc

SIC Sector: Primary Metals

Size: Small Cap($574.4M)

Revenue: $1.5B

Net Income: $719.2M

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin-63.6%

Return on Equity-200.5%

Debt / Equity0.99

Current Ratio2.18

EPS (Diluted)$-6.62−59.1% 1y

Shares Retired−0.1% / −0.8% 2y

Similar Companies

GLWCORNING INC /NY

$98.3B

HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.

$87.8B

NUENUCOR CORP

$56.6B

STLDSTEEL DYNAMICS INC

$32.6B

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Issued 0.1% of shares last year, 0.8% issued over two.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: $10.8M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22

−79.6% = −67.9% + −36.6%

FY23

−59.1% = −64.8% + 16.2%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2025 Sources 40-F · 2026-03-12	FY 2024 Sources 40-F · 2025-03-13	FY 2023 Sources 40-F · 2024-06-21	FY 2022 Sources 40-F · 2023-06-22	FY 2021 Sources 20-F · 2022-06-17
Market Cap	$574.4Mcurrent	$855.6Mest.	$835.2Mest.	$815.8Mest.	$1.2Best.
Revenue	$1.5B	--	$2.1B↑1%	$2.1B↓33%	$3.0B
Operating Income	-$968.4M	--	$123.6M↓42%	$214.8M↓81%	$1.1B
Net Income	-$719.2M	--	$77.7M↓65%	$220.8M↓68%	$687.1M
EPS (Diluted)	$-6.62	--	$0.52↓59%	$1.26↓80%	$6.21
Gross Margin	-31.9%	—	10.1%↓28%	14.0%↓65%	39.8%
Operating Margin	-63.6%	—	6.0%↓43%	10.5%↓72%	37.1%
ROE	-200.5%	—	7.0%↓66%	20.4%↓62%	54.2%
Total Debt	$353.3M	$353.9M	$0	--	$0
Shareholders' Equity	$358.6M↓66%	$1.1B↓5%	$1.1B↑3%	$1.1B↓15%	$1.3B
Current Ratio	2.18↓29%	3.07↑4%	2.95↓26%	3.98↑12%	3.57
Debt / Equity	0.99↑193%	0.34	0.00	—	0.00
Operating Cash Flow	-$48.3M	--	$217.9M↑66%	$131.1M↓87%	$1.0B
Free Cash Flow	-$288.1M	--	-$144.2M↓1%	-$143.3M↓116%	$879.0M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Steel Works Etc

ASTL vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$1.5BBottom 25%

Net Income$719.2MBottom 25%

ROE-200.5%Bottom 25%

D/E0.99Bottom 25%

Op. Margin-63.6%Bottom 25%

Curr. Ratio2.18Median

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski	Dreman
CORNING INC /NYGLW	$98.3B	$114.08	$15.6B	$1.6B	13.5%	0.71	14.6%	1.59	2/9	0/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 8	5/11
Howmet Aerospace Inc.HWM	$87.8B	$220.82	$8.3B	$1.5B	28.2%	0.57	24.8%	2.13	2/9	5/9	4/7	1/3	F-Score 8	7/11
NUCOR CORPNUE	$56.6B	$251.73	$32.5B	$1.7B	8.3%	0.33	—	2.94	4/9	2/9	5/7	0/3	F-Score 7	6/11
STEEL DYNAMICS INCSTLD	$32.6B	$229.43	$18.2B	$1.2B	13.2%	0.47	8.1%	3.06	4/9	5/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 5	5/11
TENARIS SATS	$30.9B	$61.27	$12.0B	$1.9B	11.6%	0.02	19.1%	3.87	3/9	4/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 6	6/11
ATI INCATI	$24.9B	$183.09	$4.6B	$404.3M	22.4%	0.97	14.0%	2.66	3/9	4/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 9	6/11
ALUMINUM CORP OF CHINA LTDALMMF	$16.7B	$0.93	$41.8B	$602.0M	7.7%	1.61	5.6%	0.87	2/9	2/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 6	3/11
POSCO HOLDINGS INC.PKX	$15.2B	$50.09	$50.1B	$766.9M	2.0%	0.47	2.0%	1.94	6/9	1/9	0/7	0/3	F-Score 5	8/11