AXIA Energia S.A.

AXIA

Country: BrazilPrice: $10.22Market Cap: $23.3B

Investment snapshot

12%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

6 / 8

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$7.50

-26.6% vs price

Models with upside

1 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

7 of 10 pass — Dreman, Pabrai and Oshaughnessy object

Key risk

14 of 16 flag AXIA's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +11 more

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	Not ranked	NEUTRAL	PASS	PASS	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL
Score
Analysis	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…
Intrinsic Value (annual)	N/A		N/A		N/A	N/A				N/A		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	N/A	-69.5%	N/A	-39.4%	N/A	N/A	-33.2%	-251.2%	+0.5%	N/A	-1.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2026-07-01–2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2026-07-01–2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2026-07-01–2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Cash Flow70% pass✓ 9✗ 3▾
7 of 10 pass — Dreman, Pabrai and Oshaughnessy object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$1.8B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$1.5B
✓LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$2.0B
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=4.27%, ROA=3.58%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)11.8x
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=6.5%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive7/10 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap6.4%
✓Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share15.7x
✓Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency10/10 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$1.5B
✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+6.45%; #1267/4519 (top 28.0%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

Profitability13% pass✓ 13✗ 22▾
14 of 16 flag AXIA's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +11 more
Net income / market capitalization+7.21%; #1135/6340 (top 17.9%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive EPS (10 years)1/11 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)8/11 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)6.4%
✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)48.8% (latest)
✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$1.8B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE8.5%
✗Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value9.4%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=9.4%, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets3.58%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY1.70% -> 3.58% (delta: +1.88%)
✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=4.27%, ROA=3.58%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue26.4%
✓Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity8.5%
✗Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/B=1.2x
✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity5.3% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency8/10 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue48.8%
✓Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity8.5%
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend15.2% (2022) -> 48.8% (2024)
✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 15.2% -> 48.8%
✓SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Gross profit / total assets
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity+8.52%; #2034/5226 (top 38.9%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0094; #782/5884 (top 13.3%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years
✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Growth13% pass✓ 3✗ 10▾
7 of 8 flag AXIA's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -18.8% vs Rev: -15.1%
✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction$-2.13 (2015) -> $-0.39 (2017)
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency8/10 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth3.7%
✗Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 15.2% -> 48.8%
✓SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR-2.1%
✗SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Valuation models17% pass✓ 1✗ 5▾
Models split on AXIA at $10.22 — fair values range $2.91–$10.27
Buffett fair value$6.03
✗Buffett-69.5% margin vs $10.22
Greenblatt fair value$7.33
✗Greenblatt-39.4% margin vs $10.22
Munger fair value$7.67
✗Munger-33.2% margin vs $10.22
Pabrai fair value$2.91
✗Pabrai-251.2% margin vs $10.22
Akre fair value$10.27
✓Akre+0.5% margin vs $10.22
Ackman fair value$10.11
✗Ackman-1.1% margin vs $10.22
Verdicts20% pass✓ 2✗ 8▾
Split decision: 8 FAIL · 6 NEUTRAL · 2 PASS
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)✗BuffettFAIL (2/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)•GreenblattNot ranked•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 6)✓DremanPASS (5/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)•AckmanNEUTRAL (6/9)•TempletonNEUTRAL (5/8)•SleepNEUTRAL (4/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
Valuation23% pass✓ 8✗ 20▾
10 of 13 flag AXIA's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +7 more
Price / Book Value per Share1.2x
✓Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Net income / market capitalization+7.21%; #1135/6340 (top 17.9%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Price / 3-yr avg EPS
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio1.2x
✓Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value9.4%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=9.4%, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)11.8x
✗Dreman< 8x
Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=7.7%
✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=6.5%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=1.2x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share15.7x
✓Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.8469; #1808/6449 (top 28.0%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share3.33x
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change
✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.2793; #3418/5247 (top 65.1%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+6.45%; #1267/4519 (top 28.0%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Efficiency25% pass✓ 3✗ 8▾
6 of 8 flag AXIA's efficiency — Buffett, Greenblatt, Piotroski +3 more
Current Ratio2.04
✓Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)5.3%
✗Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC-4.7%
✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)
✗Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY1.76 -> 2.04
✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.14x -> 0.14x
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities2.04
✓Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital8.3%
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2022: ROIC=2.5%; FY2023: ROIC=5.4%; FY2024: ROIC=8.3%
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC7.3% (RR=87% x ROIC=8.3%)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest 8.3%)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Debt & Leverage33% pass✓ 6✗ 9▾
8 of 12 flag AXIA's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +5 more
LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $10.2B vs NCA $5.3B
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.52, IC: 1.9x
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity0.52
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$-10.1B
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change18.19% -> 21.67%
✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities2.04
✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.52
✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels0.52
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=1.9x, D/EBITDA=2.7x
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.52
✓Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.5244; #2516/4210 (top 59.8%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2024. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Utilities

SIC Sector: Electric, Gas & Sanitary Services

Size: Large Cap($23.3B)

Revenue: $6.5B-15.1% YoY

Net Income: $1.7B+79.1% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin48.8%

Return on Equity8.5%

Debt / Equity0.52

Current Ratio2.04

Buybacks (1y)$18.6M

Buybacks (2y)$424.2M

Shares Retired0.0% / −0.3% 2y

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Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2024

Retired 0.0% of shares last year, 0.3% issued over two.

Buybacks: $18.6M
Dividends: $211.7M

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2024 Sources 20-F · 2025-04-17	FY 2023 Sources 20-F · 2024-04-25	FY 2022 Sources 20-F · 2023-04-20	FY 2021 Sources 20-F · 2022-05-06	FY 2020 Sources 20-F · 2021-05-10
Market Cap	$23.3Bcurrent	--	--	--	--
Revenue	$6.5B↓15%	$7.7B↑19%	$6.4B↑4%	$6.2B↑33%	$4.7B
Operating Income	$3.2B↑40%	$2.3B↑132%	$977.2M↓44%	$1.8B↑54%	$1.1B
Net Income	$1.7B↑79%	$938.1M↑36%	$687.9M↓32%	$1.0B↓13%	$1.2B
EPS (Diluted)	--	--	--	--	--
Gross Margin	—	—	—	72.0%	—
Operating Margin	48.8%↑65%	29.6%↑96%	15.2%↓46%	28.3%↑16%	24.4%
ROE	8.5%↑110%	4.1%↑23%	3.3%↓56%	7.4%↓14%	8.6%
Total Debt	$10.3B	$10.4B↑3%	$10.1B↑28%	$7.9B↓9%	$8.6B
Shareholders' Equity	$19.7B↓15%	$23.2B↑11%	$20.9B↑53%	$13.7B↑1%	$13.5B
Current Ratio	2.04↑16%	1.76↓6%	1.88↑13%	1.66↑2%	1.64
Debt / Equity	0.52↑17%	0.45↓7%	0.48↓17%	0.58↓10%	0.64
Operating Cash Flow	$2.0B↑18%	$1.7B↑73%	$983.1M↓21%	$1.3B↑33%	$942.9M
Free Cash Flow	$1.5B↑67%	$901.5M↑32%	$683.1M↓35%	$1.1B↑37%	$772.6M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Utilities

AXIA vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$6.5BBottom 25%

Net Income$1.7BMedian

ROE8.5%Bottom 25%

D/E0.52Top 25%

Op. Margin48.8%Top 25%

Curr. Ratio2.04Top 25%

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski	Dreman
SOUTHERN COSO	$109.0B	$93.59	$29.6B	$4.3B	12.1%	2.00	24.7%	0.65	2/9	2/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 5	3/11
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INCAEP	$70.3B	$129.18	$21.9B	$3.7B	11.9%	1.52	24.3%	0.45	4/9	3/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 5	3/11
Cheniere Energy, Inc.LNG	$63.0B	$308.75	$20.0B	$5.3B	67.3%	2.88	45.6%	0.94	2/9	4/9	4/7	0/3	F-Score 8	3/11
DOMINION ENERGY, INCD	$59.5B	$67.66	$16.5B	$3.0B	10.3%	1.60	26.7%	0.77	2/9	0/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 6	3/11
ATMOS ENERGY CORPATO	$29.8B	$176.30	$4.7B	$1.2B	8.8%	0.66	33.2%	0.77	3/9	3/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 6	3/11
EVERSOURCE ENERGYES	$27.0B	$71.73	$13.5B	$1.7B	10.5%	1.75	22.1%	0.65	2/9	2/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 6	4/11
PPL CorpPPL	$26.9B	$35.67	$9.0B	$1.2B	7.9%	1.27	23.5%	0.86	2/9	0/9	0/7	0/3	F-Score 5	2/11
ALLIANT ENERGY CORPLNT	$19.0B	$73.43	$4.4B	$810.0M	11.0%	1.64	23.5%	0.80	2/9	2/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 6	2/11