BP PLC

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Profitability0% pass✓ 5✗ 30▾

  No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

  Positive EPS (10 years)0/12 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)8/12 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)5.8%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)6.6% (latest)

  ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE0.1%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value8.0%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=8.0%, ROC=11.9%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets0.02%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY0.13% -> 0.02% (delta: -0.12%)

  ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=8.79%, ROA=0.02%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue4.0%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity0.1%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of Safety

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity7.5% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic Value

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency8/11 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue6.6%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity0.1%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend12.8% (2023) -> 6.6% (2025)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue flat/down, operating margin 12.8% -> 6.6%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization+0.05%; #3172/6340 (top 50.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+0.10%; #2904/5226 (top 55.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0230; #1599/5884 (top 27.2%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Debt & Leverage0% pass✗ 15▾

  All 12 investors flag BP's debt & leverage

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $54.6B vs NCA $21.2B

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 1.09, IC: 2.5x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity1.09

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-37.4B

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change19.51% -> 19.60%

  ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.26

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity1.09

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels1.09

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=2.5x, D/EBITDA=1.9x

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity1.09

  ✗Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-1.0925; #3312/4210 (top 78.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation0% pass✗ 28▾

  All 13 investors flag BP's valuation

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value8.0%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=8.0%, ROC=11.9%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation Reasonableness

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF Yield

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical Average

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic Value

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low166% of trailing low ($27.46)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization+0.05%; #3172/6340 (top 50.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.4507; #3062/6449 (top 47.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+1.6358; #1247/5247 (top 23.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+9.15%; #1902/6202 (top 30.7%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Verdicts7% pass✓ 1✗ 14▾

  Split decision: 13 FAIL · 2 NEUTRAL · 1 PASS

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (3/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)✗GreenblattRank #1036✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 5)✗DremanFAIL (2/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✗AckmanFAIL (1/9)✗TempletonFAIL (2/8)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (1/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Growth13% pass✓ 3✗ 10▾

  7 of 8 flag BP's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -3.2% vs Rev: -1.1%

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency8/11 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth-8.6%

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue flat/down, operating margin 12.8% -> 6.6%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR12.0%

  ✓SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Cash Flow20% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

  8 of 10 flag BP's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Dreman +5 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$24.5B

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=8.79%, ROA=0.02%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF Yield

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency11/11 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Efficiency25% pass✓ 4✗ 7▾

  6 of 8 flag BP's efficiency — Graham, Greenblatt, Dreman +3 more

  Current Ratio1.26

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)13.1%

  ✓Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC+3.1%

  ✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)11.9%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY1.25 -> 1.26

  ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.69x -> 0.69x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.26

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital9.0%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=17.7%; FY2024: ROIC=7.5%; FY2025: ROIC=9.0%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC0.0% (RR=0% x ROIC=9.0%)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)2/5 years above 12% (latest 9.0%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years