Constellation Energy Corp

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Valuation0% pass✓ 2✗ 26▾

  No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

  Net income / market capitalization+4.44%; #1861/6340 (top 29.4%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS34.6x

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio6.0x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B208.30

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 37.9x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value5.1%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=5.1%, ROC=12.6%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS37.9x

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)20.6x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share6.0x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=37.9x, OE Yield=2.3%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=37.9x, FCF Yield=1.3%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=37.9x, P/B=6.0x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic Value-130.6% (IV=$121.50 vs Price=$280.20)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share67.9x

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low139% of trailing low ($201.63)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.3320; #3551/6449 (top 55.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS37.9x

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share6.29x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change+35.5%

  ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.3476; #3120/5247 (top 59.5%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+1.36%; #2346/4519 (top 51.9%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-2.20%; #2938/6202 (top 47.4%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Efficiency0% pass✓ 1✗ 10▾

  No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one efficiency criterion

  Current Ratio1.49

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)8.0%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-2.0%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)12.6%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY1.57 -> 1.53

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.45x -> 0.45x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.49

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital9.1%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=6.9%; FY2024: ROIC=15.9%; FY2025: ROIC=11.2%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC7.9% (RR=87% x ROIC=9.1%)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)1/5 years above 12% (latest 11.2%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Valuation models0% pass✗ 10▾

  CEG overvalued: all 10 models price fair value below $280.20 (median $73.90)

  Graham fair value$88.02

  ✗Graham-218.3% margin vs $280.20

  Buffett fair value$87.84

  ✗Buffett-219.0% margin vs $280.20

  Greenblatt fair value$76.37

  ✗Greenblatt-266.9% margin vs $280.20

  Dreman fair value$121.50

  ✗Dreman-130.6% margin vs $280.20

  Munger fair value$58.23

  ✗Munger-381.2% margin vs $280.20

  Pabrai fair value$115.13

  ✗Pabrai-143.4% margin vs $280.20

  Akre fair value$66.29

  ✗Akre-322.7% margin vs $280.20

  Marks fair value$59.53

  ✗Marks-370.7% margin vs $280.20

  Ackman fair value$56.26

  ✗Ackman-398.0% margin vs $280.20

  Templeton fair value$71.43

  ✗Templeton-292.3% margin vs $280.20
• Profitability13% pass✓ 10✗ 25▾

  14 of 16 flag CEG's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +11 more

  Net income / market capitalization+4.44%; #1861/6340 (top 29.4%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive EPS (10 years)3/7 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)4/7 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)11.2%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)12.1% (latest)

  ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$2.3B

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)1.16

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 37.9x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE13.4%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value5.1%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=5.1%, ROC=12.6%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets4.05%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY7.08% -> 4.05% (delta: -3.03%)

  ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=7.40%, ROA=4.05%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue17.4%

  ✓Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity13.4%

  ✓Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/E=37.9x, P/B=6.0x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity19.8% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic Value-130.6% (IV=$121.50 vs Price=$280.20)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency4/6 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue17.5%

  ✓Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity13.4%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend6.5% (2023) -> 12.1% (2025)

  ✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 6.5% -> 12.1%

  ✓SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Gross profit / total assets

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+13.36%; #1331/5226 (top 25.5%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0284; #1834/5884 (top 31.2%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years3/6 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Growth25% pass✓ 4✗ 9▾

  6 of 8 flag CEG's growth — Graham, Lynch, Marks +3 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 37.9x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 8.5% vs Rev: 8.3%

  ✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction$0.00 (2020) -> $7.40 (2025)

  ✓DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR21.5% CAGR over 2 years

  ✓Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency4/6 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth2.0%

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 6.5% -> 12.1%

  ✓SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR7.7%

  ✓SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Verdicts27% pass✓ 4✗ 11▾

  Split decision: 10 FAIL · 4 PASS · 2 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)✗GreenblattRank #1335•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 6)✓DremanPASS (6/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✓AckmanPASS (4/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (3/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #820/963 (Top 85.2%))
• Cash Flow30% pass✓ 4✗ 8▾

  7 of 10 flag CEG's cash flow — Buffett, Dreman, Pabrai +4 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$2.3B

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$1.3B

  ✓LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$4.2B

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=7.40%, ROA=4.05%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)20.6x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=37.9x, FCF Yield=1.3%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive1/6 years FCF positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap1.5%

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share67.9x

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency2/6 years positive

  ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$1.3B

  ✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+1.36%; #2346/4519 (top 51.9%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Debt & Leverage33% pass✓ 6✗ 9▾

  8 of 12 flag CEG's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +5 more

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $19.0B vs NCA $6.2B

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.59, IC: 6.9x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity0.59

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-18.4B

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change13.95% -> 12.66%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.49

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.59

  ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels0.59

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=7.5x, D/EBITDA=1.3x

  ✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.59

  ✓Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.5930; #2648/4210 (top 62.9%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section