Genius Sports Ltd

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Profitability0% pass✓ 2✗ 33▾

  No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

  Positive EPS (10 years)0/8 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)0/8 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-31.4%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-22.6% (latest)

  ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-62.9M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)N/A (negative mean EPS)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE-15.4%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value-10.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-10.8%, ROC=N/A (invested capital <= 0)

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets-9.87%

  ✗PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-7.96% -> -9.87% (delta: -1.91%)

  ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=7.64%, ROA=-9.87%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY25.2% -> 23.0%

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-17.6%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-15.4%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/B=2.2x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity-13.8% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency0/7 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue-22.6%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity-15.4%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend-18.0% (2023) -> -22.6% (2025)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 16.7% -> 23.0%, operating margin -18.0% -> -22.6%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization-6.65%; #3994/6340 (top 63.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+13.61%; #2520/3702 (top 68.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity-15.40%; #3577/5226 (top 68.4%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.2218; #4327/5884 (top 73.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years0/7 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Debt & Leverage8% pass✓ 3✗ 12▾

  11 of 12 flag GENI's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more

  LT Debt vs Net Current Assets

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest Coverage

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.56

  ✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-38.1x, D/EBITDA=N/A

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity

  ✗Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation8% pass✓ 2✗ 26▾

  12 of 13 flag GENI's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +9 more

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio2.2x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value-10.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-10.8%, ROC=N/A (invested capital <= 0)

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)18.5x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share2.2x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-3.9%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=3.8%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=2.2x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share24.7x

  ✓Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low160% of trailing low ($3.92)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization-6.65%; #3994/6340 (top 63.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.4320; #3133/6449 (top 48.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share6.58x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change-39.2%

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.3992; #2929/5247 (top 55.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+3.85%; #1834/4519 (top 40.6%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+59.69%; #557/6202 (top 9.0%)

  ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Growth13% pass✓ 4✗ 9▾

  7 of 8 flag GENI's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -41.1% vs Rev: 31.0%

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction$-1.00 (2019) -> $-0.44 (2025)

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency0/7 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth23.7%

  ✓Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 16.7% -> 23.0%, operating margin -18.0% -> -22.6%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR34.9%

  ✓SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Efficiency13% pass✓ 2✗ 9▾

  7 of 8 flag GENI's efficiency — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +4 more

  Current Ratio1.56

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)-36.7%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-46.7%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)N/A (invested capital <= 0)

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY1.43 -> 1.56

  ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.64x -> 0.59x

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.56

  ✓Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-10.1%; FY2024: ROIC=-8.1%; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)0/4 years above 12% (latest -8.1%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Verdicts21% pass✓ 3✗ 11▾

  Split decision: 11 FAIL · 3 PASS · 2 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗DremanFAIL (2/11)✗MungerFAIL (0/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✓AckmanPASS (5/9)✗TempletonFAIL (1/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)✗SchlossFAIL (1/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Cash Flow50% pass✓ 7✗ 5▾

  5 of 10 pass — Buffett, Lynch, Dreman +2 more object

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-62.9M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$64.5M

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$86.4M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=7.64%, ROA=-9.87%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)18.5x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=3.8%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive4/7 years FCF positive

  ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap4.0%

  ✓Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share24.7x

  ✓Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency5/7 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$64.5M

  ✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+3.85%; #1834/4519 (top 40.6%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation models50% pass✓ 1✗ 1▾

  Models split on GENI at $6.26 — fair values range $4.62–$9.08

  Munger fair value$4.62

  ✗Munger-35.5% margin vs $6.26

  Ackman fair value$9.08

  ✓Ackman+31.1% margin vs $6.26