GFL Environmental Inc.

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Debt & Leverage8% pass✓ 1✗ 14▾

  11 of 12 flag GFL's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $5.4B vs NCA $-608.8M

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 1.02, IC: 1.5x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity1.02

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-5.4B

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change41.74% -> 38.47%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.58

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity1.02

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels1.02

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=1.5x, D/EBITDA=N/A (D&A unavailable)

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity1.02

  ✗Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-1.0164; #3241/4210 (top 77.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Profitability13% pass✓ 10✗ 25▾

  14 of 16 flag GFL's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +11 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)1/9 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)2/9 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)5.4%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 5.7x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE52.5%

  ✓Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value2.1%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=2.1%, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets19.87%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-3.41% -> 19.87% (delta: +23.28%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.82%, ROA=19.87%

  ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY18.4% -> 20.7%

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue3.4%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity52.5%

  ✓Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/E=5.7x, P/B=2.9x

  ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity14.3% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic Value-46.4% (IV=$28.63 vs Price=$41.92)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency2/7 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity52.5%

  ✓Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization+15.10%; #366/6340 (top 5.8%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+7.09%; #2989/3702 (top 80.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+52.50%; #205/5226 (top 3.9%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0885; #3327/5884 (top 56.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years1/7 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Growth13% pass✓ 4✗ 9▾

  7 of 8 flag GFL's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 5.7x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -40.7% vs Rev: 12.9%

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency2/7 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth12.9%

  ✓Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency4/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR8.0%

  ✓SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Efficiency13% pass✓ 2✗ 9▾

  7 of 8 flag GFL's efficiency — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +4 more

  Current Ratio0.58

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY0.54 -> 0.58

  ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.29x -> 0.34x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.58

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Valuation15% pass✓ 10✗ 18▾

  11 of 13 flag GFL's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +8 more

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS22.0x

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio2.9x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B64.10

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 5.7x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value2.1%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=2.1%, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS5.7x

  ✓Dreman< 12x✓Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)16.2x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share2.9x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=5.7x

  ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=5.7x

  ✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=5.7x, P/B=2.9x

  ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic Value-46.4% (IV=$28.63 vs Price=$41.92)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low105% of trailing low ($40.11)

  ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization+15.10%; #366/6340 (top 5.8%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.2876; #3745/6449 (top 58.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS5.7x

  ✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per ShareN/A (non-positive TBVPS)

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change+16.8%

  ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.2606; #3503/5247 (top 66.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-2.69%; #2986/6202 (top 48.1%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Cash Flow20% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

  8 of 10 flag GFL's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Piotroski +5 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$961.0M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.82%, ROA=19.87%

  ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)16.2x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=5.7x

  ✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency7/7 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Verdicts36% pass✓ 5✗ 9▾

  Split decision: 9 FAIL · 4 PASS · 2 NEUTRAL · 1 BUY

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✓PiotroskiBUY (F-Score 8)✗DremanFAIL (3/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)•PabraiNEUTRAL (2/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✓AckmanPASS (5/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1214/2370 (Top 51.2%))✗NeffFAIL (3/6)✗SchlossFAIL (2/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Valuation models40% pass✓ 2✗ 3▾

  Models split on GFL at $41.92 — fair values range $4.28–$123.38

  Graham fair value$48.57

  ✓Graham+13.7% margin vs $41.92

  Greenblatt fair value$4.66

  ✗Greenblatt-799.6% margin vs $41.92

  Dreman fair value$28.63

  ✗Dreman-46.4% margin vs $41.92

  Pabrai fair value$123.38

  ✓Pabrai+66.0% margin vs $41.92

  Templeton fair value$4.28

  ✗Templeton-879.4% margin vs $41.92