Horizon Technology Finance Corp

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Debt & Leverage0% pass✗ 15▾

  All 12 investors flag HRZN's debt & leverage

  LT Debt vs Net Current Assets

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 1.49, IC: N/A

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity1.11

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-382.7M

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change56.93% -> 58.32%

  ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity1.11

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels1.11

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDA

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity1.11

  ✗Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-1.1120; #3333/4210 (top 79.2%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation0% pass✓ 9✗ 19▾

  No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio0.5x

  ✓Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)3.0x

  ✓Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share0.5x

  ✓Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✓SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation Reasonableness

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF Yield

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=0.5x

  ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low100% of trailing low ($3.72)

  ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization-22.24%; #4621/6340 (top 72.9%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+1.4946; #916/6449 (top 14.2%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share0.53x

  ✓SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change-39.1%

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-15.26%; #3734/6202 (top 60.2%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Growth0% pass✓ 1✗ 12▾

  No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-130.2%

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction$0.86 (2022) -> $-0.06 (2025)

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency3/6 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/3 years with positive EPS growth

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Efficiency0% pass✗ 11▾

  All 8 investors flag HRZN's efficiency

  Current Ratio

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Valuation models0% pass✗ 2▾

  HRZN overvalued: all 2 models price fair value below $3.72 (median $0.30)

  Marks fair value$0.30

  ✗Marks-1140.0% margin vs $3.72

  Templeton fair value$0.30

  ✗Templeton-1140.0% margin vs $3.72
• Profitability6% pass✓ 3✗ 32▾

  15 of 16 flag HRZN's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +12 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)1/6 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-130.2%

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)3/6 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-0.3%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE-14.9%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets-0.33%

  ✗PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-0.69% -> -0.33% (delta: +0.36%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.98%, ROA=-0.33%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-14.9%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/B=0.5x

  ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity-2.6% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency3/6 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity-14.9%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization-22.24%; #4621/6340 (top 72.9%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity-14.88%; #3564/5226 (top 68.2%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0272; #1785/5884 (top 30.3%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Verdicts7% pass✓ 1✗ 13▾

  Split decision: 13 FAIL · 2 NEUTRAL · 1 PASS

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 3)✗DremanFAIL (3/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✗AckmanFAIL (0/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✗SleepFAIL (0/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Cash Flow20% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

  8 of 10 flag HRZN's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Pabrai +5 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$56.6M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.98%, ROA=-0.33%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)3.0x

  ✓Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF Yield

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency2/6 years positive

  ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section