Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Valuation8% pass✓ 5✗ 23▾

  12 of 13 flag KNX's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +9 more

  Price / Book Value per Share1.5x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS77.2x

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio1.5x

  ✓Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B112.90

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 155.6x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value2.9%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=2.9%, ROC=5.7%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS155.6x

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)8.2x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=155.6x, OE Yield=8.2%

  ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=155.6x

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=155.6x, P/B=1.5x

  ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic Value-414.5% (IV=$12.40 vs Price=$63.80)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low163% of trailing low ($39.17)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization+1.48%; #2857/6340 (top 45.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.6811; #2259/6449 (top 35.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS155.6x

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E-0.18

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share8.55x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change+26.7%

  ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.7706; #2093/5247 (top 39.9%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-1.69%; #2905/6202 (top 46.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Profitability13% pass✓ 5✗ 30▾

  14 of 16 flag KNX's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +11 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)15/18 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)15/18 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)5.6%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)2.9% (latest)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-57.8M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 155.6x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR-29.8%

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE2.2%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value2.9%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=2.9%, ROC=5.7%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets0.55%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY0.93% -> 0.55% (delta: -0.37%)

  ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=10.59%, ROA=0.55%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue2.7%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity2.2%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/E=155.6x, P/B=1.5x

  ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity1.9% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic Value-414.5% (IV=$12.40 vs Price=$63.80)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency15/17 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue4.2%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity2.2%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR-29.8% CAGR over 5 years

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend4.7% (2023) -> 2.9% (2025)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 4.7% -> 2.9%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization+1.48%; #2857/6340 (top 45.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+2.17%; #2748/5226 (top 52.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0294; #1885/5884 (top 32.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-29.8% over 5 years

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years10/10 years positive

  ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Growth13% pass✓ 3✗ 10▾

  7 of 8 flag KNX's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 155.6x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR-29.8%

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency15/17 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth0.8%

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR-29.8% CAGR over 5 years

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 4.7% -> 2.9%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR9.8%

  ✓SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-29.8% over 5 years

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Efficiency13% pass✓ 2✗ 9▾

  7 of 8 flag KNX's efficiency — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +4 more

  Current Ratio0.91

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)6.4%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-3.6%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)5.7%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY0.85 -> 0.86

  ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.58x -> 0.62x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.91

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital3.1%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=3.5%; FY2024: ROIC=2.5%; FY2025: ROIC=2.2%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC0.5% (RR=17% x ROIC=3.1%)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)1/5 years above 12% (latest 2.2%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Valuation models17% pass✓ 1✗ 5▾

  Models split on KNX at $63.80 — fair values range $12.40–$96.39

  Graham fair value$20.06

  ✗Graham-218.0% margin vs $63.80

  Greenblatt fair value$12.93

  ✗Greenblatt-393.4% margin vs $63.80

  Dreman fair value$12.40

  ✗Dreman-414.5% margin vs $63.80

  Pabrai fair value$23.64

  ✗Pabrai-169.9% margin vs $63.80

  Akre fair value$96.39

  ✓Akre+33.8% margin vs $63.80

  Templeton fair value$34.98

  ✗Templeton-82.4% margin vs $63.80
• Verdicts25% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

  Split decision: 8 FAIL · 5 NEUTRAL · 3 PASS

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (2/9)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (3/7)✗GreenblattRank #1679✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 5)✗DremanFAIL (2/11)•MungerNEUTRAL (3/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)•MarksNEUTRAL (4/5)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Cash Flow30% pass✓ 4✗ 8▾

  7 of 10 flag KNX's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-57.8M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$9.6M

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$1.3B

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=10.59%, ROA=0.55%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)8.2x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=155.6x

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive8/11 years FCF positive

  ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency17/17 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Debt & Leverage50% pass✓ 9✗ 6▾

  6 of 12 pass — Graham, Buffett, Piotroski +3 more object

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $231.9M vs NCA $-103.6M

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.23, IC: 4.3x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity0.23

  ✓Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$22.3M

  ✓LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change14.38% -> 14.59%

  ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.91

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.23

  ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels0.23

  ✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=4.3x, D/EBITDA=1.5x

  ✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.23

  ✓Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.2312; #1792/4210 (top 42.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section