Open Lending Corp

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Profitability0% pass✓ 2✗ 33▾

  No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

  Positive EPS (10 years)3/9 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)5/9 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-8.9%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-5.4% (latest)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-1.9M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE-7.1%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  Net Income / Total Assets-1.79%

  ✗PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-45.55% -> -1.79% (delta: +43.77%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-1.35%, ROA=-1.79%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-7.3%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-7.1%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Return on Equity-7.1%

  ✗Munger> 15%✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Margin of SafetyP/TBV=4.9x

  ✗PabraiP/TBV < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  ROE (high and growing)FY2023: ROE=10.7%; FY2024: ROE=-172.9%; FY2025: ROE=-5.7%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROE > 15% in each

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency5/8 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue-7.2%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity-7.1%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend24.8% (2023) -> -5.4% (2025)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 81.0% -> 76.9%, operating margin 24.8% -> -5.4%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  ROE (5-year)2/5 years above 12% (latest -5.7%)

  ✗SleepROE > 12% in a majority of years

  Net income / market capitalization-1.43%; #3464/6340 (top 54.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+29.85%; #1437/3702 (top 38.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity-7.05%; #3298/5226 (top 63.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.2975; #4598/5884 (top 78.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years3/8 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Valuation0% pass✓ 2✗ 24▾

  No clean pass — all 12 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Tangible-Book Ratio4.9x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/TBV

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share4.9x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-0.5%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-0.9%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=4.9x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low253% of trailing low ($1.24)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Price / Book Value per Share4.9x

  ✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Net income / market capitalization-1.43%; #3464/6340 (top 54.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.2027; #4170/6449 (top 64.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Book Value per Share Change+203.5%

  ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.2404; #3592/5247 (top 68.5%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-0.04%; #2544/4519 (top 56.3%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+78.41%; #440/6202 (top 7.1%)

  ✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Growth0% pass✗ 12▾

  All 8 investors flag LPRO's growth

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR-60.6% CAGR over 2 years

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency5/8 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth-34.6%

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 81.0% -> 76.9%, operating margin 24.8% -> -5.4%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR-3.1%

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Verdicts7% pass✓ 1✗ 13▾

  Split decision: 13 FAIL · 2 NEUTRAL · 1 PASS

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (0/7)✗BuffettFAIL (0/6)✗LynchFAIL (0/4)•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 5)✗DremanFAIL (0/9)✗MungerFAIL (1/3)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/5)✗MarksFAIL (1/4)✗AckmanFAIL (1/8)✗TempletonFAIL (1/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1617/2370 (Top 68.2%))✗NeffFAIL (0/6)✗SchlossFAIL (2/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Cash Flow20% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

  8 of 10 flag LPRO's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Piotroski +5 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-1.9M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$-0.1M

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$-3.2M

  ✗PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-1.35%, ROA=-1.79%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-0.9%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive7/8 years FCF positive

  ✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-0.0%

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency7/8 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-0.1M

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-0.04%; #2544/4519 (top 56.3%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Debt & Leverage25% pass✓ 2✗ 3▾

  3 of 4 flag LPRO's debt & leverage — Templeton, Asness and Schloss

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change44.61% -> 32.65%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity1.10

  ✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-1.1013; #3323/4210 (top 78.9%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities4.44x

  ✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
• Efficiency33% pass✓ 1✗ 2▾

  2 of 3 flag LPRO's efficiency — Akre and Sleep

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.08x -> 0.39x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROE (5-year)2/5 years above 12% (latest -5.7%)

  ✗SleepROE > 12% in a majority of years
• Valuation models50% pass✓ 2✗ 2▾

  Models split on LPRO at $3.14 — fair values range $0.47–$24.88

  Munger fair value$24.88

  ✓Munger+87.4% margin vs $3.14

  Pabrai fair value$3.18

  ✓Pabrai+1.3% margin vs $3.14

  Akre fair value$0.47

  ✗Akre-568.1% margin vs $3.14

  Templeton fair value$2.10

  ✗Templeton-49.5% margin vs $3.14