Mueller Water Products, Inc.
MWAAbout the company
Mueller Water Products, Inc. manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions.
Investment snapshot
Positive
5
BUY / PASS
Neutral / negative
7 / 4
NEUTRAL / FAIL
Median fair value
$13.13
-45.7% vs price
Models with upside
2 / 17
Positive margin of safety
Strongest signal
9 of 12 pass — Lynch, Akre and Asness object
Key risk
Split decision: 7 NEUTRAL · 4 FAIL · 3 BUY · 2 PASS
Framework analysis
| Verdict | Meaning |
|---|---|
| BUY | Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met. |
| PASS | The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state. |
| NEUTRAL | Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position. |
| FAIL | The company does not clear the framework's requirements. |
| Ranked | Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL. |
Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.
| Metric | Graham Defensive Value | Buffett Quality Compounder | Lynch GARP | Greenblatt Magic Formula | Piotroski F-Score | Dreman Contrarian Value | Munger Quality Focus | Pabrai Dhandho Framework | Akre Three-Legged Stool | Marks Risk-Aware Value | Ackman Activist Value | Templeton Global Bargain Hunter | Sleep Scale Economies Shared | Asness Systematic Factors | Neff Low-P/E Total Return | Schloss Asset-Value Discipline | O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | PASS | PASS | BUY | BUY · Rank #448 (Top 14.5%) | NEUTRAL | NEUTRAL | NEUTRAL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | BUY | NEUTRAL | NEUTRAL | BUY | NEUTRAL | NEUTRAL | FAIL |
| Score | |||||||||||||||||
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| Intrinsic Value (annual) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||
| Margin of Safety | -84.3% | +7.9% | +2.9% | -152.1% | N/A | -92.8% | -34.0% | -119.8% | -72.2% | -157.4% | -48.8% | -135.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Financial Basis | TTM ended 2026-06-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2025-11-19 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 · TTM ended 2026-06-30 vs 2025-06-30 · TTM ended 2026-06-30 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | TTM ended 2026-06-30 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2025-11-19 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-06-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-06-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2025-11-19 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment · TTM ended 2026-06-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-11-19 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-06-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-11-19 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | TTM ended 2026-06-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-06-30 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-06-30 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | TTM ended 2026-06-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-08-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14 |
Where It Passes
- Debt & Leverage75% pass✓ 12✗ 3▾
9 of 12 pass — Lynch, Akre and Asness object
Debt Levels0.40✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $451.3M vs NCA $886.5M✓GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current AssetsDebt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.46, IC: 13.0x✓BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5xTotal Debt / Equity0.40✗Lynch< 0.33Cash - Long-term Debt$44.0M✓LynchPositive preferredLT Debt / Total Assets Change27.43% -> 24.49%✓PiotroskiDecreased YoYCurrent Assets / Current Liabilities4.64✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.40✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00xInterest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=13.0x, D/EBITDA=1.5x✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4xTotal Debt / Shareholders Equity0.40✓Ackman<= 1.0Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.4042; #2255/4210 (top 53.6%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section - Cash Flow70% pass✓ 9✗ 3▾
7 of 10 pass — Dreman, Pabrai and Oshaughnessy object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$191.7M✓BuffettPositive and growingFCF Positive and Growing$179.6M✓LynchPositive and growingOperating Cash Flow$219.3M✓PiotroskiCFO > 0(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=11.93%, ROA=10.42%✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROAPrice / (CFO / Shares)17.3x✗Dreman< 8xP/E or FCF YieldP/E=19.8x, FCF Yield=4.6%✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%FCF Positive18/19 years FCF positive✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap4.7%✓Ackman>= 4%Price / FCF per Share22.0x✓Ackman<= 25Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency19/19 years positive✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available yearsOperating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$179.6M✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+4.77%; #1627/4519 (top 36.0%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section - Verdicts60% pass✓ 6✗ 4▾
Split decision: 7 NEUTRAL · 4 FAIL · 3 BUY · 2 PASS
Overall verdict✓GrahamPASS (4/9)✓BuffettPASS (4/9)✓LynchBUY (5/7)✓GreenblattRank #448•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 7)•DremanNEUTRAL (7/11)•MungerNEUTRAL (3/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (2/6)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)✓AckmanBUY (8/9)•TempletonNEUTRAL (6/8)•SleepNEUTRAL (4/6)✓AsnessBUY (Rank #579/2370 (Top 24.4%))•NeffNEUTRAL (4/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (5/7)✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #775/963 (Top 80.5%))
Where It Falls Short
- Valuation models18% pass✓ 2✗ 9▾
Models split on MWA at $24.20 — fair values range $9.40–$26.29
Graham fair value$13.13✗Graham-84.3% margin vs $24.20Buffett fair value$26.29✓Buffett+7.9% margin vs $24.20Lynch fair value$24.92✓Lynch+2.9% margin vs $24.20Greenblatt fair value$9.60✗Greenblatt-152.1% margin vs $24.20Dreman fair value$12.55✗Dreman-92.8% margin vs $24.20Munger fair value$18.06✗Munger-34.0% margin vs $24.20Pabrai fair value$11.01✗Pabrai-119.8% margin vs $24.20Akre fair value$14.05✗Akre-72.2% margin vs $24.20Marks fair value$9.40✗Marks-157.4% margin vs $24.20Ackman fair value$16.26✗Ackman-48.8% margin vs $24.20Templeton fair value$10.29✗Templeton-135.2% margin vs $24.20 - Valuation23% pass✓ 7✗ 21▾
10 of 13 flag MWA's valuation — Graham, Greenblatt, Dreman +7 more
Net income / market capitalization+5.90%; #1434/6340 (top 22.6%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionPrice / 3-yr avg EPS28.9x✗Graham<= 15xPrice-to-Book Ratio3.9x✗Graham<= 1.5xP/E x P/B111.50✗Graham<= 22.5Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.97✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)EBIT / Enterprise Value7.7%✗Greenblatt> 10%Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=7.7%, ROC=38.9%✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%Price / EPS19.8x✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)Price / (CFO / Shares)17.3x✗Dreman< 8xPrice / Book Value per Share3.9x✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=19.8x, OE Yield=5.1%✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%P/E or FCF YieldP/E=19.8x, FCF Yield=4.6%✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=19.8x, P/B=3.9x✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0Discount to Intrinsic Value-92.8% (IV=$12.55 vs Price=$24.20)✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic valuePrice / FCF per Share22.0x✓Ackman<= 25Price vs. Trailing Low112% of trailing low ($21.63)✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.2977; #3704/6449 (top 57.4%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionPrice / Diluted EPS19.8x✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E1.52✓Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)Price / Tangible Book Value per Share6.46x✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)Book Value per Share Change+54.9%✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)Revenue / market capitalization+0.3931; #2945/5247 (top 56.1%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+4.77%; #1627/4519 (top 36.0%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionTrailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-18.49%; #3891/6202 (top 62.7%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section - Profitability38% pass✓ 19✗ 16▾
10 of 16 flag MWA's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +7 more
Net income / market capitalization+5.90%; #1434/6340 (top 22.6%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionPositive EPS (10 years)15/24 years positive✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 yearsEPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)✗Graham>= 33% growthNet Income Positive (10+ years)17/24 years positive✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ yearsROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)13.5%✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)Operating Margin (10-yr trend)18.2% (latest)✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 yearsFree Cash Flow Proxy$191.7M✓BuffettPositive and growingEarnings Variance (10-yr CoV)N/A (negative mean EPS)✗BuffettCoV < 0.3Retained Earnings Effectiveness✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value createdBasic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.97✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)3-5 Year EPS CAGR20.4%✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to passROE19.8%✓Lynch> 15%EBIT / Enterprise Value7.7%✗Greenblatt> 10%Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=7.7%, ROC=38.9%✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%Net Income / Total Assets10.42%✓PiotroskiROA > 0ROA Change YoY7.08% -> 10.42% (delta: +3.34%)✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=11.93%, ROA=10.42%✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROAGross Margin Change YoY34.9% -> 36.1%✓PiotroskiImproved YoYPre-Tax Income / Revenue19.1%✓Dreman>= 8%Net Income / Shareholders' Equity19.8%✓Dreman> 12%Margin of SafetyP/E=19.8x, P/B=3.9x✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15Return on Equity15.3% (3-yr avg)✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)Discount to Intrinsic Value-92.8% (IV=$12.55 vs Price=$24.20)✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic valuePositive Net Income Frequency17/21 years positive✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 yearsOperating Income / Revenue19.4%✓Ackman>= 15%Net Income / Shareholders Equity19.8%✓Ackman>= 15%5-Year EPS CAGR29.0% CAGR over 4 years✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)Operating Margin Trend10.0% (2023) -> 18.2% (2025)✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 yearsRevenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 29.7% -> 36.1%, operating margin 10.0% -> 18.2%✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holdingGross profit / total assets+28.67%; #1511/3702 (top 40.8%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionNet income / positive book equity+19.83%; #796/5226 (top 15.2%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionNegative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0209; #1487/5884 (top 25.3%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR29.0% over 4 years✗Neff7%-20% annualizedPositive Diluted-EPS Years9/9 years positive✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule) - Growth38% pass✓ 8✗ 5▾
5 of 8 flag MWA's growth — Graham, Lynch, Ackman +2 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)✗Graham>= 33% growthBasic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.97✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)3-5 Year EPS CAGR20.4%✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to passInventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 20.0% vs Rev: 5.9%✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growthEPS Growth Direction$0.06 (2005) -> $1.22 (2025)✓DremanPositive over recent yearsEPS CAGR16.3% CAGR over 20 years✓Dreman> 5% annualizedPositive Net Income Frequency17/21 years positive✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years3yr Median Revenue Growth3.1%✗Ackman>= 5%Positive EPS Growth Frequency4/4 years with positive EPS growth✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years5-Year EPS CAGR29.0% CAGR over 4 years✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 29.7% -> 36.1%, operating margin 10.0% -> 18.2%✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding5-year Revenue CAGR8.2%✓SleepCAGR > 7%3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR29.0% over 4 years✗Neff7%-20% annualized - Efficiency50% pass✓ 7✗ 4▾
4 of 8 pass — Piotroski, Munger, Akre +1 more object
Current Ratio4.64✓Graham>= 2.0ROIC (3-5 yr avg)13.2%✓Buffett> 10%ROIC - WACC+3.2%✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)38.9%✓Greenblatt> 25%Current Ratio Change YoY3.33 -> 3.54✓PiotroskiIncreased YoYRevenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.80x -> 0.78x✗PiotroskiImproved YoYCurrent Assets / Current Liabilities4.64✓Dreman> 1.5Return on Invested Capital14.4%✗Munger> 15%ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=8.7%; FY2024: ROIC=11.4%; FY2025: ROIC=14.4%✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in eachReinvestment Rate x ROIC11.6% (RR=81% x ROIC=14.4%)✓AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%ROIC (5-year)1/5 years above 12% (latest 14.4%)✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Business & financials
Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.
Company Profile
Financial Snapshot
Similar Companies
No peer companies found in this industry.
Shareholder Return
Fiscal 2025
Issued 0.1% of shares last year, 0.3% issued over two.
- Buybacks
- $15.0M
- Dividends
- $41.9M
What drove EPS
A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.
Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.
Company Financials
Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years
TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.
The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.
| Metric | TTM · 2026-06-30 2025-07-01 – 2026-06-30 Sources · derived quarter valuesDerived from cumulative filings: revenue, net income, operating income, gross profit, ebit, pre tax income, operating cash flow, depreciation amortization, capex, dividends paid, buybacks. | Q3 FY 2026 2026-04-01 – 2026-06-30 Sources · derived quarter valuesDerived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, capex, dividends paid, buybacks. | Q2 FY 2026 2026-01-01 – 2026-03-31 Sources · derived quarter valuesDerived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, dividends paid, buybacks. | Q1 FY 2026 2025-10-01 – 2025-12-31 Sources | FY 2025Sources
| FY 2024Sources
| FY 2023Sources
| FY 2022Sources
| FY 2021Sources
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.8Bcurrent | -- | -- | -- | $4.2Best. | $3.5Best. | $2.1Best. | $1.9Best. | $1.9Best. |
| Revenue | $1.5B↑6% | $395.9M↑4% | $384.4M↑6% | $318.2M↑5% | $1.4B↑9% | $1.3B↑3% | $1.3B↑2% | $1.2B↑12% | $1.1B |
| Operating Income | $287.3M↑31% | $80.6M↑9% | $80.4M↑15% | $56.7M↑20% | $260.6M↑43% | $181.7M↑43% | $127.4M↑14% | $111.6M↓15% | $131.7M |
| Net Income | $222.2M↑49% | $67.3M↑28% | $59.1M↑15% | $43.2M↑22% | $191.7M↑65% | $115.9M↑36% | $85.5M↑12% | $76.6M↑9% | $70.4M |
| EPS (Diluted) | -- | $0.43↑30% | $0.38↑15% | $0.27↑23% | $1.22↑65% | $0.74↑35% | $0.55↑15% | $0.48↑9% | $0.44 |
| Gross Margin | 37.9%↑8% | 39.4%↑3% | 37.6%↑7% | 37.6%↑11% | 36.1%↑4% | 34.9%↑17% | 29.7%↑2% | 29.2%↓9% | 32.3% |
| Operating Margin | 19.4%↑24% | 20.4%↑5% | 20.9%↑9% | 17.8%↑14% | 18.2%↑32% | 13.8%↑38% | 10.0%↑12% | 8.9%↓25% | 11.9% |
| ROE | 19.8%↑24% | — | — | — | 19.5%↑36% | 14.3%↑19% | 12.0%↑5% | 11.4%↑13% | 10.1% |
| Total Debt | $452.9M | $452.9M | $452.4M | $452.3M↑1% | $451.6M | $449.5M | $447.4M | $446.9M | $446.9M |
| Shareholders' Equity | $1.1B↑21% | $1.1B↑21% | $1.1B↑23% | $1.0B↑22% | $981.7M↑21% | $810.1M↑14% | $711.5M↑6% | $669.3M↓4% | $694.9M |
| Current Ratio | 4.64↑20% | 4.64↑20% | 4.57↑21% | 4.02↑5% | 3.54↑7% | 3.33↑3% | 3.23↑14% | 2.82↓5% | 2.97 |
| Debt / Equity | 0.40↓17% | 0.40↓17% | 0.42↓18% | 0.44↓18% | 0.46↓17% | 0.55↓12% | 0.63↓6% | 0.67↑4% | 0.64 |
| Operating Cash Flow | $237.7M↑6% | $105.8M↑57% | -$12.8M↓190% | $61.2M↑13% | $219.3M↓8% | $238.8M↑119% | $109.0M↑108% | $52.3M↓67% | $156.7M |
| Free Cash Flow | $179.6M↑4% | $94.1M↑69% | -$27.5M↓639% | $44.0M↑4% | $172.0M↓10% | $191.4M↑212% | $61.4M↑2658% | -$2.4M↓103% | $94.0M |