NextDecade Corp

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Debt & Leverage0% pass✗ 15▾

  All 12 investors flag NEXT's debt & leverage

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $12.0B vs NCA $-1.2B

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 107.77, IC: -0.8x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity107.77

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-11.9B

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change61.22% -> 68.49%

  ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.36

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity107.77

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels107.77

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-0.8x, D/EBITDA=N/A

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity107.77

  ✗Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-107.7657; #4207/4210 (top 99.9%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation0% pass✓ 2✗ 26▾

  No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio17.9x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value-1.7%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-1.7%, ROC=-1.8%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share17.9x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-308.9%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-287.1%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=17.9x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low123% of trailing low ($5.27)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization+22.30%; #249/6340 (top 3.9%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.0640; #4925/6449 (top 76.4%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share17.87x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.0000; #5080/5247 (top 96.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-307.53%; #4282/4519 (top 94.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-13.79%; #3644/6202 (top 58.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Cash Flow0% pass✓ 1✗ 11▾

  No clean pass — all 10 investors flag at least one cash flow criterion

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-429.6M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$-5.4B

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$-169.4M

  ✗PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-1.36%, ROA=-3.46%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-287.1%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive0/11 years FCF positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-315.3%

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency0/11 years positive

  ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-5.4B

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-307.53%; #4282/4519 (top 94.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Growth0% pass✓ 1✗ 12▾

  No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency1/11 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency1/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Efficiency0% pass✗ 11▾

  All 8 investors flag NEXT's efficiency

  Current Ratio0.36

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)-5.5%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-15.5%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-1.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY0.69 -> 0.54

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.00x -> 0.00x

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.36

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital-1.5%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-4.6%; FY2024: ROIC=-3.1%; FY2025: ROIC=-2.0%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)0/4 years above 12% (latest -2.0%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Verdicts0% pass✗ 15▾

  Split decision: 14 FAIL · 2 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (0/9)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)✗GreenblattRank #1899✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 1)✗DremanFAIL (2/11)✗MungerFAIL (0/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (0/5)✗AckmanFAIL (1/9)✗TempletonFAIL (1/8)✗SleepFAIL (0/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (0/6)✗SchlossFAIL (0/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Profitability6% pass✓ 7✗ 28▾

  15 of 16 flag NEXT's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +12 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)0/12 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)1/12 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-135.1%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-429.6M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE348.3%

  ✓Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value-1.7%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-1.7%, ROC=-1.8%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets-3.46%

  ✗PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY4.33% -> -3.46% (delta: -7.79%)

  ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-1.36%, ROA=-3.46%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity348.3%

  ✓Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/B=17.9x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity-151.4% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency1/11 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity348.3%

  ✓Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization+22.30%; #249/6340 (top 3.9%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+348.33%; #23/5226 (top 0.4%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0773; #3157/5884 (top 53.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years0/10 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)