NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC

NSSC

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally.

About the company

Country: United StatesPrice: $30.22Market Cap: $1.1B

Investment snapshot

18%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

3 / 10

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$14.33

-52.6% vs price

Models with upside

0 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

6 of 10 pass — Lynch, Dreman, Pabrai +1 more object

Key risk

NSSC overvalued: all 9 models price fair value below $30.22 (median $14.33)

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	FAIL · Rank #663 (Top 21.4%)	PASS	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)			N/A		N/A					N/A			N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	-168.6%	-110.9%	N/A	-179.6%	N/A	-62.5%	-33.7%	-137.6%	-173.0%	N/A	-77.3%	-102.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2025-08-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 vs 2025-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2025-08-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2025-08-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2025-08-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2025-08-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-08-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-08-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-08-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-02 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Cash Flow60% pass✓ 8✗ 4▾
6 of 10 pass — Lynch, Dreman, Pabrai +1 more object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$43.3M
✓BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$50.1M
✗LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$53.5M
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=27.01%, ROA=21.91%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)20.1x
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=25.4x, FCF Yield=4.8%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive16/16 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap4.6%
✓Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share21.0x
✓Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency16/16 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$50.1M
✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+4.64%; #1651/4519 (top 36.5%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

Valuation models0% pass✗ 9▾
NSSC overvalued: all 9 models price fair value below $30.22 (median $14.33)
Graham fair value$11.25
✗Graham-168.6% margin vs $30.22
Buffett fair value$14.33
✗Buffett-110.9% margin vs $30.22
Greenblatt fair value$10.81
✗Greenblatt-179.6% margin vs $30.22
Dreman fair value$18.60
✗Dreman-62.5% margin vs $30.22
Munger fair value$22.60
✗Munger-33.7% margin vs $30.22
Pabrai fair value$12.72
✗Pabrai-137.6% margin vs $30.22
Akre fair value$11.07
✗Akre-173.0% margin vs $30.22
Ackman fair value$17.04
✗Ackman-77.3% margin vs $30.22
Templeton fair value$14.94
✗Templeton-102.3% margin vs $30.22
Debt & Leverage8% pass✓ 3✗ 12▾
11 of 12 flag NSSC's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more
LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest Coverage
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities7.23
✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity
✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDA
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity
✗Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Valuation8% pass✓ 1✗ 27▾
12 of 13 flag NSSC's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +9 more
Price / 3-yr avg EPS24.4x
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio6.4x
✗Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B155.80
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value4.6%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=4.6%, ROC=71.7%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS25.4x
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)20.1x
✗Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share6.4x
✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=25.4x, OE Yield=4.0%
✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=25.4x, FCF Yield=4.8%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=25.4x, P/B=6.4x
✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value-62.5% (IV=$18.60 vs Price=$30.22)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share21.0x
✓Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low132% of trailing low ($22.85)
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Net income / market capitalization+4.06%; #1998/6340 (top 31.5%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.1834; #4266/6449 (top 66.1%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS25.4x
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share6.39x
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change
✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.1879; #3835/5247 (top 73.1%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+4.64%; #1651/4519 (top 36.5%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-29.31%; #4390/6202 (top 70.8%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Growth13% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾
7 of 8 flag NSSC's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 9.1% vs Rev: 8.7%
✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency16/16 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth0.0%
✗Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 53.9% -> 55.6%, operating margin 28.5% -> 25.5%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR9.8%
✓SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Verdicts21% pass✓ 3✗ 11▾
Split decision: 10 FAIL · 3 PASS · 3 NEUTRAL
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (2/9)✓BuffettPASS (5/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)✗GreenblattRank #663✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 5)✗DremanFAIL (4/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (2/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✓AckmanPASS (5/9)✗TempletonFAIL (2/8)•SleepNEUTRAL (4/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (3/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
Profitability25% pass✓ 15✗ 20▾
12 of 16 flag NSSC's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +9 more
Positive EPS (10 years)16/17 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)16/17 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)23.2%
✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)25.5% (latest)
✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$43.3M
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE22.1%
✓Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value4.6%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=4.6%, ROC=71.7%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets21.91%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY21.91% -> 21.91% (delta: +0.00%)
✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=27.01%, ROA=21.91%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY55.6% -> 55.6%
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue24.9%
✓Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity22.1%
✓Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/E=25.4x, P/B=6.4x
✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity26.4% (3-yr avg)
✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value-62.5% (IV=$18.60 vs Price=$30.22)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency16/16 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue22.7%
✓Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity22.1%
✓Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend28.5% (2023) -> 25.5% (2025)
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 53.9% -> 55.6%, operating margin 28.5% -> 25.5%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Net income / market capitalization+4.06%; #1998/6340 (top 31.5%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Gross profit / total assets+52.40%; #615/3702 (top 16.6%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity+22.14%; #708/5226 (top 13.5%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0405; #2300/5884 (top 39.1%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years10/10 years positive
✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Efficiency50% pass✓ 5✗ 6▾
4 of 8 pass — Piotroski, Munger, Akre +1 more object
Current Ratio7.23
✓Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)14.7%
✓Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC+4.7%
✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)71.7%
✓Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY6.75 -> 6.75
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.92x -> 0.92x
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities7.23
✓Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Electronic Equipment

SIC Sector: Electronic & Electrical Equipment

Size: Small Cap($1.1B)

Revenue: $181.6M+0.0% YoY

Net Income: $43.4M+0.0% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin25.5%

Return on Equity25.7%

Debt / Equity--

Current Ratio6.75

EPS (Diluted)$1.19+0.0% 1y

Shares Retired3.3% / 3.0% 2y

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Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 3.3% of shares last year, 3.0% over two.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: $13.6M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22

37.7% = 38.4% + −0.5%

FY23

83.6% = 83.6% + −0.0%

FY24

−11.2% = −12.9% + 1.9%

FY25

0.0% = 0.0% + 0.0%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.

Metric	TTM · 2026-09-30 2025-10-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-Q · 2026-02-02 10-Q · 2026-05-05 10-K · 2026-08-24 10-Q · 2026-11-02 Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, capex, dividends paid, revenue, net income, operating income, gross profit, ebit, pre tax income, depreciation amortization.	Q1 FY 2027 2026-07-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources 10-Q · 2026-11-02	FY 2025 Sources 10-K · 2025-08-25	FY 2024 Sources 10-K · 2025-08-25	FY 2023 Sources 10-K · 2024-08-29	FY 2022 Sources 10-K · 2023-09-08	FY 2021 Sources 10-K · 2022-08-29
Market Cap	$1.1Bcurrent	--	$1.3Best.	$1.3Best.	$1.2Best.	$1.0Best.	$734.8Mest.
Revenue	$203.1M↑9%	$50.0M↑2%	$181.6M	$181.6M↓4%	$188.8M↑11%	$170.0M↑18%	$143.6M
Operating Income	$46.1M↓4%	$14.1M↑3%	$46.3M	$46.3M↓14%	$53.8M↑77%	$30.3M↑66%	$18.2M
Net Income	$43.9M↓1%	$13.0M↑7%	$43.4M	$43.4M↓13%	$49.8M↑84%	$27.1M↑38%	$19.6M
EPS (Diluted)	--	$0.36↑6%	$1.19	$1.19↓11%	$1.34↑84%	$0.73↑38%	$0.53
Gross Margin	59.7%↑7%	58.7%↑4%	55.6%	55.6%↑3%	53.9%↑25%	43.1%↑5%	41.2%
Operating Margin	22.7%↓12%	28.2%↑2%	25.5%	25.5%↓11%	28.5%↑60%	17.8%↑41%	12.7%
ROE	22.1%↓12%	—	25.7%	25.7%↓8%	27.8%↑44%	19.4%↑12%	17.2%
Total Debt	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Shareholders' Equity	$198.2M↑13%	$198.2M↑13%	$168.6M	$168.6M↓6%	$178.9M↑28%	$140.2M↑23%	$113.8M
Current Ratio	7.23↑2%	7.23↑2%	6.75	6.75↓11%	7.59↑14%	6.67↑48%	4.52
Debt / Equity	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Cash Flow	$52.3M↓2%	$2.8M↓76%	$53.5M	$53.5M↑18%	$45.4M↑84%	$24.7M↑196%	$8.3M
Free Cash Flow	$50.1M↓3%	$2.3M↓80%	$51.4M	$51.4M↑17%	$43.8M↑101%	$21.7M↑217%	$6.8M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Electronic Equipment

NSSC vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$181.6MBottom 25%

Net Income$43.4MBottom 25%

ROE25.7%Median

D/E—

Op. Margin25.5%Median

Curr. Ratio6.75Top 25%

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NVIDIA CORPNVDA	$3.93T	$162.85	$215.9B	$120.1B	76.3%	0.05	60.4%	3.91	3/9	6/9	3/7	1/3	F-Score 4	5/11
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TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCTXN	$277.4B	$303.60	$17.7B	$5.0B	30.7%	0.86	34.1%	4.35	6/9	5/9	3/7	1/3	F-Score 7	7/11
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NOKIA CORPNOK	$45.7B	$8.07	$23.4B	$764.7M	3.1%	0.16	4.4%	1.58	2/9	1/9	3/7	1/3	F-Score 5	3/11
ERICSSON LM TELEPHONE COERIC	$34.2B	$10.56	$25.7B	$3.1B	26.0%	0.30	16.3%	1.29	2/9	5/9	5/7	3/3	F-Score 7	7/11