Pampa Energy Inc.

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Valuation models0% pass✗ 6▾

  PAM overvalued: all 6 models price fair value below $65.21 (median $4.12)

  Graham fair value$5.00

  ✗Graham-1204.2% margin vs $65.21

  Buffett fair value$3.23

  ✗Buffett-1918.9% margin vs $65.21

  Greenblatt fair value$2.90

  ✗Greenblatt-2148.6% margin vs $65.21

  Dreman fair value$5.05

  ✗Dreman-1191.3% margin vs $65.21

  Pabrai fair value$0.91

  ✗Pabrai-7065.9% margin vs $65.21

  Akre fair value$11.80

  ✗Akre-452.6% margin vs $65.21
• Valuation8% pass✓ 5✗ 23▾

  12 of 13 flag PAM's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +9 more

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS193.7x

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio27.0x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B5,226.2

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value7.9%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=7.9%, ROC=10.0%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS141.8x

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)203.8x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share27.0x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=141.8x, OE Yield=0.6%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=141.8x, FCF Yield=-0.3%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=141.8x, P/B=27.0x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic Value-1191.3% (IV=$5.05 vs Price=$65.21)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low109% of trailing low ($60.06)

  ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization+17.71%; #306/6340 (top 4.8%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.9401; #1600/6449 (top 24.8%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS141.8x

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share26.98x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change+111.4%

  ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.5367; #2540/5247 (top 48.4%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-0.34%; #2589/4519 (top 57.3%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-23.51%; #4139/6202 (top 66.7%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Growth13% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾

  7 of 8 flag PAM's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 8.8% vs Rev: 8.3%

  ✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency9/10 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth8.3%

  ✓Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 37.7% -> 31.8%, operating margin 34.5% -> 23.5%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR7.0%

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Efficiency13% pass✓ 1✗ 10▾

  7 of 8 flag PAM's efficiency — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +4 more

  Current Ratio1.83

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)10.0%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-0.0%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)10.0%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY2.56 -> 1.83

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.37x -> 0.30x

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.83

  ✓Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital6.5%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2022: ROIC=12.8%; FY2023: ROIC=8.7%; FY2024: ROIC=6.5%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC6.5% (RR=100% x ROIC=6.5%)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)2/5 years above 12% (latest 6.5%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Verdicts14% pass✓ 2✗ 12▾

  Split decision: 11 FAIL · 3 NEUTRAL · 2 PASS

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)✗GreenblattRank #1119✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 5)✓DremanPASS (5/11)✗MungerFAIL (0/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)•AckmanNEUTRAL (6/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1101/2370 (Top 46.5%))✗NeffFAIL (1/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Cash Flow20% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

  8 of 10 flag PAM's cash flow — Lynch, Piotroski, Dreman +5 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$619.0M

  ✓BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$-12.0M

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$435.0M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.86%, ROA=9.76%

  ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)203.8x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=141.8x, FCF Yield=-0.3%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive5/10 years FCF positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-0.0%

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency10/10 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-12.0M

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-0.34%; #2589/4519 (top 57.3%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Profitability25% pass✓ 13✗ 22▾

  12 of 16 flag PAM's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +9 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)8/11 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)9/11 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)8.2%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)23.5% (latest)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$619.0M

  ✓BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE18.8%

  ✓Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value7.9%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=7.9%, ROC=10.0%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets9.76%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY6.40% -> 9.76% (delta: +3.36%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.86%, ROA=9.76%

  ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY36.1% -> 31.8%

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue26.5%

  ✓Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity18.8%

  ✓Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/E=141.8x, P/B=27.0x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity17.1% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic Value-1191.3% (IV=$5.05 vs Price=$65.21)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency9/10 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue23.5%

  ✓Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity18.8%

  ✓Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend34.5% (2022) -> 23.5% (2024)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 37.7% -> 31.8%, operating margin 34.5% -> 23.5%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization+17.71%; #306/6340 (top 4.8%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+9.41%; #2843/3702 (top 76.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+18.84%; #854/5226 (top 16.3%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0643; #2897/5884 (top 49.2%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years8/10 years positive

  ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Debt & Leverage42% pass✓ 7✗ 8▾

  7 of 12 flag PAM's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +4 more

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $1.4B vs NCA $1.1B

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.63, IC: 2.4x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity0.63

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-1.4B

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change25.92% -> 21.64%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.83

  ✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.63

  ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels0.63

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=2.4x, D/EBITDA=2.7x

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.63

  ✓Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.6327; #2722/4210 (top 64.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section