Pony AI Inc.

PONY
Country: ChinaPrice: $4.46Market Cap: $1.9B

Investment snapshot

18%positive consensus
Scored 1d ago

Positive

3

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

1 / 12

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

—

No comparable estimates

Models with upside

0 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

8 of 12 pass — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +1 more object

Key risk

No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

MetricGraham

Defensive Value

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Lynch

GARP

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Piotroski

F-Score

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Ackman

Activist Value

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Asness

Systematic Factors

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

O'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

VerdictFAILFAILFAILFAIL · Rank #2334 (Top 75.4%)PASSFAILPASSFAILFAILFAILFAILPASSFAILFAILFAILFAILNEUTRAL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Financial Basis

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-04-22

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

  • Debt & Leverage67% pass✓ 11✗ 4▾

    8 of 12 pass — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +1 more object

    LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
    ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.01, IC: N/A
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Total Debt / Equity0.01
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities13.67
    ✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.01
    ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
    Debt Levels0.01
    ✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDA
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.01
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.0085; #587/4210 (top 13.9%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

  • Valuation0% pass✓ 6✗ 22▾

    No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

    Price / Book Value per Share1.2x
    ✓Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio1.2x
    ✓Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-15.7%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-15.7%, ROC=-28.2%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Price / EPS
    ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
    Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-8.8%
    ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-10.8%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=1.2x
    ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price vs. Trailing Low100% of trailing low ($4.46)
    ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    Net income / market capitalization-6.90%; #4009/6340 (top 63.2%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.8513; #1800/6449 (top 27.9%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Price / Diluted EPS
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share1.17x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change
    ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Revenue / market capitalization+0.0464; #4597/5247 (top 87.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-10.76%; #3264/4519 (top 72.2%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-55.53%; #5296/6202 (top 85.4%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Cash Flow0% pass✗ 12▾

    All 10 investors flag PONY's cash flow

    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-160.7M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    FCF Positive and Growing$-208.8M
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Operating Cash Flow$-165.0M
    ✗PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-9.10%, ROA=-7.39%
    ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-10.8%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    FCF Positive0/4 years FCF positive
    ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-10.8%
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency0/4 years positive
    ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-208.8M
    ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-10.76%; #3264/4519 (top 72.2%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Growth0% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾

    No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)
    ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    EPS Growth Direction
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    Positive Net Income Frequency0/4 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth5.1%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency
    ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 23.5% -> 15.7%, operating margin -199.2% -> -289.8%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR
    ✗SleepCAGR > 7%
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
  • Profitability6% pass✓ 3✗ 32▾

    15 of 16 flag PONY's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +12 more

    Positive EPS (10 years)0/5 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)0/5 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-18.5%
    ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-289.8% (latest)
    ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-160.7M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE-8.1%
    ✗Lynch> 15%
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-15.7%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-15.7%, ROC=-28.2%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Net Income / Total Assets-7.39%
    ✗PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY-26.09% -> -7.39% (delta: +18.70%)
    ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-9.10%, ROA=-7.39%
    ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY15.2% -> 15.7%
    ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-85.3%
    ✗Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-8.1%
    ✗Dreman> 12%
    Margin of SafetyP/B=1.2x
    ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity-18.5% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Discount to Intrinsic Value
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency0/4 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue-289.8%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity-8.1%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend-199.2% (2023) -> -289.8% (2025)
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 23.5% -> 15.7%, operating margin -199.2% -> -289.8%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    Net income / market capitalization-6.90%; #4009/6340 (top 63.2%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Gross profit / total assets+0.78%; #3368/3702 (top 91.0%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / positive book equity-8.11%; #3338/5226 (top 63.9%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0670; #2953/5884 (top 50.2%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years
    ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
  • Verdicts19% pass✓ 3✗ 13▾

    Split decision: 12 FAIL · 3 PASS · 1 NEUTRAL

    Overall verdict
    ✗GrahamFAIL (2/9)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)✗GreenblattRank #2334✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗DremanFAIL (4/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✗AckmanFAIL (2/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✗SleepFAIL (0/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1839/2370 (Top 77.6%))✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (2/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
  • Efficiency25% pass✓ 3✗ 8▾

    6 of 8 flag PONY's efficiency — Buffett, Greenblatt, Piotroski +3 more

    Current Ratio13.67
    ✓Graham>= 2.0
    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)-34.6%
    ✗Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC-44.6%
    ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-28.2%
    ✗Greenblatt> 25%
    Current Ratio Change YoY11.77 -> 13.67
    ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.07x -> 0.05x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities13.67
    ✓Dreman> 1.5
    Return on Invested Capital-12.4%
    ✗Munger> 15%
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=-23.7%; FY2025: ROIC=-12.4%
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)0/2 years above 12% (latest -12.4%)
    ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Business Services
Size: Small Cap($1.9B)
Revenue: $90.0M+20.0% YoY
Net Income: $134.0M+51.1% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin-289.8%
Return on Equity-8.1%
Debt / Equity0.01
Current Ratio13.67
EPS (Diluted)$-0.35

Similar Companies

No peer companies found in this industry.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

MetricFY 2025
Sources
  • 20-F · 2026-04-22
FY 2024
Sources
  • 20-F · 2025-04-25
FY 2023
Sources
  • 20-F · 2025-04-25
FY 2022
Sources
  • 20-F · 2025-04-25
FY 2021
Sources
  • 20-F · 2025-04-25
Market Cap$1.9Bcurrent$1.5Best.$1.2Best.----
Revenue$90.0M↑20%$75.0M↑4%$71.9M↑5%$68.4M--
Operating Income-$260.9M↑9%-$285.5M↓99%-$143.2M↑16%-$170.7M--
Net Income-$134.0M↑51%-$274.1M↓120%-$124.8M↑16%-$148.0M--
EPS (Diluted)$-0.35↑85%$-2.40↓71%$-1.40↑19%$-1.73--
Gross Margin15.7%↑4%15.2%↓35%23.5%↓50%46.9%—
Operating Margin-289.8%↑24%-380.6%↓91%-199.2%↑20%-249.6%—
ROE-8.1%↑72%-28.8%↓256%18.4%↓31%26.8%—
Total Debt$14.0M↑729%$1.7M↓31%$2.4M↓54%$5.3M--
Shareholders' Equity$1.7B↑74%$951.1M↑240%-$677.3M↓23%-$551.5M↓38%-$398.2M
Current Ratio13.67↑16%11.77↓15%13.83↑3%13.38—
Debt / Equity0.01↑377%0.00↑149%-0.00↑63%-0.01—
Operating Cash Flow-$165.0M↓49%-$110.8M↑4%-$115.4M↑25%-$154.8M--
Free Cash Flow-$208.8M↓71%-$122.2M↓1%-$120.5M↑28%-$166.8M--

Score history

Historical Score Timeline