Origin Agritech LTD

SEED
About the company

Origin Agritech Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agricultural biotechnology in the People's Republic of China. The company engages in the development, production, and distribution of hybrid crop seeds, as well as the development of hybrid seed technology. Further, it engages in crop seed breeding and genetic improvement, and related technical services.

Country: ChinaPrice: $0.66Market Cap: $9.3M

Investment snapshot

0%positive consensus
Scored 1d ago

Positive

0

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

2 / 14

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$3.77

+470.5% vs price

Models with upside

2 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

SEED undervalued: all 2 models price fair value above $0.66 (median $3.77)

Key risk

No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

MetricGraham

Defensive Value

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Lynch

GARP

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Piotroski

F-Score

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Ackman

Activist Value

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Asness

Systematic Factors

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

O'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

VerdictFAILFAILFAILNot rankedFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILNEUTRALFAILFAILNEUTRAL
Score
AnalysisChecking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…
Intrinsic Value (annual)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/AN/AN/A+85.6%N/A+77.6%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Financial Basis

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-01-30

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

  • Valuation models100% pass✓ 2▾

    SEED undervalued: all 2 models price fair value above $0.66 (median $3.77)

    Greenblatt fair value$4.58
    ✓Greenblatt+85.6% margin vs $0.66
    Dreman fair value$2.95
    ✓Dreman+77.6% margin vs $0.66

Where It Falls Short

  • Profitability0% pass✓ 6✗ 29▾

    No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

    Positive EPS (10 years)4/18 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)617.0%
    ✓Graham>= 33% growth
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)4/18 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-22.1%
    ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)29.7% (latest)
    ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-8.8M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)N/A (negative mean EPS)
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROEN/A (negative equity)
    ✗Lynch> 15%
    EBIT / Enterprise Value40.5%
    ✓Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=40.5%, ROC=N/A (invested capital <= 0)
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Net Income / Total Assets-52.99%
    ✗PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY15.74% -> -52.99% (delta: -68.73%)
    ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-22.71%, ROA=-52.99%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY14.2% -> 7.0%
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-63.8%
    ✗Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity
    ✗Dreman> 12%
    Margin of Safety
    ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity-36.5% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Discount to Intrinsic Value77.6% (IV=$2.95 vs Price=$0.66)
    ✓Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency4/17 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue29.7%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend65.4% (2023) -> 29.7% (2025)
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 18.5% -> 7.0%, operating margin 65.4% -> 29.7%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    Net income / market capitalization-82.92%; #5297/6340 (top 83.5%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Gross profit / total assets+6.35%; #3032/3702 (top 81.9%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / positive book equity
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.3925; #4788/5884 (top 81.4%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-45.0% over 3 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years2/10 years positive
    ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
  • Valuation0% pass✓ 4✗ 24▾

    No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

    Price / 3-yr avg EPS3.4x
    ✓Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    EBIT / Enterprise Value40.5%
    ✓Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=40.5%, ROC=N/A (invested capital <= 0)
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Price / EPS
    ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
    Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Price / Book Value per ShareN/A (negative BVPS)
    ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
    Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-112.2%
    ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-53.0%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical Average
    ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value77.6% (IV=$2.95 vs Price=$0.66)
    ✓Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price vs. Trailing Low100% of trailing low ($0.66)
    ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    Net income / market capitalization-82.92%; #5297/6340 (top 83.5%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Positive book equity / market capitalization-0.3629; #5907/6449 (top 91.6%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Price / Diluted EPS
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / Tangible Book Value per ShareN/A (non-positive TBVPS)
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change
    ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Revenue / market capitalization+1.4195; #1400/5247 (top 26.7%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-52.98%; #3870/4519 (top 85.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-42.61%; #4908/6202 (top 79.1%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Cash Flow0% pass✓ 1✗ 11▾

    No clean pass — all 10 investors flag at least one cash flow criterion

    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-8.8M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    FCF Positive and Growing$-4.9M
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Operating Cash Flow$-3.3M
    ✗PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-22.71%, ROA=-52.99%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-53.0%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    FCF Positive5/17 years FCF positive
    ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-62.4%
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency7/17 years positive
    ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-4.9M
    ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-52.98%; #3870/4519 (top 85.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Verdicts0% pass✗ 14▾

    Split decision: 14 FAIL · 2 NEUTRAL

    Overall verdict
    ✗GrahamFAIL (2/9)✗BuffettFAIL (3/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 2)✗DremanFAIL (0/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (1/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)✗SchlossFAIL (1/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
  • Debt & Leverage8% pass✓ 2✗ 13▾

    11 of 12 flag SEED's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more

    LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $1.5M vs NCA $-12.0M
    ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: N/A (negative equity), IC: 10.4x
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Total Debt / EquityN/A (negative equity)
    ✗Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt$0.8M
    ✓LynchPositive preferred
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change4.42% -> 10.42%
    ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.44
    ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity
    ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x
    Debt LevelsN/A (non-positive equity)
    ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=10.4x, D/EBITDA=0.6x
    ✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity
    ✗Ackman<= 1.0
    Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
  • Growth13% pass✓ 3✗ 10▾

    7 of 8 flag SEED's growth — Lynch, Dreman, Marks +4 more

    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)617.0%
    ✓Graham>= 33% growth
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 17.6% vs Rev: -15.6%
    ✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    EPS Growth Direction$-0.26 (2009) -> $-1.02 (2025)
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR2.4% CAGR over 14 years
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    Positive Net Income Frequency4/17 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth19.7%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 18.5% -> 7.0%, operating margin 65.4% -> 29.7%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR11.3%
    ✓SleepCAGR > 7%
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-45.0% over 3 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
  • Efficiency13% pass✓ 3✗ 8▾

    7 of 8 flag SEED's efficiency — Graham, Greenblatt, Piotroski +4 more

    Current Ratio0.44
    ✗Graham>= 2.0
    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)1040.0%
    ✓Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC+1030.0%
    ✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)N/A (invested capital <= 0)
    ✗Greenblatt> 25%
    Current Ratio Change YoY0.54 -> 0.44
    ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.86x -> 0.91x
    ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.44
    ✗Dreman> 1.5
    Return on Invested CapitalN/A (non-positive invested capital)
    ✗Munger> 15%
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)1/2 years above 12% (latest 103.0%)
    ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Agriculture
SIC Sector: Agricultural Crops
Size: Micro Cap($9.3M)
Revenue: $13.1M-15.6% YoY
Net Income: $7.7M-370.0% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin29.7%
Return on Equity228.5%
Debt / Equity-0.79
Current Ratio0.44
EPS (Diluted)$-1.02−62.6% 1y

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CTVACorteva, Inc.
$6.3B
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$3.1B
DOLEDole plc
$1.3B
AGROAdecoagro S.A.
$1.3B

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Share retirement not available for this company.

Buybacks
—
Dividends
$156.4K

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY24
−62.6% = −63.1% + 1.4%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

MetricFY 2025
Sources
  • 20-F · 2026-01-30
FY 2024
Sources
  • 20-F · 2025-02-10
FY 2023
Sources
  • 20-F · 2024-02-15
FY 2022
Sources
  • 20-F · 2023-02-14
FY 2021
Sources
  • 20-F · 2022-02-04
Market Cap$9.3Mcurrent$13.8Mest.$10.1Mest.$48.3Mest.$26.8Mest.
Revenue$13.1M↓16%$15.6M↑20%$13.0M↑69%$7.7M↑7%$7.2M
Operating Income$3.9M↓53%$8.3M↓2%$8.5M↑147%$3.4M↑121%-$16.1M
Net Income-$7.7M↓370%$2.8M↓63%$7.7M↑940%-$918.4K↑94%-$14.1M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.02↓333%$0.44↓63%$1.17↑835%$-0.16↑94%$-2.52
Gross Margin7.0%↓51%14.2%↓23%18.5%↓40%30.8%↑12%27.6%
Operating Margin29.7%↓45%53.5%↓18%65.4%↑47%44.7%↑120%-224.7%
ROE228.5%↑445%-66.2%↑31%-96.4%↓2160%4.7%↓93%65.1%
Total Debt$2.7M↑80%$1.5M↑72%$860.8K↓96%$22.3M↓6%$23.7M
Shareholders' Equity-$3.4M↑22%-$4.3M↑46%-$8.0M↑59%-$19.6M↑10%-$21.7M
Current Ratio0.44↓18%0.54↑20%0.45↑62%0.28↑37%0.20
Debt / Equity-0.79↓130%-0.34↓220%-0.11↑91%-1.13↓4%-1.09
Operating Cash Flow-$3.3M↓60%-$2.1M↓171%-$760.3K↓258%$482.4K↑112%-$3.9M
Free Cash Flow-$4.9M↓79%-$2.7M↓37%-$2.0M↓612%$391.2K↑110%-$4.0M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Agriculture

SEED vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$13.1MBottom 25%
Net Income$7.7MBottom 25%
ROE228.5%Top 25%
D/E-0.79Top 25%
Op. Margin29.7%Top 25%
Curr. Ratio0.44Bottom 25%
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchGreenblattPiotroskiDreman
Corteva, Inc.CTVA$6.3B$9.43$17.4B$1.1B4.5%0.11—1.435/92/94/73/3F-Score 79/11
CAL-MAINE FOODS INCCALM$3.1B$66.45$2.9B$316.7M12.0%—12.0%7.706/93/92/71/3F-Score 66/11
Dole plcDOLE$1.3B$14.32$9.2B$51.3M3.8%0.632.4%1.174/91/90/71/3F-Score 63/11
Adecoagro S.A.AGRO$1.3B$9.11$1.5B$92.3M6.7%0.5712.0%2.545/92/93/70/3F-Score 76/11
DEL MONTE CORPDMC$1.3B$27.22$4.3B$90.7M4.5%0.093.2%2.165/91/92/70/3F-Score 86/11
Mission Produce, Inc.AVO$1.0B$11.83$1.4B$37.7M6.4%0.164.7%1.952/90/91/70/3F-Score 83/11
CALAVO GROWERS INCCVGW$490.7M$27.63$648.4M$19.8M9.6%0.023.0%2.473/92/91/71/3F-Score 72/11
BrasilAgro - Brazilian Agricultural Real Estate CoLND$311.8M$3.13$160.2M$25.2M6.3%—23.5%—5/93/90/71/3F-Score 54/11