SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC.

SERA
About the company

Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health company, discovers, develops, and commercializes blood-based biomarker tests, and predictive analytic products and services in the United States. The company develops the PreTRM test, a non-invasive blood test given to a pregnant woman, carrying a single fetus, during weeks 18 through 20 of gestation.

Country: United StatesPrice: $2.01Market Cap: $79.9M

Investment snapshot

6%positive consensus
Scored 1d ago

Positive

1

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

1 / 14

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

—

No comparable estimates

Models with upside

0 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

8 of 12 pass — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +1 more object

Key risk

No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

MetricGraham

Defensive Value

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Lynch

GARP

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Piotroski

F-Score

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Ackman

Activist Value

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Asness

Systematic Factors

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

O'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

VerdictFAILFAILFAILFAIL · Rank #2880 (Top 93%)FAILFAILPASSFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILNEUTRAL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Financial Basis

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 vs 2025-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-03-18

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-03-18

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-03-18

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-03-18

Score computed: 2026-11-14

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-04

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

  • Debt & Leverage67% pass✓ 11✗ 4▾

    8 of 12 pass — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +1 more object

    LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
    ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.00, IC: -5315.0x
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Total Debt / Equity0
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
    ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.88
    ✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0
    ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
    Debt Levels0
    ✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-5315.0x, D/EBITDA=0.0x (no debt)
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.0000; #1/4210 (top 0.0%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

  • Valuation0% pass✓ 3✗ 25▾

    No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

    Price / Book Value per Share1.3x
    ✗Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio1.3x
    ✓Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-48.0%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-48.0%, ROC=-264.8%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Price / EPS
    ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
    Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-33.1%
    ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-33.0%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=1.3x
    ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price vs. Trailing Low129% of trailing low ($1.56)
    ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    Net income / market capitalization-41.87%; #4967/6340 (top 78.3%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.6560; #2342/6449 (top 36.3%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Price / Diluted EPS
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share1.29x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change
    ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Revenue / market capitalization+0.0012; #5014/5247 (top 95.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-36.27%; #3739/4519 (top 82.7%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+3.61%; #2261/6202 (top 36.5%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Cash Flow0% pass✓ 1✗ 11▾

    No clean pass — all 10 investors flag at least one cash flow criterion

    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-31.7M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    FCF Positive and Growing$-29.0M
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Operating Cash Flow$-25.6M
    ✗PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-25.14%, ROA=-31.32%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-33.0%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    FCF Positive0/6 years FCF positive
    ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-30.3%
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency0/6 years positive
    ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-29.0M
    ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-36.27%; #3739/4519 (top 82.7%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Growth0% pass✓ 3✗ 10▾

    No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)
    ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    EPS Growth Direction
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    Positive Net Income Frequency0/6 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth5.2%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency
    ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 31.4% -> -102.5%, operating margin -13013.4% -> -45066.7%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR26.5%
    ✓SleepCAGR > 7%
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
  • Profitability6% pass✓ 4✗ 31▾

    15 of 16 flag SERA's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +12 more

    Positive EPS (10 years)0/7 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)0/7 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-46.5%
    ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-45066.7% (latest)
    ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-31.7M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE-63.8%
    ✗Lynch> 15%
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-48.0%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-48.0%, ROC=-264.8%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Net Income / Total Assets-31.32%
    ✗PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY-45.33% -> -31.32% (delta: +14.01%)
    ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-25.14%, ROA=-31.32%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY-6.5% -> -102.5%
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-39417.3%
    ✗Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-63.8%
    ✗Dreman> 12%
    Margin of SafetyP/B=1.3x
    ✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity-54.3% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Discount to Intrinsic Value
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency0/6 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue-38755.2%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity-63.8%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend-13013.4% (2023) -> -45066.7% (2025)
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 31.4% -> -102.5%, operating margin -13013.4% -> -45066.7%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    Net income / market capitalization-41.87%; #4967/6340 (top 78.3%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Gross profit / total assets-0.08%; #3520/3702 (top 95.1%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / positive book equity-63.83%; #4351/5226 (top 83.3%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0725; #3071/5884 (top 52.2%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years0/6 years positive
    ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
  • Verdicts6% pass✓ 1✗ 15▾

    Split decision: 14 FAIL · 1 PASS · 1 NEUTRAL

    Overall verdict
    ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)✗GreenblattRank #2880✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 3)✗DremanFAIL (2/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (1/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #2002/2370 (Top 84.5%))✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (2/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
  • Efficiency13% pass✓ 1✗ 10▾

    7 of 8 flag SERA's efficiency — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +4 more

    Current Ratio1.88
    ✗Graham>= 2.0
    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)-47.9%
    ✗Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC-57.9%
    ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-264.8%
    ✗Greenblatt> 25%
    Current Ratio Change YoY1.92 -> 1.69
    ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.00x -> 0.00x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.88
    ✓Dreman> 1.5
    Return on Invested Capital-56.1%
    ✗Munger> 15%
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-44.4%; FY2024: ROIC=-60.3%; FY2025: ROIC=-38.2%
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest -38.2%)
    ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Healthcare
SIC Sector: Health Services
Size: Micro Cap($79.9M)
Revenue: $81000.00+5.2% YoY
Net Income: $31.9M+2.9% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin-45066.7%
Return on Equity-42.3%
Debt / Equity0.00
Current Ratio1.69
EPS (Diluted)$-0.67

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.

MetricTTM · 2026-09-30

2025-10-01 – 2026-09-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: revenue, net income, operating income, ebit, interest expense, operating cash flow, depreciation amortization, capex.

Q3 FY 2026

2026-07-01 – 2026-09-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, depreciation amortization, capex.

Q2 FY 2026

2026-04-01 – 2026-06-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, depreciation amortization, capex.

Q1 FY 2026

2026-01-01 – 2026-03-31

Sources
FY 2025
Sources
  • 10-K · 2026-03-18
FY 2024
Sources
  • 10-K · 2025-03-19
FY 2023
Sources
  • 10-K · 2024-03-20
FY 2022
Sources
  • 10-K · 2023-03-22
FY 2021
Sources
  • 10-K · 2022-03-29
Market Cap$79.9Mcurrent------$131.5Mest.$214.5Mest.$218.4Mest.$47.0Mest.$101.3Mest.
Revenue$96.0K↑1%$42.0K↑163%$30.0K↑76%$14.0K↓63%$81.0K↑5%$77.0K↓75%$306.0K↑14%$268.0K↑227%$82.0K
Operating Income-$37.2M↓1%-$8.9M↑1%-$10.0M↓7%-$9.4M↓1%-$36.5M-$36.6M↑8%-$39.8M↑13%-$45.7M↓29%-$35.4M
Net Income-$33.5M↓3%-$8.1M↓3%-$9.1M↓14%-$8.4M↓3%-$31.9M↑3%-$32.9M↑9%-$36.2M↑18%-$44.2M↓26%-$35.0M
EPS (Diluted)--$-0.16$-0.18↓12%$-0.17↑15%$-0.67↑32%$-0.99↑15%$-1.16↑19%$-1.43↑39%$-2.33
Gross Margin————-102.5%↓1478%-6.5%↓121%31.4%——
Operating Margin-38755.2%-21159.5%↑62%-33346.7%↑39%-66857.1%↓175%-45066.7%↑5%-47577.9%↓266%-13013.4%↑24%-17034.3%↑61%-43164.6%
ROE-63.8%↓61%———-42.3%↑38%-68.8%↓33%-51.7%↓16%-44.7%↓77%-25.3%
Total Debt$0↓100%$0↓100%$0↓100%$0↓100%$2.0K↓99%$196.0K↓69%$636.0K↓42%$1.1M↑1919%$54.0K
Shareholders' Equity$52.4M↓36%$52.4M↓36%$59.4M↓33%$67.6M↓29%$75.4M↑58%$47.8M↓32%$70.2M↓29%$98.9M↓29%$138.6M
Current Ratio1.881.881.98↑14%2.12↑5%1.69↓12%1.92↓23%2.51↓57%5.80↓56%13.11
Debt / Equity0.00↓100%0.00↓100%0.00↓100%0.00↓100%0.00↓99%0.00↓55%0.01↓18%0.01↑2727%0.00
Operating Cash Flow-$28.5M↓11%-$7.3M↓13%-$6.3M↓15%-$8.8M↓16%-$25.6M↓81%-$14.2M↑48%-$27.2M↑21%-$34.6M↓9%-$31.6M
Free Cash Flow-$29.0M↓11%-$7.4M↓13%-$6.3M↓10%-$8.8M↓16%-$26.3M↓85%-$14.2M↑48%-$27.3M↑23%-$35.4M↓7%-$32.9M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Healthcare

SERA vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$81000.00Bottom 25%
Net Income$31.9MBottom 25%
ROE-42.3%Bottom 25%
D/E0.00Median
Op. Margin-45066.7%Bottom 25%
Curr. Ratio1.69Median
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchGreenblattPiotroskiDreman
HCA Healthcare, Inc.HCA$104.2B$499.05$75.6B$6.8B-112.6%-7.7113.0%0.971/95/93/71/3F-Score 64/11
TENET HEALTHCARE CORPTHC$22.8B$286.03$21.3B$2.4B56.1%3.1216.5%1.761/94/93/73/3F-Score 65/11
Guardant Health, Inc.GH$20.5B$151.70$982.0M$416.3M419.2%-15.14-44.5%4.842/91/91/70/3F-Score 52/11
EXACT SCIENCES CORPEXAS$20.0B$104.91$3.2B$207.9M-8.7%0.00-6.4%2.432/91/93/70/3F-Score 73/11
Fresenius Medical Care AGFMS$11.4B$22.03$23.1B$1.1B7.4%0.819.3%1.265/92/91/70/3F-Score 85/11
UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INCUHS$11.2B$194.07$17.4B$1.5B20.5%0.6511.5%1.054/96/95/71/3F-Score 76/11
DAVITA INC.DVA$11.0B$174.56$13.6B$746.8M-114.7%-15.7815.0%1.291/94/92/71/3F-Score 73/11
CHEMED CORPCHE$7.1B$548.20$2.5B$265.2M27.1%—13.4%1.054/97/93/71/3F-Score 66/11