Velo3D, Inc.

VELO
Price: $4.15Market Cap: $133.9M

Investment snapshot

0%positive consensus
Scored 1d ago

Positive

0

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

1 / 15

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

—

No comparable estimates

Models with upside

0 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

9 of 12 pass — Buffett, Piotroski and Marks object

Key risk

No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

MetricGraham

Defensive Value

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Lynch

GARP

Greenblatt

Magic Formula

Piotroski

F-Score

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Ackman

Activist Value

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Asness

Systematic Factors

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

O'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

VerdictFAILFAILFAILFAIL · Rank #2810 (Top 90.7%)FAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILFAILNEUTRAL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of SafetyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Financial Basis

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 vs 2025-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-03-31

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-03-31

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-03-31

Score computed: 2026-11-14

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-10

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

  • Debt & Leverage75% pass✓ 12✗ 3▾

    9 of 12 pass — Buffett, Piotroski and Marks object

    LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $7.4M vs NCA $116.2M
    ✓GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.00, IC: -35.9x
    ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Total Debt / Equity0
    ✓Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt$68.3M
    ✓LynchPositive preferred
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change7.64% -> 29.44%
    ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities5.12
    ✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0
    ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
    Debt Levels0
    ✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-35.9x, D/EBITDA=N/A
    ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.0012; #377/4210 (top 9.0%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

  • Profitability0% pass✓ 3✗ 32▾

    No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

    Positive EPS (10 years)1/7 years positive
    ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)1/7 years positive
    ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-152.9%
    ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-119.5% (latest)
    ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-70.7M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE-41.6%
    ✗Lynch> 15%
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-97.9%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-97.9%, ROC=-89.6%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Net Income / Total Assets-67.74%
    ✗PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY-88.96% -> -67.74% (delta: +21.22%)
    ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-25.94%, ROA=-67.74%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Gross Margin Change YoY-5.1% -> -16.1%
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-88.7%
    ✗Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-41.6%
    ✗Dreman> 12%
    Margin of SafetyP/B=2.7x
    ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity-237.0% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Discount to Intrinsic Value
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency1/6 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue-88.7%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity-41.6%
    ✗Ackman>= 15%
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend-172.1% (2023) -> -119.5% (2025)
    ✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin -33.9% -> -16.1%, operating margin -172.1% -> -119.5%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    Net income / market capitalization-42.65%; #4979/6340 (top 78.5%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Gross profit / total assets+2.10%; #3263/3702 (top 88.1%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / positive book equity-41.58%; #4101/5226 (top 78.5%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.3481; #4694/5884 (top 79.8%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years1/6 years positive
    ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
  • Valuation0% pass✓ 1✗ 27▾

    No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

    Price / 3-yr avg EPS
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio2.7x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    EBIT / Enterprise Value-97.9%
    ✗Greenblatt> 10%
    Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-97.9%, ROC=-89.6%
    ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
    Price / EPS
    ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
    Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Price / Book Value per Share2.7x
    ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
    Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-69.2%
    ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-22.4%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=2.7x
    ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price vs. Trailing Low167% of trailing low ($2.49)
    ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    Net income / market capitalization-42.65%; #4979/6340 (top 78.5%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Positive book equity / market capitalization+1.0255; #1445/6449 (top 22.4%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Price / Diluted EPS
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share2.68x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change
    ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Revenue / market capitalization+0.4808; #2678/5247 (top 51.0%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-49.98%; #3851/4519 (top 85.2%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-82.72%; #5868/6202 (top 94.6%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Cash Flow0% pass✓ 1✗ 11▾

    No clean pass — all 10 investors flag at least one cash flow criterion

    Free Cash Flow Proxy$-70.7M
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    FCF Positive and Growing$-30.0M
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Operating Cash Flow$-27.3M
    ✗PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-25.94%, ROA=-67.74%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-22.4%
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    FCF Positive0/6 years FCF positive
    ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-65.5%
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency0/6 years positive
    ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-66.9M
    ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-49.98%; #3851/4519 (top 85.2%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Growth0% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾

    No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
    ✗Graham>= 33% growth
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -13.1% vs Rev: 30.9%
    ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
    EPS Growth Direction
    ✗DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR
    ✗Dreman> 5% annualized
    Positive Net Income Frequency1/6 years positive
    ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth-1.6%
    ✗Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency
    ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    5-Year EPS CAGR
    ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin -33.9% -> -16.1%, operating margin -172.1% -> -119.5%
    ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR19.4%
    ✓SleepCAGR > 7%
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
  • Verdicts0% pass✗ 16▾

    Split decision: 15 FAIL · 1 NEUTRAL

    Overall verdict
    ✗GrahamFAIL (2/9)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (3/7)✗GreenblattRank #2810✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 3)✗DremanFAIL (2/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (0/5)✗AckmanFAIL (2/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1549/2370 (Top 65.4%))✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (2/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
  • Efficiency25% pass✓ 3✗ 8▾

    6 of 8 flag VELO's efficiency — Buffett, Greenblatt, Piotroski +3 more

    Current Ratio5.12
    ✓Graham>= 2.0
    ROIC (3-5 yr avg)-118.0%
    ✗Buffett> 10%
    ROIC - WACC-128.0%
    ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
    EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-89.6%
    ✗Greenblatt> 25%
    Current Ratio Change YoY1.52 -> 2.37
    ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY
    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.52x -> 0.44x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities5.12
    ✓Dreman> 1.5
    Return on Invested Capital-32.8%
    ✗Munger> 15%
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-153.3%; FY2024: ROIC=-121.2%; FY2025: ROIC=-112.7%
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest -112.7%)
    ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Machinery
SIC Sector: Industrial Machinery & Computing
Size: Micro Cap($133.9M)
Revenue: $46.0M+12.1% YoY
Net Income: $71.4M-2.3% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin-119.5%
Return on Equity-187.0%
Debt / Equity0.01
Current Ratio2.37
EPS (Diluted)$-4.33
Shares Retired−89.4% / −42.8% 2y

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Issued 89.4% of shares last year, 42.8% issued over two.

Buybacks
—
Dividends
—

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.

MetricTTM · 2026-09-30

2025-10-01 – 2026-09-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: revenue, net income, operating income, gross profit, ebit, pre tax income, interest expense, operating cash flow, depreciation amortization, capex.

Q3 FY 2026

2026-07-01 – 2026-09-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, depreciation amortization, capex.

Q2 FY 2026

2026-04-01 – 2026-06-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, depreciation amortization, capex.

Q1 FY 2026

2026-01-01 – 2026-03-31

Sources
FY 2025
Sources
  • 10-K · 2026-03-31
FY 2024
Sources
  • 10-K · 2025-03-31
FY 2023
Sources
  • 10-K · 2024-04-03
FY 2022
Sources
  • 10-K · 2024-04-03
FY 2021
Sources
  • 10-K · 2022-03-28
Market Cap$133.9Mcurrent------$324.1Mest.$17.1Mest.$42.6Best.$236.3Best.$198.7Best.
Revenue$64.4M↑31%$20.4M↑50%$20.7M↑52%$13.8M↑48%$46.0M↑12%$41.0M↓47%$77.4M↓2%$78.7M↑187%$27.4M
Operating Income-$57.1M↓2%-$17.3M↓63%-$11.1M↑9%-$6.9M↑42%-$54.9M↑30%-$78.8M↑41%-$133.3M↓25%-$106.3M↓84%-$57.8M
Net Income-$57.1M↑21%-$16.7M↓41%-$11.5M↑16%-$7.0M↑72%-$71.4M↓2%-$69.7M↑48%-$135.1M↓1796%$8.0M↑107%-$107.1M
EPS (Diluted)--$-0.52↑25%$-0.39↑60%$-0.28↓115%$-4.33↑25%$-5.77↓749%$-0.68↓1460%$0.05↑103%$-1.82
Gross Margin8.2%↑548%26.5%↑735%21.5%↑284%17.2%↑130%-16.1%↓217%-5.1%↑85%-33.9%↓3267%1.1%↓94%18.1%
Operating Margin-88.7%↑22%-84.5%↓8%-53.5%↑40%-50.3%↑61%-119.5%↑38%-192.2%↓12%-172.1%↓27%-135.1%↑36%-210.5%
ROE-41.6%↑83%———-187.0%↑43%-326.3%↓65%-197.7%↓3544%5.7%↑110%-58.9%
Total Debt$169.0K↑13%$169.0K↑13%$217.0K↓99%$272.0K↑23%$327.0K↓99%$30.0M↑9388%$316.0K↑690%$40.0K↓46%$74.0K
Shareholders' Equity$137.3M↑355%$137.3M↑355%$146.5M↑580%$51.5M↑57%$38.2M↑79%$21.4M↓69%$68.3M↓51%$138.8M↓24%$181.7M
Current Ratio5.12↑225%5.12↑225%6.33↑454%2.45↑74%2.37↑56%1.52↓35%2.32↓47%4.38↑6%4.14
Debt / Equity0.00↓75%0.00↓75%0.00↓100%0.01↓22%0.01↓99%1.40↑30239%0.00↑1504%0.00↓29%0.00
Operating Cash Flow-$59.9M↓175%-$12.7M↓110%-$21.6M↓1673%-$18.0M↓46%-$27.3M↑16%-$32.7M↑69%-$105.6M↑15%-$124.0M↓120%-$56.4M
Free Cash Flow-$66.9M-$14.6M↓130%-$25.1M↓732%-$18.9M↓53%-$30.0M↑8%-$32.7M↑69%-$106.7M↑23%-$137.8M↓109%-$66.0M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Machinery

VELO vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$46.0MBottom 25%
Net Income$71.4MBottom 25%
ROE-187.0%Bottom 25%
D/E0.01Top 25%
Op. Margin-119.5%Bottom 25%
Curr. Ratio2.37Median
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchGreenblattPiotroskiDreman
LAM RESEARCH CORPLRCX$282.2B$225.92$23.2B$7.3B58.3%0.3035.3%2.633/95/95/71/3F-Score 85/11
CATERPILLAR INCCAT$274.6B$600.20$67.6B$8.9B41.7%1.7016.5%1.442/95/94/71/3F-Score 65/11
DEERE & CODE$181.6B$673.54$45.7B$5.0B19.4%0.5313.7%—2/96/94/70/3F-Score 54/11
Johnson Controls International plcJCI$84.4B$139.33$23.6B$3.3B25.5%0.71—0.932/91/94/71/3F-Score 64/11
CUMMINS INCCMI$61.9B$452.18$33.7B$3.0B23.9%0.5612.0%1.762/94/93/71/3F-Score 67/11
ITT INC.ITT$18.8B$211.18$3.9B$488.0M11.9%0.1917.4%2.582/94/93/71/3F-Score 53/11
REGAL REXNORD CORPRRX$11.7B$176.41$5.9B$279.5M4.1%0.7011.5%2.153/91/91/71/3F-Score 63/11
GRACO INCGGG$11.6B$72.42$2.2B$521.8M19.7%0.0027.9%3.154/97/94/71/3F-Score 75/11