ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

ZTO

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services.

About the company

Country: ChinaPrice: $20.32Market Cap: $15.2B

Investment snapshot

47%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

6 / 3

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$22.38

+10.1% vs price

Models with upside

8 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

7 of 8 pass — Sleep objects

Key risk

Split decision: 6 NEUTRAL · 4 BUY · 3 FAIL · 3 PASS

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	PASS	BUY	BUY · Rank #405 (Top 13.1%)	BUY	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	NEUTRAL	BUY	NEUTRAL	PASS	BUY	PASS	NEUTRAL	FAIL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)					N/A								N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	+2.3%	+50.0%	+9.2%	-34.7%	N/A	+10.8%	+8.8%	+12.6%	+36.8%	-29.3%	+43.1%	-20.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-04-17 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Growth88% pass✓ 12✗ 1▾
7 of 8 pass — Sleep objects
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)588.0%
✓Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.91
✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR14.0%
✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 9.9% vs Rev: 15.7%
✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction$0.11 (2014) -> $1.60 (2025)
✓DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR27.6% CAGR over 11 years
✓Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency12/12 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth12.2%
✓Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency4/5 years with positive EPS growth
✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR14.0% CAGR over 5 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 30.4% -> 25.0%, operating margin 26.0% -> 21.3%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR12.7%
✓SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR14.0% over 5 years
✓Neff7%-20% annualized
Cash Flow80% pass✓ 10✗ 2▾
8 of 10 pass — Dreman and Oshaughnessy object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$1.3B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$965.4M
✓LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$1.7B
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=13.15%, ROA=9.98%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)9.4x
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=12.7x, FCF Yield=6.4%
✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive10/12 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap6.0%
✓Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share16.6x
✓Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency12/12 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$965.4M
✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+6.36%; #1284/4519 (top 28.4%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Verdicts73% pass✓ 8✗ 3▾
Split decision: 6 NEUTRAL · 4 BUY · 3 FAIL · 3 PASS
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)✓BuffettPASS (4/9)✓LynchBUY (5/7)✓GreenblattRank #405✓PiotroskiBUY (F-Score 8)•DremanNEUTRAL (7/11)•MungerNEUTRAL (3/4)•PabraiNEUTRAL (2/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)•MarksNEUTRAL (4/5)✓AckmanBUY (8/9)•TempletonNEUTRAL (5/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)✓AsnessBUY (Rank #192/2370 (Top 8.1%))✓NeffPASS (6/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #318/963 (Top 33.0%))
Valuation models73% pass✓ 8✗ 3▾
Models split on ZTO at $20.32 — fair values range $15.08–$40.66
Graham fair value$20.80
✓Graham+2.3% margin vs $20.32
Buffett fair value$40.66
✓Buffett+50.0% margin vs $20.32
Lynch fair value$22.38
✓Lynch+9.2% margin vs $20.32
Greenblatt fair value$15.08
✗Greenblatt-34.7% margin vs $20.32
Dreman fair value$22.79
✓Dreman+10.8% margin vs $20.32
Munger fair value$22.29
✓Munger+8.8% margin vs $20.32
Pabrai fair value$23.25
✓Pabrai+12.6% margin vs $20.32
Akre fair value$32.17
✓Akre+36.8% margin vs $20.32
Marks fair value$15.71
✗Marks-29.3% margin vs $20.32
Ackman fair value$35.72
✓Ackman+43.1% margin vs $20.32
Templeton fair value$16.88
✗Templeton-20.4% margin vs $20.32
Debt & Leverage67% pass✓ 11✗ 4▾
8 of 12 pass — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +1 more object
LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.00, IC: 40.1x
✓BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity0
✓Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.49
✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0
✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels0
✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=40.1x, D/EBITDA=0.0x
✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0
✓Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.0019; #409/4210 (top 9.7%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

Profitability31% pass✓ 20✗ 15▾
11 of 16 flag ZTO's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more
Net income / market capitalization+8.56%; #876/6340 (top 13.8%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive EPS (10 years)12/13 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)588.0%
✓Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)12/13 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)13.0%
✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)21.3% (latest)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$1.3B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)0.50
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.91
✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR14.0%
✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE13.7%
✗Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value10.9%
✓Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=10.9%, ROC=28.7%
✓GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets9.98%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY9.55% -> 9.98% (delta: +0.43%)
✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=13.15%, ROA=9.98%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY31.0% -> 25.0%
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue22.5%
✓Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity13.7%
✓Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/E=12.7x, P/B=1.7x
✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity14.2% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value10.8% (IV=$22.79 vs Price=$20.32)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency12/12 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue21.3%
✓Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity13.7%
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR14.0% CAGR over 5 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend26.0% (2023) -> 21.3% (2025)
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 30.4% -> 25.0%, operating margin 26.0% -> 21.3%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Gross profit / total assets+13.48%; #2533/3702 (top 68.4%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity+13.68%; #1306/5226 (top 25.0%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0091; #761/5884 (top 12.9%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR14.0% over 5 years
✓Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years10/10 years positive
✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Efficiency38% pass✓ 5✗ 6▾
5 of 8 flag ZTO's efficiency — Graham, Dreman, Munger +2 more
Current Ratio1.49
✗Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)13.7%
✓Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC+3.7%
✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)28.7%
✓Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY1.07 -> 1.49
✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.48x -> 0.54x
✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.49
✗Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital12.4%
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=11.7%; FY2024: ROIC=13.4%; FY2025: ROIC=12.4%
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC7.3% (RR=59% x ROIC=12.4%)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)2/5 years above 12% (latest 12.4%)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Valuation46% pass✓ 13✗ 15▾
7 of 13 flag ZTO's valuation — Graham, Dreman, Marks +4 more
Net income / market capitalization+8.56%; #876/6340 (top 13.8%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Price / 3-yr avg EPS13.4x
✓Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio1.7x
✗Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B22.60
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.91
✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value10.9%
✓Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=10.9%, ROC=28.7%
✓GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS12.7x
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)9.4x
✗Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share1.7x
✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=12.7x, OE Yield=6.5%
✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=12.7x, FCF Yield=6.4%
✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=12.7x, P/B=1.7x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value10.8% (IV=$22.79 vs Price=$20.32)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share16.6x
✓Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low115% of trailing low ($17.60)
✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.6254; #2444/6449 (top 37.9%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS12.7x
✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E1.36
✓Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share1.80x
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change+32.7%
✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.4626; #2739/5247 (top 52.2%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+6.36%; #1284/4519 (top 28.4%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-8.14%; #3321/6202 (top 53.5%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Transportation

SIC Sector: Motor Freight & Warehousing

Size: Large Cap($15.2B)

Revenue: $7.0B+15.7% YoY

Net Income: $1.3B+7.4% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin21.3%

Return on Equity13.7%

Debt / Equity0.00

Current Ratio1.49

EPS (Diluted)$1.60+9.1% 1y

Buybacks (1y)$179.1M

Buybacks (2y)$337.7M

Shares Retired1.2% / 2.0% 2y

Similar Companies

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$95.9B

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$86.5B

CNICANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO

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Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 1.2% of shares last year, 2.0% over two.

Buybacks: $179.1M
Dividends: $536.8M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22

31.9% = 31.0% + 0.7%

FY23

24.2% = 25.9% + −1.3%

FY24

−1.7% = −1.9% + 0.2%

FY25

9.1% = 7.4% + 1.5%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2025 Sources 20-F · 2026-04-17	FY 2024 Sources 20-F · 2025-04-17	FY 2023 Sources 20-F · 2024-04-19	FY 2022 Sources 20-F · 2023-04-20	FY 2021 Sources 20-F · 2022-04-28
Market Cap	$15.2Bcurrent	$14.9Best.	$12.1Best.	$21.0Best.	$21.9Best.
Revenue	$7.0B↑16%	$6.1B↑12%	$5.4B↑6%	$5.1B↑6%	$4.8B
Operating Income	$1.5B↓7%	$1.6B↑15%	$1.4B↑27%	$1.1B↑29%	$863.6M
Net Income	$1.3B↑7%	$1.2B↓2%	$1.2B↑26%	$977.9M↑31%	$746.2M
EPS (Diluted)	$1.60↑9%	$1.47↓2%	$1.49↑24%	$1.20↑32%	$0.91
Gross Margin	25.0%↓19%	31.0%↑2%	30.4%↑19%	25.6%↑18%	21.7%
Operating Margin	21.3%↓20%	26.6%↑2%	26.0%↑19%	21.9%↑21%	18.1%
ROE	13.7%↓4%	14.2%↓3%	14.6%↑16%	12.6%↑29%	9.8%
Total Debt	$17.7M↓98%	$996.2M↓9%	$1.1B↑41%	$774.7M↑43%	$542.8M
Shareholders' Equity	$9.5B↑12%	$8.5B↑1%	$8.4B↑8%	$7.8B↑2%	$7.6B
Current Ratio	1.49↑38%	1.07↓20%	1.34↓10%	1.49↑4%	1.44
Debt / Equity	0.00↓98%	0.12↓10%	0.13↑30%	0.10↑40%	0.07
Operating Cash Flow	$1.7B↑9%	$1.6B↓17%	$1.9B↑14%	$1.6B↑45%	$1.1B
Free Cash Flow	$965.4M↑13%	$852.5M↓11%	$961.3M↑52%	$633.6M↑454%	-$178.9M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Transportation

ZTO vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$7.0BBottom 25%

Net Income$1.3BBottom 25%

ROE13.7%Bottom 25%

D/E0.00Top 25%

Op. Margin21.3%Bottom 25%

Curr. Ratio1.49Top 25%

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski	Dreman
UNION PACIFIC CORPUNP	$179.7B	$302.44	$24.5B	$7.1B	38.7%	1.72	40.2%	0.91	2/9	4/9	4/7	0/3	F-Score 7	3/11
CSX CORPCSX	$95.9B	$52.05	$14.1B	$2.9B	22.0%	1.43	32.1%	0.81	2/9	4/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 5	3/11
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTDRCL	$86.5B	$323.27	$17.9B	$4.3B	42.5%	2.13	27.4%	0.18	1/9	1/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 7	3/11
CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY COCNI	$76.3B	$127.18	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORPNSC	$73.6B	$327.88	$12.2B	$2.9B	18.5%	1.10	35.8%	0.85	3/9	6/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 6	5/11
MPLX LPMPLX	$58.0B	$57.25	$13.0B	$5.0B	34.6%	1.79	45.7%	1.23	2/9	4/9	4/7	1/3	F-Score 6	8/11
Carnival Corp Ltd.CCL	$39.3B	$29.23	$26.6B	$2.8B	22.5%	2.17	16.8%	0.32	1/9	1/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 7	4/11
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.ODFL	$36.0B	$174.54	$5.5B	$1.0B	23.7%	0.01	24.8%	1.44	3/9	7/9	5/7	1/3	F-Score 6	5/11