AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC

AFG
Country: United StatesPrice: $161.02Market Cap: $13.3B

Investment snapshot

38%positive consensus
Scored 1d ago

Positive

6

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

4 / 6

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$151.56

-5.9% vs price

Models with upside

2 / 16

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

5 of 8 pass — Lynch, Ackman and Neff object

Key risk

11 of 12 flag AFG's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +8 more

Framework analysis

VerdictMeaning
BUYPositive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASSThe company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRALNeither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAILThe company does not clear the framework's requirements.
RankedRanked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

MetricGraham

Defensive Value

Buffett

Quality Compounder

Lynch

GARP

Piotroski

F-Score

Dreman

Contrarian Value

Munger

Quality Focus

Pabrai

Dhandho Framework

Akre

Three-Legged Stool

Marks

Risk-Aware Value

Ackman

Activist Value

Templeton

Global Bargain Hunter

Sleep

Scale Economies Shared

Asness

Systematic Factors

Neff

Low-P/E Total Return

Schloss

Asset-Value Discipline

O'Shaughnessy

Systematic Factor Composite

VerdictPASSPASSFAILPASSNEUTRALBUYFAILFAILFAILNEUTRALPASSBUYNEUTRALFAILFAILNEUTRAL
Score
AnalysisChecking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…Checking access…
Intrinsic Value (annual)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Margin of Safety-40.6%N/A-279.0%N/A-4.9%N/A-48.3%+33.9%-6.2%N/A+5.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Financial Basis

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-02-25

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-02-25

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-02-25

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment

Latest source filing: 2026-02-25

Score computed: 2026-11-14

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025

Latest source filing: 2026-02-25

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01

Latest source filing: 2026-11-05

Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

  • Growth63% pass✓ 9✗ 3▾

    5 of 8 pass — Lynch, Ackman and Neff object

    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)193.8%
    ✓Graham>= 33% growth
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)3.79
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR4.2%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    EPS Growth Direction$1.67 (2008) -> $10.08 (2025)
    ✓DremanPositive over recent years
    EPS CAGR11.2% CAGR over 17 years
    ✓Dreman> 5% annualized
    Positive Net Income Frequency18/18 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    3yr Median Revenue Growth6.3%
    ✓Ackman>= 5%
    Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
    ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
    5-Year EPS CAGR4.2% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 13.7% -> 13.1%
    ✓SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    5-year Revenue CAGR7.2%
    ✓SleepCAGR > 7%
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR4.2% over 5 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
  • Debt & Leverage55% pass✓ 7✗ 6▾

    6 of 11 pass — Lynch, Piotroski, Akre +2 more object

    Debt Levels0.39
    ✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
    Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.39, IC: 13.9x
    ✓BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
    Total Debt / Equity0.39
    ✗Lynch< 0.33
    Cash - Long-term Debt$-473.0M
    ✗LynchPositive preferred
    LT Debt / Total Assets Change4.78% -> 5.58%
    ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
    Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.39
    ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
    Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=13.4x, D/EBITDA=1.6x
    ✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
    Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.39
    ✓Ackman<= 1.0
    Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.3852; #2215/4210 (top 52.6%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Current Assets / Current Liabilities
    ✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

Where It Falls Short

  • Valuation8% pass✓ 2✗ 24▾

    11 of 12 flag AFG's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +8 more

    Net income / market capitalization+7.65%; #1060/6340 (top 16.7%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Price / 3-yr avg EPS15.7x
    ✗Graham<= 15x
    Price-to-Book Ratio2.8x
    ✗Graham<= 1.5x
    P/E x P/B43.80
    ✗Graham<= 22.5
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)3.79
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    Price / EPS16.0x
    ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
    Price / (CFO / Shares)8.7x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    Price / Book Value per Share2.8x
    ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
    Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=16.0x, OE Yield=6.9%
    ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=16.0x
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=16.0x, P/B=2.8x
    ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-4.9% (IV=$153.50 vs Price=$161.02)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Price / FCF per Share
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Price vs. Trailing Low130% of trailing low ($123.98)
    ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
    Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.3547; #3449/6449 (top 53.5%)
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Price / Diluted EPS16.0x
    ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
    (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E0.55
    ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
    Price / Tangible Book Value per Share3.12x
    ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
    Book Value per Share Change-26.4%
    ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
    Revenue / market capitalization+0.6401; #2318/5247 (top 44.2%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+24.05%; #1196/6202 (top 19.3%)
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Cash Flow20% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

    8 of 10 flag AFG's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Dreman +5 more

    Free Cash Flow Proxy
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    FCF Positive and Growing
    ✗LynchPositive and growing
    Operating Cash Flow$1.5B
    ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=4.70%, ROA=2.58%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Price / (CFO / Shares)8.7x
    ✗Dreman< 8x
    P/E or FCF YieldP/E=16.0x
    ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
    FCF Positive
    ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
    (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap
    ✗Ackman>= 4%
    Price / FCF per Share
    ✗Ackman<= 25
    Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency18/18 years positive
    ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
    Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
    ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
    (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
    ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
  • Valuation models29% pass✓ 2✗ 5▾

    Models split on AFG at $161.02 — fair values range $42.49–$243.69

    Graham fair value$114.56
    ✗Graham-40.6% margin vs $161.02
    Lynch fair value$42.49
    ✗Lynch-279.0% margin vs $161.02
    Dreman fair value$153.50
    ✗Dreman-4.9% margin vs $161.02
    Pabrai fair value$108.58
    ✗Pabrai-48.3% margin vs $161.02
    Akre fair value$243.69
    ✓Akre+33.9% margin vs $161.02
    Marks fair value$151.56
    ✗Marks-6.2% margin vs $161.02
    Templeton fair value$169.43
    ✓Templeton+5.0% margin vs $161.02
  • Profitability33% pass✓ 20✗ 12▾

    10 of 15 flag AFG's profitability — Buffett, Lynch, Piotroski +7 more

    Net income / market capitalization+7.65%; #1060/6340 (top 16.7%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
    Positive EPS (10 years)18/18 years positive
    ✓GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
    EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)193.8%
    ✓Graham>= 33% growth
    Net Income Positive (10+ years)18/18 years positive
    ✓BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
    ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)23.9%
    ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
    Operating Margin (10-yr trend)13.1% (latest)
    ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
    Free Cash Flow Proxy
    ✗BuffettPositive and growing
    Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)0.63
    ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
    Retained Earnings Effectiveness
    ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
    Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)3.79
    ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
    3-5 Year EPS CAGR4.2%
    ✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
    ROE21.6%
    ✓Lynch> 15%
    Net Income / Total Assets2.58%
    ✓PiotroskiROA > 0
    ROA Change YoY2.88% -> 2.58% (delta: -0.30%)
    ✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
    (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=4.70%, ROA=2.58%
    ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
    Pre-Tax Income / Revenue12.6%
    ✓Dreman>= 8%
    Net Income / Shareholders' Equity21.6%
    ✓Dreman> 12%
    Margin of SafetyP/E=16.0x, P/B=2.8x
    ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
    Return on Equity19.1% (3-yr avg)
    ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
    Discount to Intrinsic Value-4.9% (IV=$153.50 vs Price=$161.02)
    ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
    Positive Net Income Frequency18/18 years positive
    ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
    Operating Income / Revenue15.2%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    Net Income / Shareholders Equity21.6%
    ✓Ackman>= 15%
    5-Year EPS CAGR4.2% CAGR over 5 years
    ✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
    Operating Margin Trend13.7% (2023) -> 13.1% (2025)
    ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
    Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue up, operating margin 13.7% -> 13.1%
    ✓SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
    Gross profit / total assets
    ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Net income / positive book equity+21.58%; #726/5226 (top 13.9%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0162; #1224/5884 (top 20.8%)
    ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
    3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR4.2% over 5 years
    ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
    Positive Diluted-EPS Years10/10 years positive
    ✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
  • Efficiency50% pass✓ 2✗ 3▾

    2 of 4 pass — Piotroski and Akre object

    Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.27x -> 0.25x
    ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
    Return on Invested Capital15.6%
    ✓Munger> 15%
    ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=14.8%; FY2024: ROIC=14.9%; FY2025: ROIC=12.8%
    ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
    Reinvestment Rate x ROIC6.7% (RR=43% x ROIC=15.6%)
    ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
    ROIC (5-year)5/5 years above 12% (latest 12.8%)
    ✓SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
  • Verdicts50% pass✓ 6✗ 6▾

    Split decision: 6 FAIL · 4 PASS · 4 NEUTRAL · 2 BUY

    Overall verdict
    ✓GrahamPASS (4/7)✓BuffettPASS (4/7)✗LynchFAIL (2/6)✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)•DremanNEUTRAL (7/10)✓MungerBUY (4/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)•AckmanNEUTRAL (6/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✓SleepBUY (5/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Insurance
SIC Sector: Insurance Carriers
Size: Large Cap($13.3B)
Revenue: $8.2B-1.8% YoY
Net Income: $842.0M-5.1% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin13.1%
Return on Equity17.5%
Debt / Equity0.38
Current Ratio--
EPS (Diluted)$10.08−4.6% 1y
Buybacks (1y)$99.0M
Buybacks (2y)$99.0M
Shares Retired0.8% / 0.4% 2y
Sector-adjusted criteria: Insurer

Insurers file unclassified balance sheets with no inventory or current accounts, so those criteria are omitted rather than failed for missing data. Return-on-invested-capital tests are omitted too: float funds the balance sheet but never appears in invested capital, and the portfolio it is invested in would be subtracted as spare cash. Debt tests are kept — an insurer’s borrowings are real leverage on top of underwriting.

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 0.8% of shares last year, 0.4% over two.

Buybacks
$99.0M
Dividends
$606.0M

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22
−54.8% = −55.0% + 0.4%
FY23
−4.6% = −5.1% + 0.6%
FY24
5.2% = 4.1% + 1.0%
FY25
−4.6% = −5.1% + 0.5%
Earnings Fewer shares More shares

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.

MetricTTM · 2026-09-30

2025-10-01 – 2026-09-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: revenue, net income, operating income, ebit, interest expense, operating cash flow, dividends paid, buybacks.

Q3 FY 2026

2026-07-01 – 2026-09-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, dividends paid, buybacks.

Q2 FY 2026

2026-04-01 – 2026-06-30

Sources · derived quarter values

Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, dividends paid, buybacks.

Q1 FY 2026

2026-01-01 – 2026-03-31

Sources
FY 2025
Sources
  • 10-K · 2026-02-25
FY 2024
Sources
  • 10-K · 2025-02-25
FY 2023
Sources
  • 10-K · 2024-02-23
FY 2022
Sources
  • 10-K · 2023-02-24
FY 2021
Sources
  • 10-K · 2022-02-25
Market Cap$13.3Bcurrent------$10.9Best.$11.5Best.$8.6Best.$9.8Best.$8.0Best.
Revenue$8.5B↑3%$2.6B↑11%$2.0B↑6%$1.9B$8.2B↓2%$8.3B↑6%$7.8B↑11%$7.0B↑7%$6.6B
Operating Income$1.3B↑28%$359.0M↑34%$316.0M↑38%$239.0M↑21%$1.1B↓5%$1.1B↑5%$1.1B↓4%$1.1B↓16%$1.3B
Net Income$1.0B↑28%$282.0M↑31%$248.0M↑43%$191.0M↑24%$842.0M↓5%$887.0M↑4%$852.0M↓5%$898.0M↓55%$2.0B
EPS (Diluted)--$3.40↑32%$2.99↑44%$2.29↑24%$10.08↓5%$10.57↑5%$10.05↓5%$10.53↓55%$23.30
Gross Margin—————————
Operating Margin15.2%↑23%13.9%↑21%15.6%↑31%12.9%↑21%13.1%↓3%13.5%↓2%13.7%↓14%16.0%↓22%20.4%
ROE21.6%↑28%———17.5%↓12%19.9%↓1%20.0%↓10%22.2%↓44%39.8%
Total Debt$1.8B$1.8B$1.8B↑23%$1.8B↑23%$1.8B↑23%$1.5B$1.5B↓1%$1.5B↓24%$2.0B
Shareholders' Equity$4.7B$4.7B$4.8B↑7%$4.7B↑7%$4.8B↑8%$4.5B↑5%$4.3B↑5%$4.1B↓19%$5.0B
Current Ratio—————————
Debt / Equity0.390.390.38↑16%0.39↑16%0.38↑14%0.33↓5%0.35↓6%0.37↓6%0.39
Operating Cash Flow$1.8B↑23%$405.0M↑88%$92.0M↓52%$474.0M↑39%$1.5B↑33%$1.2B↓42%$2.0B↑71%$1.2B↓33%$1.7B
Free Cash Flow------------------

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Insurance

AFG vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$8.2BBottom 25%
Net Income$842.0MBottom 25%
ROE17.5%Median
D/E0.38Median
Op. Margin13.1%Median
Curr. Ratio—
CompanyMarket CapPriceRevenueNet IncomeROED/EOp. MarginCurr. RatioGrahamBuffettLynchPiotroskiDreman
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH$365.1B$407.46$447.6B$12.1B12.0%0.784.2%0.793/74/72/6F-Score 63/10
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/PGR$136.6B$235.78$87.7B$11.3B37.3%0.23——2/72/74/6F-Score 68/10
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.MRSH$98.8B$207.78$27.0B$4.2B27.2%1.2823.1%1.103/73/72/6F-Score 65/10
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTDCILJF$85.1B$3.01——————5/71/73/6F-Score 55/10
Aon plcAON$71.8B$338.31$17.2B$3.7B39.5%1.6325.3%1.112/74/73/6F-Score 63/10
HUMANA INCHUM$54.0B$450.00$129.7B$1.2B6.7%0.702.1%2.003/72/71/6F-Score 44/10
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INCSLF$40.5B$72.93$30.6B$2.6B14.5%0.33——3/73/72/6F-Score 66/10
HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.HIG$36.8B$137.48$28.4B$3.8B20.2%0.23——3/73/74/6F-Score 78/10