Armour Residential REIT, Inc.

ARR

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans; and unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust.

About the company

Country: United StatesPrice: $11.93Market Cap: $1.7B

Investment snapshot

12%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

3 / 11

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$30.17

+152.9% vs price

Models with upside

2 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

ARR undervalued: all 2 models price fair value above $11.93 (median $30.17)

Key risk

No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	Not ranked	PASS	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL
Score
Analysis	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…
Intrinsic Value (annual)		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	+69.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	+44.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-10-21 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-10-21 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-10-21 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-10-21 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-18 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-10-21 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Valuation models100% pass✓ 2▾
ARR undervalued: all 2 models price fair value above $11.93 (median $30.17)
Graham fair value$38.73
✓Graham+69.2% margin vs $11.93
Pabrai fair value$21.60
✓Pabrai+44.8% margin vs $11.93

Where It Falls Short

Profitability0% pass✓ 3✗ 32▾
No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion
Positive EPS (10 years)6/18 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)5/18 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-2.3%
✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy
✗BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE-2.2%
✗Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets1.54%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY-0.11% -> 1.54% (delta: +1.64%)
✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=0.59%, ROA=1.54%
✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue
✗Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-2.2%
✗Dreman> 12%
Margin of Safety
✗PabraiP/FFO < 15
Return on Equity2.6% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency5/17 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity-2.2%
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Net income / market capitalization-3.08%; #3678/6340 (top 58.0%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Gross profit / total assets
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity-2.22%; #3065/5226 (top 58.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0129; #1009/5884 (top 17.1%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years3/10 years positive
✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Growth0% pass✓ 1✗ 12▾
No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)
✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency5/17 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth
✗Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR
✗SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Efficiency0% pass✗ 11▾
All 8 investors flag ARR's efficiency
Current Ratio
✗Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)
✗Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC
✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)
✗Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
✗Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Debt & Leverage8% pass✓ 1✗ 14▾
11 of 12 flag ARR's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more
LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest Coverage
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity
✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDA
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity
✗Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Valuation15% pass✓ 9✗ 16▾
11 of 13 flag ARR's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +8 more
Price / FFO per Share
✗Graham<= 15x✗Dreman< 12x✗Ackman<= 25
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / (CFO / Shares)10.7x
✗Dreman< 8x
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=3.6x
✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/FFO or FFO Yield
✗PabraiP/FFO < 15 or FFO Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=3.6x, P/B=0.6x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / EPS3.6x
✓Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price vs. Trailing Low100% of trailing low ($11.93)
✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Price / Book Value per Share0.6x
✓Templeton< 1.5x✓SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Net income / market capitalization-3.08%; #3678/6340 (top 58.0%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive book equity / market capitalization+1.3920; #998/6449 (top 15.5%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS3.6x
✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share0.59x
✓SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change
✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-30.44%; #4436/6202 (top 71.5%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Verdicts15% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾
Split decision: 11 FAIL · 3 NEUTRAL · 2 PASS
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (1/7)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗DremanFAIL (2/10)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)✗AckmanFAIL (0/9)•TempletonNEUTRAL (5/8)✗SleepFAIL (1/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
Cash Flow17% pass✓ 2✗ 5▾
5 of 6 flag ARR's cash flow — Buffett, Piotroski, Dreman +2 more
Free Cash Flow Proxy
✗BuffettPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$124.2M
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=0.59%, ROA=1.54%
✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)10.7x
✗Dreman< 8x
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency13/17 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Trading

SIC Sector: Holding & Investment Offices

Size: Small Cap($1.7B)

Revenue: N/A

Net Income: $322.7M+2341.8% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin--

Return on Equity14.3%

Debt / Equity--

Current Ratio--

EPS (Diluted)$3.30

Buybacks (1y)$19.9M

Buybacks (2y)$21.3M

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Sector-adjusted criteria: REIT

Depreciation distorts REIT earnings and book value, so FFO-based criteria replace P/E and free-cash-flow tests, and P/B tests are omitted.

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Share retirement not available for this company.

Buybacks: $19.9M
Dividends: $283.5M

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.

Metric	TTM · 2026-09-30 2025-10-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-K · 2026-02-18 10-Q · 2026-04-22 10-Q · 2026-07-22 10-Q · 2026-10-21 Derived from cumulative filings: net income, operating cash flow, dividends paid, buybacks.	Q3 FY 2026 2026-07-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-Q · 2026-10-21 Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, buybacks.	Q2 FY 2026 2026-04-01 – 2026-06-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-Q · 2026-07-22 Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, buybacks.	Q1 FY 2026 2026-01-01 – 2026-03-31 Sources 10-Q · 2026-04-22	FY 2025 Sources 10-K · 2026-02-18	FY 2024 Sources 10-K · 2026-02-18	FY 2023 Sources 10-K · 2024-03-15	FY 2022 Sources 10-K · 2023-02-15	FY 2021 Sources 10-K · 2022-02-16
Market Cap	$1.7Bcurrent	--	--	--	$1.9Best.	$981.6Mest.	$618.7Mest.	$2.8Best.	$2.1Best.
Revenue	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Operating Income	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Net Income	-$52.1M↓181%	-$323.7M↓303%	$114.8M↑252%	-$54.9M↓301%	$322.7M↑2342%	-$14.4M↑79%	-$67.9M↑70%	-$229.9M↓1597%	$15.4M
EPS (Diluted)	--	$-2.26↓252%	$0.86↑191%	$-0.49↓253%	$3.30↑747%	$-0.51↑73%	$-1.86↑9%	$-2.05↓4200%	$0.05
Gross Margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROE	-2.2%↓173%	—	—	—	14.3%↑1450%	-1.1%↑80%	-5.3%↑74%	-20.7%↓1639%	1.3%
Total Debt	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Shareholders' Equity	$2.4B↑10%	$2.4B↑10%	$2.6B↑55%	$2.3B↑37%	$2.3B↑66%	$1.4B↑7%	$1.3B↑14%	$1.1B↓3%	$1.1B
Current Ratio	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Debt / Equity	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Cash Flow	$456.2M↑155%	$98.9M↑362%	$210.2M↑742%	$111.6M↑10%	$124.2M↓52%	$261.5M↑97%	$132.8M↑7%	$124.1M↑957%	$11.7M
Free Cash Flow	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Trading

ARR vs Peers — Financial Grading

RevenueN/A

Net Income$322.7MMedian

ROE14.3%Top 25%

D/E—

Op. Margin—

Curr. Ratio—

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REALTY INCOME CORPO	$56.1B	$58.82	$5.7B	$1.1B	2.7%	0.63	16.8%	—	2/7	1/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 6	4/10
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RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INCRJF	$32.4B	$168.64	$15.9B	$2.1B	17.1%	0.28	—	—	3/9	3/9	3/7	1/3	F-Score 6	4/11
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LandBridge Co LLCLB	$5.6B	$73.15	$199.1M	$30.1M	8.9%	1.65	59.5%	4.87	2/9	3/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 6	3/11
Digital Turbine, Inc.APPS	$927.6M	$7.61	$565.3M	$37.7M	-19.6%	1.88	6.0%	1.16	1/9	2/9	2/7	1/3	F-Score 7	0/11