BHP Group Ltd

BHP

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal.

About the company

Country: AustraliaPrice: $79.49Market Cap: $202.0B

Investment snapshot

24%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

5 / 8

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$25.13

-68.4% vs price

Models with upside

0 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Key risk

No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	BUY · Rank #589 (Top 19%)	PASS	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL	PASS	PASS	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)					N/A								N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	-310.6%	-216.3%	-1710.7%	-155.7%	N/A	-170.6%	-273.0%	-425.4%	-73.6%	-195.0%	-425.0%	-86.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-08-22 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

Valuation0% pass✓ 1✗ 27▾
No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion
Net income / market capitalization+4.46%; #1850/6340 (top 29.2%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Price / 3-yr avg EPS40.6x
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio8.5x
✗Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B343.50
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)18.12
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value9.0%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=9.0%, ROC=25.5%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS44.8x
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)21.6x
✗Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share8.5x
✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=44.8x, OE Yield=1.3%
✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=44.8x, FCF Yield=4.6%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=44.8x, P/B=8.5x
✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value-170.6% (IV=$29.38 vs Price=$79.49)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share43.4x
✗Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low167% of trailing low ($47.55)
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.2359; #3999/6449 (top 62.0%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS44.8x
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E0.10
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share8.71x
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change
✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.2537; #3540/5247 (top 67.5%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+4.60%; #1657/4519 (top 36.7%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-10.59%; #3471/6202 (top 56.0%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Valuation models0% pass✗ 11▾
BHP overvalued: all 11 models price fair value below $79.49 (median $25.13)
Graham fair value$19.36
✗Graham-310.6% margin vs $79.49
Buffett fair value$25.13
✗Buffett-216.3% margin vs $79.49
Lynch fair value$4.39
✗Lynch-1710.7% margin vs $79.49
Greenblatt fair value$31.09
✗Greenblatt-155.7% margin vs $79.49
Dreman fair value$29.38
✗Dreman-170.6% margin vs $79.49
Munger fair value$21.31
✗Munger-273.0% margin vs $79.49
Pabrai fair value$15.13
✗Pabrai-425.4% margin vs $79.49
Akre fair value$45.80
✗Akre-73.6% margin vs $79.49
Marks fair value$26.95
✗Marks-195.0% margin vs $79.49
Ackman fair value$15.14
✗Ackman-425.0% margin vs $79.49
Templeton fair value$42.60
✗Templeton-86.6% margin vs $79.49
Profitability25% pass✓ 18✗ 17▾
12 of 16 flag BHP's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +9 more
Net income / market capitalization+4.46%; #1850/6340 (top 29.2%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive EPS (10 years)9/11 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)9/11 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)31.3%
✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)38.0% (latest)
✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$5.2B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)0.96
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)18.12
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR2.5%
✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE18.9%
✓Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value9.0%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=9.0%, ROC=25.5%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets8.29%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY7.71% -> 8.29% (delta: +0.58%)
✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=17.18%, ROA=8.29%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue35.8%
✓Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity18.9%
✓Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/E=44.8x, P/B=8.5x
✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity21.9% (3-yr avg)
✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value-170.6% (IV=$29.38 vs Price=$79.49)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency9/10 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue38.0%
✓Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity18.9%
✓Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR2.5% CAGR over 5 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend42.6% (2022) -> 38.0% (2024)
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue flat/down, operating margin 42.6% -> 38.0%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Gross profit / total assets
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity+18.92%; #845/5226 (top 16.2%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0925; #3376/5884 (top 57.4%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR2.5% over 5 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years9/10 years positive
✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Verdicts33% pass✓ 4✗ 8▾
Split decision: 8 FAIL · 5 NEUTRAL · 3 PASS
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)•BuffettNEUTRAL (6/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)✓GreenblattRank #589✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 5)•DremanNEUTRAL (7/11)•MungerNEUTRAL (3/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (2/6)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)•AckmanNEUTRAL (6/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (3/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #547/963 (Top 56.8%))
Growth38% pass✓ 6✗ 7▾
5 of 8 flag BHP's growth — Graham, Lynch, Ackman +2 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)18.12
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR2.5%
✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -5.0% vs Rev: -7.9%
✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction$-1.20 (2015) -> $1.77 (2024)
✓DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR6.1% CAGR over 8 years
✓Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency9/10 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth-7.9%
✗Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth
✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR2.5% CAGR over 5 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendrevenue flat/down, operating margin 42.6% -> 38.0%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR5.7%
✗SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR2.5% over 5 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Debt & Leverage50% pass✓ 8✗ 7▾
6 of 12 pass — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +3 more object
Debt Levels0.45
✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
LT Debt vs Net Current Assets
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.45, IC: 11.0x
✓BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity0.45
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%
✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.46
✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.45
✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=11.0x, D/EBITDA=0.9x
✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.45
✓Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.4520; #2370/4210 (top 56.3%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Cash Flow50% pass✓ 6✗ 6▾
5 of 10 pass — Lynch, Dreman, Pabrai +2 more object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$5.2B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$9.3B
✗LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$18.7B
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=17.18%, ROA=8.29%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)21.6x
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=44.8x, FCF Yield=4.6%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive10/10 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap2.3%
✗Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share43.4x
✗Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency10/10 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$9.3B
✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+4.60%; #1657/4519 (top 36.7%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Efficiency50% pass✓ 6✗ 5▾
4 of 8 pass — Graham, Piotroski, Dreman +1 more object
Current Ratio1.46
✗Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)32.9%
✓Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC+22.9%
✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)25.5%
✓Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY1.70 -> 1.46
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.54x -> 0.47x
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.46
✗Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital22.2%
✓Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2022: ROIC=28.4%; FY2023: ROIC=22.2%; FY2024: ROIC=22.2%
✓AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC2.1% (RR=10% x ROIC=22.2%)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)5/5 years above 12% (latest 22.2%)
✓SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2024. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Non-Metallic Mining

SIC Sector: Metal Mining

Size: Mega Cap($202.0B)

Revenue: $51.3B-7.9% YoY

Net Income: $9.0B+14.2% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin38.0%

Return on Equity18.9%

Debt / Equity0.45

Current Ratio1.46

EPS (Diluted)$1.77+14.1% 1y

Shares Retired−0.1% / −0.2% 2y

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Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2024

Issued 0.1% of shares last year, 0.2% issued over two.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: $8.2B

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY21

173.2% = 173.4% + −0.0%

FY22

−58.2% = −58.2% + −0.0%

FY23

−38.9% = −38.9% + −0.1%

FY24

14.1% = 14.2% + −0.1%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2024 Sources 20-F · 2025-08-22	FY 2023 Sources 20-F · 2024-08-30	FY 2022 Sources 20-F · 2023-09-05	FY 2021 Sources 20-F · 2022-09-06	FY 2020 Sources 20-F · 2021-09-21
Market Cap	$202.0Bcurrent	$283.1Best.	$306.2Best.	$221.7Best.	$124.1Best.
Revenue	$51.3B↓8%	$55.7B↑3%	$53.8B↓17%	$65.1B↑14%	$56.9B
Operating Income	$19.5B↑11%	$17.5B↓24%	$22.9B↓33%	$34.1B↑34%	$25.5B
Net Income	$9.0B↑14%	$7.9B↓39%	$12.9B↓58%	$30.9B↑173%	$11.3B
EPS (Diluted)	$1.77↑14%	$1.55↓39%	$2.55↓58%	$6.09↑173%	$2.23
Gross Margin	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Margin	38.0%↑21%	31.5%↓26%	42.6%↓19%	52.4%↑17%	44.8%
ROE	18.9%↑7%	17.6%↓39%	29.0%↓58%	68.7%↑212%	22.1%
Total Debt	$21.5B↑22%	$17.6B↓9%	$19.3B↑40%	$13.9B↓19%	$17.1B
Shareholders' Equity	$47.7B↑6%	$44.8B↑1%	$44.5B↓1%	$45.0B↓12%	$51.3B
Current Ratio	1.46↓14%	1.70↑39%	1.23↓28%	1.69↑4%	1.63
Debt / Equity	0.45↑15%	0.39↓10%	0.43↑41%	0.31↓8%	0.33
Operating Cash Flow	$18.7B↓10%	$20.7B↑11%	$18.7B↓42%	$32.2B↑18%	$27.2B
Free Cash Flow	$9.3B↓22%	$11.8B↓1%	$12.0B↓55%	$26.3B↑22%	$21.6B

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Non-Metallic Mining

BHP vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$51.3BTop 25%

Net Income$9.0BTop 25%

ROE18.9%Top 25%

D/E0.45Median

Op. Margin38.0%Top 25%

Curr. Ratio1.46Bottom 25%

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski	Dreman
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/SCCO	$140.0B	$164.08	$13.4B	$4.3B	39.4%	0.61	52.2%	3.89	4/9	5/9	4/7	1/3	F-Score 7	5/11
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INCFCX	$85.0B	$59.24	$25.9B	$4.2B	22.0%	0.50	25.2%	2.29	2/9	5/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 5	7/11
Vale S.A.VALE	$47.7B	$11.22	$38.4B	$2.4B	7.0%	0.02	15.4%	1.15	1/9	4/9	2/7	1/3	F-Score 3	4/11
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INCMLM	$36.5B	$513.61	$6.2B	$1.1B	11.3%	0.53	23.4%	3.57	4/9	3/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 8	7/11
Vulcan Materials COVMC	$35.8B	$278.63	$7.9B	$1.1B	12.6%	0.51	20.4%	2.69	2/9	2/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 9	5/11
CAMECO CORPCCJ	$30.8B	$70.73	$2.5B	$430.5M	8.5%	0.14	17.8%	2.47	3/9	3/9	5/7	0/3	F-Score 8	6/11
TECK RESOURCES LTDTECK	$29.6B	$60.19	$7.9B	$1.0B	5.6%	0.16	20.9%	2.54	3/9	2/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 8	4/11
HECLA MINING CO/DE/HL	$8.8B	$13.10	$1.4B	$321.7M	12.4%	0.10	36.2%	2.72	3/9	2/9	5/7	0/3	F-Score 8	5/11