Calumet, Inc. /DE

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Profitability0% pass✓ 4✗ 31▾

  No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

  Positive EPS (10 years)1/5 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)1/5 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)2.6% (latest)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$62.7M

  ✓BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROEN/A (negative equity)

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value3.6%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=3.6%, ROC=15.3%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets-1.26%

  ✗PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-8.05% -> -1.26% (delta: +6.79%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=4.05%, ROA=-1.26%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY5.5% -> 5.9%

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-5.7%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of Safety

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency1/4 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue3.4%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend6.4% (2023) -> 2.6% (2025)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 10.8% -> 5.9%, operating margin 6.4% -> 2.6%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization-6.41%; #3973/6340 (top 62.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+15.73%; #2381/3702 (top 64.3%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0410; #2314/5884 (top 39.3%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Debt & Leverage0% pass✗ 15▾

  All 12 investors flag CLMT's debt & leverage

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $2.2B vs NCA $73.9M

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: N/A (negative equity), IC: 0.9x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / EquityN/A (negative equity)

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-1.9B

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change74.86% -> 77.25%

  ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.06

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt LevelsN/A (non-positive equity)

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=0.9x, D/EBITDA=6.6x

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity

  ✗Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation0% pass✗ 28▾

  All 13 investors flag CLMT's valuation

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value3.6%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=3.6%, ROC=15.3%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)27.3x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per ShareN/A (negative BVPS)

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=2.1%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=1.9%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical Average

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share52.6x

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low324% of trailing low ($10.60)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization-6.41%; #3973/6340 (top 62.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization-0.2882; #5869/6449 (top 91.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per ShareN/A (non-positive TBVPS)

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+1.7197; #1208/5247 (top 23.0%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+8.77%; #901/4519 (top 19.9%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+1.93%; #2442/6202 (top 39.4%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Growth0% pass✓ 1✗ 12▾

  No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 18.1% vs Rev: 28.4%

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction$-2.14 (2022) -> $-0.39 (2025)

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency1/4 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth-1.2%

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/3 years with positive EPS growth

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 10.8% -> 5.9%, operating margin 6.4% -> 2.6%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Verdicts0% pass✗ 14▾

  Split decision: 13 FAIL · 3 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)✗GreenblattRank #1465•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 6)✗DremanFAIL (1/11)✗MungerFAIL (0/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (0/5)✗AckmanFAIL (2/9)✗TempletonFAIL (1/8)✗SleepFAIL (1/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (0/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Valuation models0% pass✗ 4▾

  CLMT overvalued: all 4 models price fair value below $34.30 (median $7.79)

  Buffett fair value$8.54

  ✗Buffett-301.6% margin vs $34.30

  Greenblatt fair value$11.65

  ✗Greenblatt-194.4% margin vs $34.30

  Munger fair value$6.31

  ✗Munger-443.6% margin vs $34.30

  Ackman fair value$7.04

  ✗Ackman-387.2% margin vs $34.30
• Efficiency13% pass✓ 2✗ 9▾

  7 of 8 flag CLMT's efficiency — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +4 more

  Current Ratio1.06

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)7.3%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-2.7%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)15.3%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY0.89 -> 1.02

  ✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY1.52x -> 1.54x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.06

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital10.8%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=15.1%; FY2024: ROIC=0.5%; FY2025: ROIC=5.7%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)1/3 years above 12% (latest 5.7%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Cash Flow40% pass✓ 6✗ 6▾

  6 of 10 flag CLMT's cash flow — Dreman, Pabrai, Marks +3 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$62.7M

  ✓BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$265.1M

  ✓LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$108.9M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=4.05%, ROA=-1.26%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)27.3x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=1.9%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive1/4 years FCF positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap8.9%

  ✓Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share52.6x

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency2/4 years positive

  ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$265.1M

  ✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+8.77%; #901/4519 (top 19.9%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section