ECOPETROL S.A.

Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas.

About the company

Country: ColombiaPrice: $15.43Market Cap: $31.7B

Investment snapshot

47%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

4 / 5

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$1.63

-89.4% vs price

Models with upside

0 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

8 of 10 pass — Dreman and Ackman object

Key risk

Split decision: 5 FAIL · 5 PASS · 4 NEUTRAL · 2 BUY

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	BUY · Rank #346 (Top 11.2%)	PASS	NEUTRAL	PASS	NEUTRAL	PASS	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	NEUTRAL	BUY	FAIL	NEUTRAL	BUY
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)			N/A		N/A								N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	-1673.6%	-2515.3%	N/A	-656.4%	N/A	-738.6%	-269.1%	-2471.7%	-537.6%	-1412.7%	-171.7%	-986.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-23 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Cash Flow80% pass✓ 9✗ 3▾
8 of 10 pass — Dreman and Ackman object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$4.4B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$8.1B
✓LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$10.2B
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=15.13%, ROA=4.64%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)61.9x
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=201.8x, FCF Yield=25.5%
✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive10/10 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap1.3%
✗Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share78.5x
✗Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency10/10 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$8.1B
✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+25.49%; #217/4519 (top 4.8%)
✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Efficiency63% pass✓ 7✗ 4▾
5 of 8 pass — Graham, Piotroski and Akre object
Current Ratio1.53
✗Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)15.4%
✓Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC+5.4%
✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)27.5%
✓Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY1.58 -> 1.53
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.51x -> 0.45x
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.53
✓Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital15.2%
✓Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2022: ROIC=23.6%; FY2023: ROIC=18.2%; FY2024: ROIC=15.2%
✓AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC0.0% (RR=0% x ROIC=15.2%)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)4/5 years above 12% (latest 15.2%)
✓SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Verdicts62% pass✓ 8✗ 5▾
Split decision: 5 FAIL · 5 PASS · 4 NEUTRAL · 2 BUY
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✓BuffettPASS (5/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)✓GreenblattRank #346✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)•DremanNEUTRAL (7/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)•PabraiNEUTRAL (2/3)✓AkrePASS (3/6)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)✓AckmanPASS (5/9)✗TempletonFAIL (2/8)•SleepNEUTRAL (4/6)✓AsnessBUY (Rank #276/2370 (Top 11.6%))✗NeffFAIL (3/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✓OshaughnessyBUY (Rank #18/963 (Top 1.9%))

Where It Falls Short

Valuation models0% pass✗ 10▾
EC overvalued: all 10 models price fair value below $15.43 (median $1.63)
Graham fair value$0.87
✗Graham-1673.6% margin vs $15.43
Buffett fair value$0.59
✗Buffett-2515.3% margin vs $15.43
Greenblatt fair value$2.04
✗Greenblatt-656.4% margin vs $15.43
Dreman fair value$1.84
✗Dreman-738.6% margin vs $15.43
Munger fair value$4.18
✗Munger-269.1% margin vs $15.43
Pabrai fair value$0.60
✗Pabrai-2471.7% margin vs $15.43
Akre fair value$2.42
✗Akre-537.6% margin vs $15.43
Marks fair value$1.02
✗Marks-1412.7% margin vs $15.43
Ackman fair value$5.68
✗Ackman-171.7% margin vs $15.43
Templeton fair value$1.42
✗Templeton-986.6% margin vs $15.43
Debt & Leverage8% pass✓ 3✗ 12▾
11 of 12 flag EC's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more
LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $24.7B vs NCA $4.8B
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 1.50, IC: 3.7x
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity1.50
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$-24.7B
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change32.22% -> 36.44%
✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.53
✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity1.50
✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels1.50
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=3.7x, D/EBITDA=2.2x
✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity1.50
✗Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-1.5023; #3592/4210 (top 85.3%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Valuation15% pass✓ 6✗ 22▾
11 of 13 flag EC's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +8 more
Net income / market capitalization+9.91%; #666/6340 (top 10.5%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Price / 3-yr avg EPS126.1x
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio35.0x
✗Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B4,412.1
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 201.8x (growth N/A)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value14.8%
✓Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=14.8%, ROC=27.5%
✓GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS201.8x
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)61.9x
✗Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share35.0x
✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=201.8x, OE Yield=0.7%
✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=201.8x, FCF Yield=25.5%
✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=201.8x, P/B=35.0x
✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value-740.8% (IV=$1.84 vs Price=$15.43)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share78.5x
✗Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low190% of trailing low ($8.11)
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.5717; #2605/6449 (top 40.4%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS201.8x
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E-0.02
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share47.92x
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change+9.4%
✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.9546; #1816/5247 (top 34.6%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+25.49%; #217/4519 (top 4.8%)
✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+9.43%; #1884/6202 (top 30.4%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Growth25% pass✓ 4✗ 9▾
6 of 8 flag EC's growth — Graham, Lynch, Ackman +3 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 201.8x (growth N/A)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR-5.6%
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -13.4% vs Rev: -18.0%
✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction$-0.06 (2015) -> $0.08 (2024)
✓DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR18.2% CAGR over 8 years
✓Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency9/10 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth12.1%
✓Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR-5.6% CAGR over 5 years
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 44.0% -> 35.1%, operating margin 37.7% -> 28.8%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR6.8%
✗SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-5.6% over 5 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Profitability31% pass✓ 17✗ 18▾
11 of 16 flag EC's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more
Net income / market capitalization+9.91%; #666/6340 (top 10.5%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive EPS (10 years)9/11 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)9/11 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)21.6%
✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)28.8% (latest)
✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$4.4B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)0.87
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 201.8x (growth N/A)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR-5.6%
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE17.3%
✓Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value14.8%
✓Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=14.8%, ROC=27.5%
✓GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets4.64%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY7.52% -> 4.64% (delta: -2.88%)
✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=15.13%, ROA=4.64%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY38.4% -> 35.1%
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue23.0%
✓Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity17.3%
✓Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/E=201.8x, P/B=35.0x
✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity27.3% (3-yr avg)
✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value-740.8% (IV=$1.84 vs Price=$15.43)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency9/10 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue28.8%
✓Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity17.3%
✓Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR-5.6% CAGR over 5 years
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend37.7% (2022) -> 28.8% (2024)
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 44.0% -> 35.1%, operating margin 37.7% -> 28.8%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Gross profit / total assets+15.71%; #2382/3702 (top 64.3%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity+17.33%; #970/5226 (top 18.6%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0308; #1946/5884 (top 33.1%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-5.6% over 5 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years9/10 years positive
✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2024. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Petroleum and Natural Gas

SIC Sector: Oil & Gas Extraction

Size: Large Cap($31.7B)

Revenue: $30.3B-18.0% YoY

Net Income: $3.1B-42.1% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin28.8%

Return on Equity17.3%

Debt / Equity1.50

Current Ratio1.53

EPS (Diluted)$0.08−42.1% 1y

Shares Retired0.0% / 0.0% 2y

Similar Companies

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2024

Retired 0.0% of shares last year, 0.0% over two.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: $3.5B

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY21

729.2% = 729.2% + −0.0%

FY22

69.5% = 69.5% + 0.0%

FY23

−16.7% = −16.7% + −0.0%

FY24

−42.1% = −42.1% + −0.0%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2024 Sources 20-F · 2025-04-23	FY 2023 Sources 20-F · 2024-04-18	FY 2022 Sources 20-F · 2023-03-29	FY 2021 Sources 20-F · 2022-04-26	FY 2020 Sources 20-F · 2021-04-09
Market Cap	$31.7Bcurrent	$392.2Best.	$301.6Best.	$333.9Best.	$255.9Best.
Revenue	$30.3B↓18%	$36.9B↑12%	$32.9B↑46%	$22.6B↑54%	$14.7B
Operating Income	$8.7B↓19%	$10.8B↓13%	$12.4B↑70%	$7.3B↑248%	$2.1B
Net Income	$3.1B↓42%	$5.4B↓17%	$6.5B↑69%	$3.8B↑729%	$463.9M
EPS (Diluted)	$0.08↓42%	$0.13↓17%	$0.16↑69%	$0.09↑729%	$0.01
Gross Margin	35.1%↓9%	38.4%↓13%	44.0%↑11%	39.5%↑57%	25.2%
Operating Margin	28.8%↓1%	29.2%↓23%	37.7%↑17%	32.3%↑126%	14.3%
ROE	17.3%↓38%	27.8%↓24%	36.7%↑61%	22.8%↑619%	3.2%
Total Debt	$27.2B	$27.3B↑15%	$23.7B↑2%	$23.4B↑71%	$13.7B
Shareholders' Equity	$18.1B↓7%	$19.5B↑10%	$17.8B↑6%	$16.8B↑15%	$14.6B
Current Ratio	1.53↓3%	1.58↑16%	1.36↓20%	1.71↑37%	1.25
Debt / Equity	1.50↑7%	1.40↑5%	1.34↓4%	1.39↑48%	0.94
Operating Cash Flow	$10.2B↑101%	$5.1B↓32%	$7.5B↑35%	$5.5B↑106%	$2.7B
Free Cash Flow	$8.1B↑200%	$2.7B↓52%	$5.7B↑40%	$4.0B↑232%	$1.2B

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Petroleum and Natural Gas

EC vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$30.3BMedian

Net Income$3.1BMedian

ROE17.3%Top 25%

D/E1.50Bottom 25%

Op. Margin28.8%Top 25%

Curr. Ratio1.53Top 25%

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski	Dreman
TotalEnergies SETTE	$199.0B	$90.74	$201.2B	$13.1B	11.4%	0.49	—	0.97	4/9	4/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 4	6/11
CONOCOPHILLIPSCOP	$168.2B	$142.28	$58.9B	$8.0B	12.4%	0.36	—	1.30	2/9	3/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 7	6/11
BP PLCBP	$117.7B	$45.70	$192.5B	$55.0M	0.1%	1.09	6.6%	1.26	1/9	3/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 5	2/11
SUNCOR ENERGY INCSU	$80.5B	$69.92	$38.2B	$4.3B	13.1%	0.22	—	1.39	2/9	2/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 4	6/11
CENOVUS ENERGY INC.CVE	$52.6B	$29.08	$36.3B	$2.9B	12.4%	0.35	—	1.57	1/9	1/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 5	5/11
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTDWDS	$40.1B	$21.08	$13.0B	$2.7B	7.6%	0.33	30.0%	1.59	3/9	4/9	0/7	0/3	F-Score 4	7/11
EXPAND ENERGY CorpEXE	$20.4B	$88.53	$12.1B	$1.8B	9.8%	0.27	20.4%	1.01	2/9	5/9	3/7	1/3	F-Score 7	7/11
YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMAYPF	$14.9B	$37.90	$18.4B	$826.0M	-7.6%	0.98	9.4%	0.87	2/9	1/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 4	3/11