HCI Group, Inc.
HCIInvestment snapshot
Positive
8
BUY / PASS
Neutral / negative
6 / 2
NEUTRAL / FAIL
Median fair value
$293.00
+53.1% vs price
Models with upside
8 / 16
Positive margin of safety
Strongest signal
All 10 investors pass HCI's cash flow
Key risk
3 of 4 flag HCI's efficiency — Munger, Akre and Sleep
Framework analysis
| Verdict | Meaning |
|---|---|
| BUY | Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met. |
| PASS | The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state. |
| NEUTRAL | Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position. |
| FAIL | The company does not clear the framework's requirements. |
| Ranked | Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL. |
Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.
| Metric | Graham Defensive Value | Buffett Quality Compounder | Lynch GARP | Piotroski F-Score | Dreman Contrarian Value | Munger Quality Focus | Pabrai Dhandho Framework | Akre Three-Legged Stool | Marks Risk-Aware Value | Ackman Activist Value | Templeton Global Bargain Hunter | Sleep Scale Economies Shared | Asness Systematic Factors | Neff Low-P/E Total Return | Schloss Asset-Value Discipline | O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | PASS | FAIL | BUY | BUY | NEUTRAL | BUY | NEUTRAL | PASS | NEUTRAL | BUY | NEUTRAL | PASS | NEUTRAL | PASS | NEUTRAL | FAIL |
| Score | ||||||||||||||||
| Analysis | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… | Checking access… |
| Intrinsic Value (annual) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||
| Margin of Safety | +5.4% | +66.7% | +66.3% | N/A | +2.4% | +76.4% | +49.6% | +7.2% | -186.6% | +84.3% | -302.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Financial Basis | TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 vs 2025-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-26 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-02-26 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-02-26 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14 |
Where It Passes
- Cash Flow100% pass✓ 12▾
All 10 investors pass HCI's cash flow
Free Cash Flow Proxy$302.0M✓BuffettPositive and growingFCF Positive and Growing$457.9M✓LynchPositive and growingOperating Cash Flow$444.4M✓PiotroskiCFO > 0(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=17.57%, ROA=11.82%✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROAPrice / (CFO / Shares)5.6x✓Dreman< 8xP/E or FCF YieldP/E=8.4x, FCF Yield=18.5%✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%FCF Positive15/16 years FCF positive✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap18.4%✓Ackman>= 4%Price / FCF per Share5.6x✓Ackman<= 25Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency17/18 years positive✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available yearsOperating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$457.9M✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+19.25%; #305/4519 (top 6.7%)✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section - Debt & Leverage82% pass✓ 11✗ 2▾
9 of 11 pass — Lynch and Schloss object
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.03, IC: 109.7x✓BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5xTotal Debt / Equity0.03✓Lynch< 0.33Cash - Long-term Debt✗LynchPositive preferredLT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%✓PiotroskiDecreased YoYTotal Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.03✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00xDebt Levels0.03✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=109.7x, D/EBITDA=0.1x✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4xTotal Debt / Shareholders Equity0.03✓Ackman<= 1.0Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.0279; #829/4210 (top 19.7%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionCurrent Assets / Current Liabilities✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff) - Verdicts80% pass✓ 8✗ 2▾
Split decision: 6 NEUTRAL · 4 PASS · 4 BUY · 2 FAIL
Overall verdict✓GrahamPASS (3/7)✗BuffettFAIL (2/7)✓LynchBUY (5/6)✓PiotroskiBUY (F-Score 6)•DremanNEUTRAL (6/10)✓MungerBUY (3/4)•PabraiNEUTRAL (2/3)✓AkrePASS (3/6)•MarksNEUTRAL (4/5)✓AckmanBUY (8/9)•TempletonNEUTRAL (5/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✓NeffPASS (5/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #469/963 (Top 48.7%)) - Valuation models80% pass✓ 8✗ 2▾
Models split on HCI at $191.37 — fair values range $47.55–$1215.52
Graham fair value$202.39✓Graham+5.4% margin vs $191.37Buffett fair value$574.50✓Buffett+66.7% margin vs $191.37Lynch fair value$568.00✓Lynch+66.3% margin vs $191.37Dreman fair value$196.15✓Dreman+2.4% margin vs $191.37Munger fair value$809.33✓Munger+76.4% margin vs $191.37Pabrai fair value$379.76✓Pabrai+49.6% margin vs $191.37Akre fair value$206.23✓Akre+7.2% margin vs $191.37Marks fair value$66.77✗Marks-186.6% margin vs $191.37Ackman fair value$1215.52✓Ackman+84.3% margin vs $191.37Templeton fair value$47.55✗Templeton-302.5% margin vs $191.37
Where It Falls Short
- Efficiency25% pass✓ 1✗ 4▾
3 of 4 flag HCI's efficiency — Munger, Akre and Sleep
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.34x -> 0.36x✓PiotroskiImproved YoYReturn on Invested Capital✗Munger> 15%ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in eachReinvestment Rate x ROIC✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%ROIC (5-year)✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years - Valuation42% pass✓ 15✗ 11▾
7 of 12 flag HCI's valuation — Graham, Dreman, Marks +4 more
Price / 3-yr avg EPS14.6x✓Graham<= 15xPrice-to-Book Ratio2.4x✗Graham<= 1.5xP/E x P/B34.90✗Graham<= 22.5Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.19✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)Price / EPS8.4x✓Dreman< 12x✓Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)Price / (CFO / Shares)5.6x✓Dreman< 8xPrice / Book Value per Share2.4x✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=8.4x, OE Yield=12.1%✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%P/E or FCF YieldP/E=8.4x, FCF Yield=18.5%✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=8.4x, P/B=2.4x✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0Discount to Intrinsic Value2.4% (IV=$196.15 vs Price=$191.37)✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic valuePrice / FCF per Share5.6x✓Ackman<= 25Price vs. Trailing Low157% of trailing low ($121.93)✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)Net income / market capitalization+13.80%; #412/6340 (top 6.5%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionPositive book equity / market capitalization+0.4714; #2993/6449 (top 46.4%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionPrice / Diluted EPS8.4x✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E5.49✓Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)Price / Tangible Book Value per Share2.39x✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)Book Value per Share Change+210.2%✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)Revenue / market capitalization+0.4123; #2888/5247 (top 55.0%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+19.25%; #305/4519 (top 6.7%)✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionTrailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+24.21%; #1191/6202 (top 19.2%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section - Profitability47% pass✓ 18✗ 14▾
8 of 15 flag HCI's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Marks +5 more
Positive EPS (10 years)16/19 years positive✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 yearsEPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)✗Graham>= 33% growthNet Income Positive (10+ years)16/19 years positive✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ yearsROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)8.4%✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)Operating Margin (10-yr trend)✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 yearsFree Cash Flow Proxy$302.0M✓BuffettPositive and growingEarnings Variance (10-yr CoV)✗BuffettCoV < 0.3Retained Earnings Effectiveness✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value createdBasic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.19✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)3-5 Year EPS CAGR45.5%✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to passROE29.3%✓Lynch> 15%Net Income / Total Assets11.82%✓PiotroskiROA > 0ROA Change YoY4.93% -> 11.82% (delta: +6.89%)✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=17.57%, ROA=11.82%✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROAPre-Tax Income / Revenue49.6%✓Dreman>= 8%Net Income / Shareholders' Equity29.3%✓Dreman> 12%Margin of SafetyP/E=8.4x, P/B=2.4x✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15Return on Equity25.8% (3-yr avg)✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)Discount to Intrinsic Value2.4% (IV=$196.15 vs Price=$191.37)✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic valuePositive Net Income Frequency16/18 years positive✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 yearsOperating Income / Revenue✗Ackman>= 15%Net Income / Shareholders Equity29.3%✓Ackman>= 15%5-Year EPS CAGR45.5% CAGR over 5 years✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)Operating Margin Trend✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 yearsRevenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holdingNet income / market capitalization+13.80%; #412/6340 (top 6.5%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✓OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionGross profit / total assets✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionNet income / positive book equity+29.28%; #460/5226 (top 8.8%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionNegative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0507; #2602/5884 (top 44.2%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR45.5% over 5 years✗Neff7%-20% annualizedPositive Diluted-EPS Years8/10 years positive✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule) - Growth50% pass✓ 7✗ 5▾
4 of 8 pass — Graham, Dreman, Sleep +1 more object
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)✗Graham>= 33% growthBasic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.19✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)3-5 Year EPS CAGR45.5%✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to passEPS Growth Direction✗DremanPositive over recent yearsEPS CAGR✗Dreman> 5% annualizedPositive Net Income Frequency16/18 years positive✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years3yr Median Revenue Growth20.1%✓Ackman>= 5%Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years5-Year EPS CAGR45.5% CAGR over 5 years✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding5-year Revenue CAGR23.7%✓SleepCAGR > 7%3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR45.5% over 5 years✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Business & financials
Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.
Company Profile
Financial Snapshot
Insurers file unclassified balance sheets with no inventory or current accounts, so those criteria are omitted rather than failed for missing data. Return-on-invested-capital tests are omitted too: float funds the balance sheet but never appears in invested capital, and the portfolio it is invested in would be subtracted as spare cash. Debt tests are kept — an insurer’s borrowings are real leverage on top of underwriting.
Shareholder Return
Fiscal 2025
Issued 20.7% of shares last year, 33.4% issued over two.
- Buybacks
- $1.5M
- Dividends
- $19.3M
What drove EPS
A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.
The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.
Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.
Company Financials
Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years
TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.
The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.
| Metric | TTM · 2026-09-30 2025-10-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter valuesDerived from cumulative filings: net income, operating cash flow, depreciation amortization, capex, buybacks, re sale gains, dividends paid. | Q3 FY 2026 2026-07-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter valuesDerived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, capex, dividends paid, buybacks, re sale gains. | Q2 FY 2026 2026-04-01 – 2026-06-30 Sources · derived quarter valuesDerived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, capex, dividends paid, buybacks, re sale gains. | Q1 FY 2026 2026-01-01 – 2026-03-31 Sources | FY 2025Sources
| FY 2024Sources
| FY 2023Sources
| FY 2022Sources
| FY 2021Sources
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.4Bcurrent | -- | -- | -- | $2.1Best. | $1.3Best. | $846.0Mest. | $407.1Mest. | $641.9Mest. |
| Revenue | $980.7M↑20% | $244.9M↑13% | $246.7M↑11% | $242.9M↑12% | $900.9M↑20% | $750.1M↑36% | $550.7M↑10% | $499.6M↑22% | $407.9M |
| Operating Income | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Net Income | $328.4M↑61% | $83.5M↑27% | $73.8M↑12% | $73.4M↑5% | $299.0M↑172% | $110.0M↑39% | $79.0M↑235% | -$58.5M↓3253% | $1.9M |
| EPS (Diluted) | -- | $6.45↑32% | $5.60↑8% | $5.45↑2% | $22.72↑156% | $8.89↑17% | $7.62↑222% | $-6.24↓3071% | $0.21 |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ROE | 29.3%↑18% | — | — | — | 28.7%↑18% | 24.3% | 24.3%↑168% | -36.0%↓6370% | 0.6% |
| Total Debt | $31.3M↓3% | $31.3M↓3% | $31.5M↑102% | $31.7M↓83% | $31.9M↓83% | $185.3M↓11% | $208.5M↓2% | $211.7M↑365% | $45.5M |
| Shareholders' Equity | $1.1B↑36% | $1.1B↑36% | $1.1B↑42% | $1.1B↑108% | $1.0B↑130% | $453.3M↑40% | $324.8M↑100% | $162.6M↓50% | $323.4M |
| Current Ratio | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Debt / Equity | 0.03↓29% | 0.03↓29% | 0.03↑42% | 0.03↓92% | 0.03↓93% | 0.41↓36% | 0.64↓51% | 1.30↑825% | 0.14 |
| Operating Cash Flow | $459.6M↑13% | $74.9M↑181% | $125.1M↓14% | $148.8M↓8% | $444.4M↑34% | $331.8M↑44% | $230.7M↑1922250% | -$12.0K↓100% | $96.5M |
| Free Cash Flow | $457.9M↑13% | $74.5M↑188% | $124.8M↓14% | $148.5M↓7% | $440.8M↑34% | $327.8M↑46% | $224.2M↑3628% | -$6.4M↓107% | $93.2M |
Score history
Historical Score Timeline
Industry peers
Industry Peers
Similar companies in Insurance
HCI vs Peers — Financial Grading
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Revenue | Net Income | ROE | D/E | Op. Margin | Curr. Ratio | Graham | Buffett | Lynch | Piotroski | Dreman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH | $365.1B | $407.46 | $447.6B | $12.1B | 12.0% | 0.78 | 4.2% | 0.79 | 3/7 | 4/7 | 2/6 | F-Score 6 | 3/10 |
| PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/PGR | $136.6B | $235.78 | $87.7B | $11.3B | 37.3% | 0.23 | — | — | 2/7 | 2/7 | 4/6 | F-Score 6 | 8/10 |
| MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.MRSH | $98.8B | $207.78 | $27.0B | $4.2B | 27.2% | 1.28 | 23.1% | 1.10 | 3/7 | 3/7 | 2/6 | F-Score 6 | 5/10 |
| CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTDCILJF | $85.1B | $3.01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5/7 | 1/7 | 3/6 | F-Score 5 | 5/10 |
| Aon plcAON | $71.8B | $338.31 | $17.2B | $3.7B | 39.5% | 1.63 | 25.3% | 1.11 | 2/7 | 4/7 | 3/6 | F-Score 6 | 3/10 |
| HUMANA INCHUM | $54.0B | $450.00 | $129.7B | $1.2B | 6.7% | 0.70 | 2.1% | 2.00 | 3/7 | 2/7 | 1/6 | F-Score 4 | 4/10 |
| SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INCSLF | $40.5B | $72.93 | $30.6B | $2.6B | 14.5% | 0.33 | — | — | 3/7 | 3/7 | 2/6 | F-Score 6 | 6/10 |
| HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.HIG | $36.8B | $137.48 | $28.4B | $3.8B | 20.2% | 0.23 | — | — | 3/7 | 3/7 | 4/6 | F-Score 7 | 8/10 |