HCW Biologics Inc.

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Profitability0% pass✓ 1✗ 34▾

  No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

  Positive EPS (10 years)0/7 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)0/7 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-134.6%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-24270.7% (latest)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-6.9M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)N/A (negative mean EPS)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE-75.2%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise ValueN/A (EV <= 0)

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=N/A (EV <= 0), ROC=-8773.2%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets-32.46%

  ✗PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-99.30% -> -32.46% (delta: +66.83%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-54.62%, ROA=-32.46%

  ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY37.4% -> 20.0%

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-14677.1%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-75.2%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of Safety

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity-171.1% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency0/6 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue-115.3%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity-75.2%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend-905.0% (2023) -> -24270.7% (2025)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 19.7% -> 20.0%, operating margin -905.0% -> -24270.7%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization-322.86%; #5812/6340 (top 91.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+24.08%; #1786/3702 (top 48.2%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity-75.15%; #4444/5226 (top 85.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.3172; #4639/5884 (top 78.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years0/6 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Valuation0% pass✓ 2✗ 26▾

  No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise ValueN/A (EV <= 0)

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=N/A (EV <= 0), ROC=-8773.2%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation Reasonableness

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-774.6%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical Average

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low100% of trailing low ($0.77)

  ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization-322.86%; #5812/6340 (top 91.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+4.2961; #329/6449 (top 5.1%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+3.8547; #657/5247 (top 12.5%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-774.57%; #4387/4519 (top 97.1%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-64.65%; #5513/6202 (top 88.9%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Cash Flow0% pass✗ 12▾

  All 10 investors flag HCWB's cash flow

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-6.9M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$-13.4M

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$-13.4M

  ✗PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-54.62%, ROA=-32.46%

  ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-774.6%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive0/6 years FCF positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency0/6 years positive

  ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-13.4M

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-774.57%; #4387/4519 (top 97.1%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Growth0% pass✓ 1✗ 12▾

  No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction$-1.49 (2020) -> $-10.63 (2025)

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency0/6 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth-57.7%

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 19.7% -> 20.0%, operating margin -905.0% -> -24270.7%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR-57.9%

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Efficiency0% pass✗ 11▾

  All 8 investors flag HCWB's efficiency

  Current Ratio0.06

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)-372.0%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-382.0%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-8773.2%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY0.19 -> 0.11

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.08x -> 0.00x

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.06

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital-43.4%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-102.8%; FY2024: ROIC=-3829.3%; FY2025: ROIC=-376.1%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest -376.1%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Verdicts0% pass✗ 15▾

  Split decision: 15 FAIL · 1 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (0/9)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 2)✗DremanFAIL (0/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (0/5)✗AckmanFAIL (1/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (0/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #2173/2370 (Top 91.7%))✗NeffFAIL (0/6)✗SchlossFAIL (1/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Debt & Leverage25% pass✓ 5✗ 10▾

  9 of 12 flag HCWB's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +6 more

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.88

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $0.0M vs NCA $-18.8M

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.88, IC: -14.0x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity0.88

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$2.0M

  ✓LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change24.40% -> 0.00%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.06

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Debt Levels0.88

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-15.6x, D/EBITDA=0.0x (no debt)

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.88

  ✓Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.8834; #3083/4210 (top 73.2%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section