Kestrel Group Ltd

Kestrel Group Ltd engages in the reinsurance business. It operates through two segments: Program Services and Legacy Reinsurance. The company offers fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agencies, reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers in Bermuda. The company is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

About the company

Country: BermudaPrice: $3.36Market Cap: $29.4M

Investment snapshot

13%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

3 / 11

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$54.89

+1533.5% vs price

Models with upside

3 / 16

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

KG undervalued: all 3 models price fair value above $3.36 (median $54.89)

Key risk

No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	PASS	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL
Score
Analysis	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…
Intrinsic Value (annual)		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A			N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	+93.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	+96.6%	+76.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-13 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-13 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-13 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-13 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-13 Score computed: 2026-11-14	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-13 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Valuation models100% pass✓ 3▾
KG undervalued: all 3 models price fair value above $3.36 (median $54.89)
Graham fair value$54.89
✓Graham+93.9% margin vs $3.36
Pabrai fair value$98.87
✓Pabrai+96.6% margin vs $3.36
Akre fair value$14.46
✓Akre+76.8% margin vs $3.36

Where It Falls Short

Growth0% pass✓ 2✗ 10▾
No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 0.4x (growth N/A)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
EPS Growth Direction
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency1/2 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth785.1%
✓Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR785.1%
✓SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Efficiency0% pass✗ 5▾
All 4 investors flag KG's efficiency
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.70x -> 0.03x
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Return on Invested Capital
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Profitability7% pass✓ 3✗ 29▾
14 of 15 flag KG's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +11 more
Positive EPS (10 years)1/2 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)1/2 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)4.2%
✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy
✗BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 0.4x (growth N/A)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE-50.7%
✗Lynch> 15%
Net Income / Total Assets4.63%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY-23.43% -> 4.63% (delta: +28.06%)
✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-9.52%, ROA=4.63%
✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-150.6%
✗Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-50.7%
✗Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/E=0.4x, P/B=0.2x
✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity4.2% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency1/2 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity-50.7%
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Net income / market capitalization-169.03%; #5618/6340 (top 88.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Gross profit / total assets
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity-50.73%; #4211/5226 (top 80.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years
✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Debt & Leverage9% pass✓ 1✗ 12▾
10 of 11 flag KG's debt & leverage — Buffett, Lynch, Piotroski +7 more
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 1.36, IC: 5.4x
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity1.79
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$-148.5M
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 17.27%
✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity1.79
✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels1.79
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=5.4x, D/EBITDA=2.9x
✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity1.79
✗Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-1.7931; #3715/4210 (top 88.2%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Cash Flow10% pass✓ 1✗ 11▾
9 of 10 flag KG's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Piotroski +6 more
Free Cash Flow Proxy
✗BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing
✗LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$-96.1M
✗PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-9.52%, ROA=4.63%
✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=0.4x
✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive
✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap
✗Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share
✗Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency0/2 years positive
✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Verdicts15% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾
Split decision: 11 FAIL · 3 NEUTRAL · 2 PASS
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (1/7)✗BuffettFAIL (0/7)✗LynchFAIL (0/6)✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 2)✗DremanFAIL (3/10)✓MungerPASS (2/4)•PabraiNEUTRAL (2/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✗AckmanFAIL (1/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✗SleepFAIL (1/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (2/6)✗SchlossFAIL (2/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
Valuation25% pass✓ 13✗ 13▾
9 of 12 flag KG's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +6 more
Price / 3-yr avg EPS
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio0.2x
✓Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 0.4x (growth N/A)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
Price / EPS0.4x
✓Dreman< 12x✓Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
✗Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share0.2x
✓Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✓SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=0.4x, OE Yield=180.0%
✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=0.4x
✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=0.4x, P/B=0.2x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share
✗Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low100% of trailing low ($3.36)
✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Net income / market capitalization-169.03%; #5618/6340 (top 88.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive book equity / market capitalization+3.3319; #430/6449 (top 6.7%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS0.4x
✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share0.20x
✓SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change
✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+1.0849; #1674/5247 (top 31.9%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-65.43%; #5537/6202 (top 89.3%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Insurance

SIC Sector: Insurance Carriers

Size: Micro Cap($29.4M)

Revenue: $34.0M+785.1% YoY

Net Income: $46.7M+3719.3% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin--

Return on Equity36.4%

Debt / Equity1.36

Current Ratio--

EPS (Diluted)$8.08

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Sector-adjusted criteria: Insurer

Insurers file unclassified balance sheets with no inventory or current accounts, so those criteria are omitted rather than failed for missing data. Return-on-invested-capital tests are omitted too: float funds the balance sheet but never appears in invested capital, and the portfolio it is invested in would be subtracted as spare cash. Debt tests are kept — an insurer’s borrowings are real leverage on top of underwriting.

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Share retirement not available for this company.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: $40.0M

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.

Metric	TTM · 2026-09-30 2025-10-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-K · 2026-03-13 10-Q · 2026-05-08 10-Q · 2026-08-07 10-Q · 2026-11-06 Derived from cumulative filings: revenue, net income, pre tax income, operating cash flow, dividends paid, buybacks.	Q3 FY 2026 2026-07-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-Q · 2026-11-06 Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, dividends paid, buybacks.	Q2 FY 2026 2026-04-01 – 2026-06-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-Q · 2026-08-07 Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, buybacks.	Q1 FY 2026 2026-01-01 – 2026-03-31 Sources 10-Q · 2026-05-08	FY 2025 Sources 10-K · 2026-03-13	FY 2024 Sources 10-K · 2026-03-13
Market Cap	$29.4Mcurrent	--	--	--	$91.9Mest.	$55.5Mest.
Revenue	$31.9M	$4.8M↓73%	$6.7M↑20%	$10.2M	$34.0M↑785%	$3.8M
Operating Income	--	--	--	--	--	--
Net Income	-$49.6M	-$16.4M↓224%	-$8.1M↓112%	-$7.4M	$46.7M↑3719%	-$1.3M
EPS (Diluted)	--	$-2.09↓222%	$-1.03↓107%	$-0.96	$8.08↑1819%	$-0.47
Gross Margin	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Margin	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROE	-50.7%	—	—	—	36.4%↑230%	-28.0%
Total Debt	$175.4M	$175.4M↑1%	$175.0M↑1%	$174.7M	$174.4M	$0
Shareholders' Equity	$97.8M	$97.8M↓32%	$114.0M↓24%	$121.4M	$128.3M↑2685%	$4.6M
Current Ratio	—	—	—	—	—	—
Debt / Equity	1.79	1.79↑48%	1.54↑33%	1.44	1.36	0.00
Operating Cash Flow	-$105.0M	$1.6M↑117%	-$25.8M	-$15.1M	-$96.1M↓7488%	-$1.3M
Free Cash Flow	--	--	--	--	--	--

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Insurance

KG vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$34.0MBottom 25%

Net Income$46.7MBottom 25%

ROE36.4%Median

D/E1.36Bottom 25%

Op. Margin—

Curr. Ratio—

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Piotroski	Dreman
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH	$365.1B	$407.46	$447.6B	$12.1B	12.0%	0.78	4.2%	0.79	3/7	4/7	2/6	F-Score 6	3/10
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/PGR	$136.6B	$235.78	$87.7B	$11.3B	37.3%	0.23	—	—	2/7	2/7	4/6	F-Score 6	8/10
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.MRSH	$98.8B	$207.78	$27.0B	$4.2B	27.2%	1.28	23.1%	1.10	3/7	3/7	2/6	F-Score 6	5/10
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTDCILJF	$85.1B	$3.01	—	—	—	—	—	—	5/7	1/7	3/6	F-Score 5	5/10
Aon plcAON	$71.8B	$338.31	$17.2B	$3.7B	39.5%	1.63	25.3%	1.11	2/7	4/7	3/6	F-Score 6	3/10
HUMANA INCHUM	$54.0B	$450.00	$129.7B	$1.2B	6.7%	0.70	2.1%	2.00	3/7	2/7	1/6	F-Score 4	4/10
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INCSLF	$40.5B	$72.93	$30.6B	$2.6B	14.5%	0.33	—	—	3/7	3/7	2/6	F-Score 6	6/10
HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.HIG	$36.8B	$137.48	$28.4B	$3.8B	20.2%	0.23	—	—	3/7	3/7	4/6	F-Score 7	8/10