NI Holdings, Inc.

NODK

NI Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, underwrites property and casualty insurance products in the United States. Its products include private passenger auto, homeowners, farm owners, commercial multi-peril, crop hail, excess liability, dwelling, and federal multi-peril crop insurance policies, as well as non-standard automobile insurance policies.

About the company

Country: United StatesPrice: $14.98Market Cap: $304.2M

Investment snapshot

25%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

1 / 11

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$8.82

-41.1% vs price

Models with upside

1 / 16

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

7 of 11 pass — Buffett, Piotroski, Marks +1 more object

Key risk

All 4 investors flag NODK's efficiency

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	PASS	PASS	BUY	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL
Score
Analysis	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…
Intrinsic Value (annual)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A			N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	+63.8%	N/A	-69.8%	-353.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 vs 2025-09-30 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · TTM ended 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Balance sheet at 2026-09-30 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14	TTM ended 2026-09-30 · Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-11-06 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Debt & Leverage64% pass✓ 9✗ 4▾
7 of 11 pass — Buffett, Piotroski, Marks +1 more object
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.01, IC: N/A
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity0.01
✓Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$42.6M
✓LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.46% -> 0.47%
✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.01
✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels0.01
✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDA
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.01
✓Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.0098; #612/4210 (top 14.5%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

Where It Falls Short

Efficiency0% pass✗ 5▾
All 4 investors flag NODK's efficiency
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.62x -> 0.56x
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Return on Invested Capital
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Profitability7% pass✓ 3✗ 29▾
14 of 15 flag NODK's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +11 more
Net income / market capitalization+4.94%; #1705/6340 (top 26.9%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive EPS (10 years)5/13 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)8/13 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-5.5%
✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$-53.3M
✗BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)5.58
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE6.1%
✗Lynch> 15%
Net Income / Total Assets-2.06%
✗PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY-1.15% -> -2.06% (delta: -0.91%)
✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-3.02%, ROA=-2.06%
✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue7.7%
✗Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity6.1%
✗Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/B=1.3x
✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity-3.0% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency8/12 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity6.1%
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Gross profit / total assets+18.05%; #2184/3702 (top 59.0%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity+6.15%; #2317/5226 (top 44.3%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0337; #2057/5884 (top 35.0%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-13.9% over 4 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years5/9 years positive
✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Valuation8% pass✓ 6✗ 20▾
11 of 12 flag NODK's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +8 more
Price / Book Value per Share1.3x
✗Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Net income / market capitalization+4.94%; #1705/6340 (top 26.9%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Price / 3-yr avg EPS
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio1.3x
✓Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
Price / EPS
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
✗Dreman< 8x
Valuation Reasonableness
✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-5.1%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=1.3x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
✗Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low120% of trailing low ($12.50)
✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.8037; #1914/6449 (top 29.7%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share1.28x
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change-28.5%
✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.8526; #1956/5247 (top 37.3%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-1.00%; #2661/4519 (top 58.9%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+16.30%; #1541/6202 (top 24.8%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Growth13% pass✓ 2✗ 10▾
7 of 8 flag NODK's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
EPS Growth Direction$0.71 (2017) -> $-0.50 (2025)
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR-13.9% CAGR over 4 years
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency8/12 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth7.0%
✓Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency1/5 years with positive EPS growth
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR
✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR-1.4%
✗SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-13.9% over 4 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Cash Flow20% pass✓ 2✗ 10▾
8 of 10 flag NODK's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Piotroski +5 more
Free Cash Flow Proxy$-53.3M
✗BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$-3.0M
✗LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$-15.3M
✗PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-3.02%, ROA=-2.06%
✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-5.1%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive10/12 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-1.0%
✗Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
✗Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency10/12 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-3.0M
✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-1.00%; #2661/4519 (top 58.9%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Verdicts27% pass✓ 4✗ 11▾
Split decision: 11 FAIL · 3 PASS · 1 BUY · 1 NEUTRAL
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (2/7)✗BuffettFAIL (0/7)✗LynchFAIL (2/6)✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 1)✗DremanFAIL (1/10)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (2/6)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)✓AsnessBUY (Rank #271/2370 (Top 11.4%))✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (1/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
Valuation models33% pass✓ 1✗ 2▾
Models split on NODK at $14.98 — fair values range $3.30–$41.36
Munger fair value$41.36
✓Munger+63.8% margin vs $14.98
Akre fair value$8.82
✗Akre-69.8% margin vs $14.98
Marks fair value$3.30
✗Marks-353.9% margin vs $14.98

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Insurance

SIC Sector: Insurance Carriers

Size: Small Cap($304.2M)

Revenue: $285.1M-12.3% YoY

Net Income: $10.4M-71.8% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin--

Return on Equity-4.3%

Debt / Equity0.01

Current Ratio--

EPS (Diluted)$-0.50

Buybacks (1y)$2.5M

Shares Retired0.6% / 0.2% 2y

Similar Companies

UNHUNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC

$365.1B

PGRPROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/

$136.6B

MRSHMARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.

$98.8B

CILJFCHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTD

$85.1B

Sector-adjusted criteria: Insurer

Insurers file unclassified balance sheets with no inventory or current accounts, so those criteria are omitted rather than failed for missing data. Return-on-invested-capital tests are omitted too: float funds the balance sheet but never appears in invested capital, and the portfolio it is invested in would be subtracted as spare cash. Debt tests are kept — an insurer’s borrowings are real leverage on top of underwriting.

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 0.6% of shares last year, 0.2% over two.

Buybacks: $2.5M
Dividends: $6.7M

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

The latest annual period end is unavailable. Showing the latest fiscal cycle’s quarters; quarter and annual columns may overlap. Quarterly shows the full quarter history.

Metric	TTM · 2026-09-30 2025-10-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-K · 2026-03-06 10-Q · 2026-05-08 10-Q · 2026-08-07 10-Q · 2026-11-06 Derived from cumulative filings: revenue, net income, gross profit, pre tax income, operating cash flow, capex, buybacks.	Q3 FY 2026 2026-07-01 – 2026-09-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-Q · 2026-11-06 Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, capex.	Q2 FY 2026 2026-04-01 – 2026-06-30 Sources · derived quarter values 10-Q · 2026-08-07 Derived from cumulative filings: operating cash flow, capex.	Q1 FY 2026 2026-01-01 – 2026-03-31 Sources 10-Q · 2026-05-08	FY 2025 Sources 10-K · 2026-03-06	FY 2024 Sources 10-K · 2025-03-07	FY 2023 Sources 10-K · 2024-03-15	FY 2022 Sources 10-K · 2023-03-08	FY 2021 Sources 10-K · 2022-03-09
Market Cap	$304.2Mcurrent	--	--	--	$279.9Mest.	$312.2Mest.	$275.2Mest.	$279.3Mest.	$409.5Mest.
Revenue	$259.4M↓13%	$68.6M↓10%	$70.2M↓8%	$59.6M↓17%	$285.1M↓12%	$325.2M↑7%	$304.0M↑14%	$267.8M↓17%	$324.0M
Operating Income	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Net Income	$15.0M↑480%	$5.5M↑432%	$146.0K↑101%	$12.5M↑94%	-$10.4M↓72%	-$6.1M↓11%	-$5.5M↑90%	-$53.1M↓731%	$8.4M
EPS (Diluted)	--	$0.27↑438%	$0.01↑102%	$0.60↑94%	$-0.50↓72%	$-0.29↓12%	$-0.26↑90%	$-2.49↓738%	$0.39
Gross Margin	35.0%↑16%	34.4%↑68%	23.6%↑181%	53.3%↑31%	24.5%↓22%	31.6%↓9%	34.7%↑210%	11.2%↓56%	25.7%
Operating Margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROE	6.1%↑478%	—	—	—	-4.3%↓75%	-2.5%↓13%	-2.2%↑90%	-21.0%↓966%	2.4%
Total Debt	$2.4M	$2.4M	$2.4M	$2.4M↑1241%	$2.4M	$2.4M	$2.4M	--	$5.0M
Shareholders' Equity	$244.5M	$244.5M	$249.4M↑2%	$250.2M↓1%	$240.3M↓2%	$244.6M↓2%	$250.4M↓1%	$253.2M↓27%	$347.4M
Current Ratio	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Debt / Equity	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01↑1261%	0.01↑2%	0.01↑2%	0.01	—	0.01
Operating Cash Flow	-$2.8M↑59%	-$15.1M↑66%	$912.0K↓86%	-$1.9M↓119%	-$15.3M↓140%	$38.5M↓25%	$51.0M↑434%	-$15.3M↓152%	$29.2M
Free Cash Flow	-$3.0M↑58%	-$15.3M↑66%	$893.0K↓86%	-$1.9M↓119%	-$15.5M↓141%	$37.5M↓26%	$50.4M↑411%	-$16.2M↓157%	$28.4M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Insurance

NODK vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$285.1MBottom 25%

Net Income$10.4MBottom 25%

ROE-4.3%Bottom 25%

D/E0.01Top 25%

Op. Margin—

Curr. Ratio—

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Piotroski	Dreman
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUNH	$365.1B	$407.46	$447.6B	$12.1B	12.0%	0.78	4.2%	0.79	3/7	4/7	2/6	F-Score 6	3/10
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/PGR	$136.6B	$235.78	$87.7B	$11.3B	37.3%	0.23	—	—	2/7	2/7	4/6	F-Score 6	8/10
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.MRSH	$98.8B	$207.78	$27.0B	$4.2B	27.2%	1.28	23.1%	1.10	3/7	3/7	2/6	F-Score 6	5/10
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO LTDCILJF	$85.1B	$3.01	—	—	—	—	—	—	5/7	1/7	3/6	F-Score 5	5/10
Aon plcAON	$71.8B	$338.31	$17.2B	$3.7B	39.5%	1.63	25.3%	1.11	2/7	4/7	3/6	F-Score 6	3/10
HUMANA INCHUM	$54.0B	$450.00	$129.7B	$1.2B	6.7%	0.70	2.1%	2.00	3/7	2/7	1/6	F-Score 4	4/10
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INCSLF	$40.5B	$72.93	$30.6B	$2.6B	14.5%	0.33	—	—	3/7	3/7	2/6	F-Score 6	6/10
HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.HIG	$36.8B	$137.48	$28.4B	$3.8B	20.2%	0.23	—	—	3/7	3/7	4/6	F-Score 7	8/10