Orchid Island Capital, Inc.

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Profitability0% pass✓ 3✗ 32▾

  No clean pass — all 16 investors flag at least one profitability criterion

  Positive EPS (10 years)7/16 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)9/16 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-11.7%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE-0.5%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets1.36%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY0.66% -> 1.36% (delta: +0.70%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=1.03%, ROA=1.36%

  ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-0.5%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of Safety

  ✗PabraiP/FFO < 15

  Return on Equity3.0% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic Value

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency9/15 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity-0.5%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization-0.71%; #3362/6340 (top 53.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity-0.54%; #2954/5226 (top 56.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0284; #1830/5884 (top 31.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years4/6 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Efficiency0% pass✗ 11▾

  All 8 investors flag ORC's efficiency

  Current Ratio

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=unavailable; FY2025: ROIC=unavailable

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Debt & Leverage8% pass✓ 1✗ 14▾

  11 of 12 flag ORC's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more

  LT Debt vs Net Current Assets

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest Coverage

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDA

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity

  ✗Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation8% pass✓ 8✗ 17▾

  12 of 13 flag ORC's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +9 more

  Price / FFO per Share

  ✗Graham<= 15x✗Dreman< 12x✗Ackman<= 25

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / (CFO / Shares)7.1x

  ✓Dreman< 8x

  Valuation Reasonableness

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/FFO or FFO Yield

  ✗PabraiP/FFO < 15 or FFO Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=0.6x

  ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic Value

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / EPS

  ✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price vs. Trailing Low100% of trailing low ($4.68)

  ✓Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Price / Book Value per Share0.6x

  ✓Templeton< 1.5x✓SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Net income / market capitalization-0.71%; #3362/6340 (top 53.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+1.3276; #1067/6449 (top 16.5%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share0.62x

  ✓SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change+38.1%

  ✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-35.00%; #4627/6202 (top 74.6%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Growth13% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾

  7 of 8 flag ORC's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency9/15 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth

  ✗Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trend

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Verdicts15% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾

  Split decision: 11 FAIL · 3 NEUTRAL · 2 PASS

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (0/7)✗BuffettFAIL (0/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗DremanFAIL (2/10)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✗AckmanFAIL (0/9)✓TempletonPASS (4/8)✗SleepFAIL (1/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (1/6)•SchlossNEUTRAL (4/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Cash Flow33% pass✓ 3✗ 4▾

  4 of 6 flag ORC's cash flow — Buffett, Piotroski, Neff +1 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$120.4M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=1.03%, ROA=1.36%

  ✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)7.1x

  ✓Dreman< 8x

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency14/15 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation models50% pass✓ 1✗ 1▾

  Models split on ORC at $4.68 — fair values range $4.57–$14.29

  Pabrai fair value$14.29

  ✓Pabrai+67.2% margin vs $4.68

  Akre fair value$4.57

  ✗Akre-2.4% margin vs $4.68