Orion Group Holdings Inc

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Valuation0% pass✓ 1✗ 27▾

  No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio1.9x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 126.2x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value2.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=2.8%, ROC=5.1%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS126.2x

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)10.8x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share1.9x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=126.2x, OE Yield=-7.5%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=126.2x, FCF Yield=-3.5%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=126.2x, P/B=1.9x

  ✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low145% of trailing low ($5.23)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization+1.88%; #2765/6340 (top 43.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.5626; #2635/6449 (top 40.9%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS126.2x

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share1.90x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change-23.9%

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+3.0136; #810/5247 (top 15.4%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-12.47%; #3321/4519 (top 73.5%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-34.23%; #4588/6202 (top 74.0%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Efficiency0% pass✓ 1✗ 10▾

  No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one efficiency criterion

  Current Ratio1.37

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)0.2%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-9.8%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)5.1%

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY1.41 -> 1.36

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY1.91x -> 2.06x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.37

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital3.2%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-3.3%; FY2024: ROIC=5.2%; FY2025: ROIC=6.9%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC6.9% (RR=100% x ROIC=6.9%)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest 6.9%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Valuation models0% pass✗ 4▾

  ORN overvalued: all 4 models price fair value below $7.57 (median $2.33)

  Graham fair value$2.32

  ✗Graham-226.3% margin vs $7.57

  Greenblatt fair value$1.29

  ✗Greenblatt-486.8% margin vs $7.57

  Munger fair value$3.33

  ✗Munger-127.3% margin vs $7.57

  Akre fair value$2.35

  ✗Akre-222.1% margin vs $7.57
• Profitability6% pass✓ 8✗ 27▾

  15 of 16 flag ORN's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +12 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)11/23 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-190.0%

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)13/23 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-6.6%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)1.7% (latest)

  ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-16.9M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)N/A (negative mean EPS)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 126.2x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR-38.3%

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE3.3%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value2.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=2.8%, ROC=5.1%

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets0.60%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-0.39% -> 0.60% (delta: +0.99%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.77%, ROA=0.60%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY11.4% -> 12.4%

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-0.0%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity3.3%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/E=126.2x, P/B=1.9x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity-4.7% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency13/23 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue1.2%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity3.3%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend-0.9% (2023) -> 1.7% (2025)

  ✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 8.7% -> 12.4%, operating margin -0.9% -> 1.7%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization+1.88%; #2765/6340 (top 43.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+20.01%; #2058/3702 (top 55.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+3.34%; #2641/5226 (top 50.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0203; #1452/5884 (top 24.7%)

  ✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-38.3% over 5 years

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years3/10 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Verdicts7% pass✓ 1✗ 14▾

  Split decision: 13 FAIL · 2 NEUTRAL · 1 PASS

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)✗GreenblattRank #1690•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 7)✗DremanFAIL (1/11)✗MungerFAIL (0/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✓AckmanPASS (4/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1405/2370 (Top 59.3%))✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (1/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Cash Flow20% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

  8 of 10 flag ORN's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Dreman +5 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-16.9M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$-38.4M

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$28.1M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=6.77%, ROA=0.60%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)10.8x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=126.2x, FCF Yield=-3.5%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive9/21 years FCF positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-12.7%

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency20/21 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-38.4M

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-12.47%; #3321/4519 (top 73.5%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Debt & Leverage25% pass✓ 5✗ 10▾

  9 of 12 flag ORN's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +6 more

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $99.4M vs NCA $81.0M

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.63, IC: 1.3x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity0.63

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-93.7M

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change5.45% -> 1.47%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.37

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.63

  ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels0.63

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=1.3x, D/EBITDA=3.6x

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.63

  ✓Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.6281; #2714/4210 (top 64.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Growth25% pass✓ 4✗ 9▾

  6 of 8 flag ORN's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +3 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-190.0%

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 126.2x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR-38.3%

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 5.9% vs Rev: 11.0%

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction$0.20 (2005) -> $0.06 (2025)

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR-5.8% CAGR over 20 years

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency13/23 years positive

  ✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth7.0%

  ✓Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 8.7% -> 12.4%, operating margin -0.9% -> 1.7%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR3.7%

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-38.3% over 5 years

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized