Phoenix Energy One, LLC

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Growth0% pass✓ 2✗ 11▾

  No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one growth criterion

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthN/A (no inventory)

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency1/3 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth141.2%

  ✓Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency

  ✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 83.3% -> 77.4%, operating margin 27.1% -> 25.6%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR

  ✗SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Verdicts0% pass✗ 12▾

  Split decision: 12 FAIL · 4 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)•GreenblattNot ranked•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 7)✗DremanFAIL (1/11)•MungerNEUTRAL (3/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (0/5)✗AckmanFAIL (3/9)✗TempletonFAIL (1/8)✗SleepFAIL (0/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (0/6)✗SchlossFAIL (0/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Debt & Leverage8% pass✓ 1✗ 14▾

  11 of 12 flag PHXE-P's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +8 more

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $1.6B vs NCA $-487.1M

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 49.18, IC: 2.0x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity49.18

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-1.5B

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change77.28% -> 68.39%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.36

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity49.18

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✗Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✗SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Debt Levels49.18

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=2.0x, D/EBITDA=2.5x

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity49.18

  ✗Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-49.1813; #4204/4210 (top 99.9%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
• Valuation8% pass✓ 1✗ 27▾

  12 of 13 flag PHXE-P's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +9 more

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio32.2x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value4.6%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=4.6%, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)8.4x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share32.2x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=9.7%

  ✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF Yield

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=32.2x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic Value

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low132% of trailing low ($19.00)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization-0.09%; #3223/6340 (top 50.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.0149; #5158/6449 (top 80.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share32.16x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.5501; #2500/5247 (top 47.6%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+2.57%; #2346/6202 (top 37.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Cash Flow10% pass✓ 2✗ 10▾

  9 of 10 flag PHXE-P's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Dreman +6 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$301.1M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=16.66%, ROA=3.66%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)8.4x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF Yield

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency2/3 years positive

  ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Profitability13% pass✓ 7✗ 28▾

  14 of 16 flag PHXE-P's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +11 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)0/4 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)1/4 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)84.5%

  ✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)

  ✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE-5.9%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value4.6%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=4.6%, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets3.66%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-2.41% -> 3.66% (delta: +6.07%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=16.66%, ROA=3.66%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY77.3% -> 77.4%

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-5.9%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/B=32.2x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity84.5% (3-yr avg)

  ✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic Value

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency1/3 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue32.3%

  ✓Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity-5.9%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend27.1% (2023) -> 25.6% (2025)

  ✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 83.3% -> 77.4%, operating margin 27.1% -> 25.6%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization-0.09%; #3223/6340 (top 50.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+29.44%; #1473/3702 (top 39.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity-5.90%; #3250/5226 (top 62.2%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Efficiency13% pass✓ 2✗ 9▾

  7 of 8 flag PHXE-P's efficiency — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +4 more

  Current Ratio0.36

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)8.8%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-1.2%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY0.69 -> 0.41

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.27x -> 0.38x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities0.36

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital18.8%

  ✓Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=unavailable; FY2024: ROIC=6.6%; FY2025: ROIC=9.5%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC9.5% (RR=100% x ROIC=9.5%)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)0/2 years above 12% (latest 9.5%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Valuation models33% pass✓ 1✗ 2▾

  Models split on PHXE-P at $25.15 — fair values range $7.37–$39.90

  Greenblatt fair value$7.37

  ✗Greenblatt-241.2% margin vs $25.15

  Pabrai fair value$39.90

  ✓Pabrai+37.0% margin vs $25.15

  Akre fair value$8.42

  ✗Akre-198.7% margin vs $25.15