SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD

SVA

Country: Antigua and BarbudaPrice: $6.47Market Cap: $464.9M

Investment snapshot

24%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

2 / 10

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$55.71

+761.1% vs price

Models with upside

2 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

Models split on SVA at $6.47 — fair values range $1.25–$223.95

Key risk

No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	PASS	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL · Rank #2447 (Top 79%)	FAIL	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	BUY	FAIL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	BUY	NEUTRAL
Score
Analysis	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…	Checking access…
Intrinsic Value (annual)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A		N/A	N/A		N/A	N/A		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	-417.6%	N/A	N/A	+88.4%	N/A	N/A	+97.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-08-01–2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-08-01–2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-08-01–2026-10-01 Latest source filing: 2026-06-05 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Valuation models67% pass✓ 2✗ 1▾
Models split on SVA at $6.47 — fair values range $1.25–$223.95
Dreman fair value$1.25
✗Dreman-417.6% margin vs $6.47
Akre fair value$55.71
✓Akre+88.4% margin vs $6.47
Templeton fair value$223.95
✓Templeton+97.1% margin vs $6.47
Debt & Leverage58% pass✓ 10✗ 5▾
7 of 12 pass — Buffett, Lynch, Piotroski +2 more object
LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $494.9M vs NCA $5.5B
✓GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.11, IC: -50.6x
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity0.11
✓Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$-6.6M
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change3.05% -> 5.79%
✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities4.59
✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.11
✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels0.11
✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✓AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-50.6x, D/EBITDA=N/A (D&A unavailable)
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.11
✓Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.1115; #1329/4210 (top 31.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

Valuation0% pass✓ 7✗ 21▾
No clean pass — all 13 investors flag at least one valuation criterion
Price / 3-yr avg EPS
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio0.1x
✓Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value-103.9%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-103.9%, ROC=-8.5%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
✗Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share0.1x
✓Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✓SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation Reasonableness
✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-120.7%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=0.1x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
✗Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Net income / market capitalization-42.77%; #4982/6340 (top 78.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive book equity / market capitalization+9.5474; #192/6449 (top 3.0%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share0.11x
✓SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change
✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.8302; #1992/5247 (top 38.0%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-120.68%; #4104/4519 (top 90.8%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Cash Flow0% pass✗ 12▾
All 10 investors flag SVA's cash flow
Free Cash Flow Proxy$-30.4M
✗BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$-561.1M
✗LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$-512.2M
✗PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-6.00%, ROA=-2.33%
✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)
✗Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-120.7%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive7/17 years FCF positive
✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-120.7%
✗Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)
✗Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency10/17 years positive
✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-561.1M
✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-120.68%; #4104/4519 (top 90.8%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Profitability19% pass✓ 7✗ 28▾
13 of 16 flag SVA's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +10 more
Positive EPS (10 years)9/18 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)9/18 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)17.3%
✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-127.0% (latest)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$-30.4M
✗BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE-4.5%
✗Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value-103.9%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-103.9%, ROC=-8.5%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets-2.33%
✗PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY0.33% -> -2.33% (delta: -2.66%)
✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-6.00%, ROA=-2.33%
✗PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY61.1% -> 67.9%
✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-67.9%
✗Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-4.5%
✗Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/B=0.1x
✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity-1.4% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency9/17 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue-127.0%
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity-4.5%
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR7.0% CAGR over 4 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend-151.9% (2023) -> -127.0% (2025)
✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 68.8% -> 67.9%, operating margin -151.9% -> -127.0%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Net income / market capitalization-42.77%; #4982/6340 (top 78.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Gross profit / total assets+3.07%; #3204/3702 (top 86.5%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity-4.48%; #3186/5226 (top 61.0%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.1961; #4210/5884 (top 71.5%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR25.4% over 5 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years7/10 years positive
✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Growth25% pass✓ 3✗ 10▾
6 of 8 flag SVA's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +3 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR
✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -2.7% vs Rev: 6.8%
✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency9/17 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth-23.1%
✗Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR7.0% CAGR over 4 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 68.8% -> 67.9%, operating margin -151.9% -> -127.0%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR-5.4%
✗SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR25.4% over 5 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Efficiency25% pass✓ 3✗ 8▾
6 of 8 flag SVA's efficiency — Buffett, Greenblatt, Piotroski +3 more
Current Ratio4.59
✓Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)1.4%
✗Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC-8.6%
✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)-8.5%
✗Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY7.33 -> 4.59
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.03x -> 0.05x
✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities4.59
✓Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital-7.8%
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-6.6%; FY2024: ROIC=-4.6%; FY2025: ROIC=-7.8%
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)1/5 years above 12% (latest -7.8%)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Verdicts27% pass✓ 4✗ 11▾
Split decision: 10 FAIL · 2 PASS · 2 BUY · 2 NEUTRAL
Overall verdict
✓GrahamPASS (4/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (2/7)✗GreenblattRank #2447✗PiotroskiFAIL (F-Score 3)✗DremanFAIL (4/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✗AckmanFAIL (2/9)✓TempletonBUY (6/8)✗SleepFAIL (1/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✓SchlossBUY (6/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Pharmaceutical Products

SIC Sector: Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals

Size: Small Cap($464.9M)

Revenue: $386.0M+6.8% YoY

Net Income: $198.8M-589.1% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin-127.0%

Return on Equity-4.5%

Debt / Equity0.11

Current Ratio4.59

EPS (Diluted)$-0.83−98.7% 1y

Shares Retired0.0%

Similar Companies

MRKMerck & Co., Inc.

$364.3B

ABTABBOTT LABORATORIES

$188.0B

BMYBRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO

$129.7B

TECHBIO-TECHNE Corp

$11.4B

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Retired 0.0% of shares last year.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: $3.5B

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22

−98.7% = −99.8% + 655.9%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2025 Sources 20-F · 2026-06-05	FY 2024 Sources 20-F · 2026-04-30	FY 2023 Sources 20-F · 2024-04-29	FY 2022 Sources 20-F · 2023-05-01	FY 2021 Sources 20-F · 2022-04-29
Market Cap	$464.9Mcurrent	-$3.5Best.	-$4.8Best.	-$4.8Best.	-$4.8Best.
Revenue	$386.0M↑7%	$361.4M↓23%	$470.2M↓68%	$1.5B↓92%	$19.4B
Operating Income	-$490.1M↑3%	-$505.5M↑29%	-$714.0M↓40%	-$509.0M↓103%	$17.6B
Net Income	-$198.8M↓589%	$40.7M↑401%	-$13.5M↓193%	$14.5M↓100%	$8.1B
EPS (Diluted)	$-0.83↓165%	$1.27↑220%	$-1.06↓206%	$1.00↓99%	$74.27
Gross Margin	67.9%↑11%	61.1%↓11%	68.8%↑24%	55.3%↓42%	94.9%
Operating Margin	-127.0%↑9%	-139.9%↑8%	-151.9%↓340%	-34.5%↓138%	91.0%
ROE	-4.5%↓1010%	0.5%↑403%	-0.2%↓195%	0.2%↓100%	90.3%
Total Debt	$494.9M↑32%	$375.8M↑48%	$253.9M↑2051%	$11.8M↓25%	$15.8M
Shareholders' Equity	$4.4B↓46%	$8.3B↓1%	$8.3B↓2%	$8.5B↓6%	$9.0B
Current Ratio	4.59↓37%	7.33↓18%	8.97	9.00↑52%	5.93
Debt / Equity	0.11↑145%	0.05↑49%	0.03↑2096%	0.00↓21%	0.00
Operating Cash Flow	-$512.2M↓800%	-$56.9M↓141%	$138.6M↑117%	-$798.1M↓105%	$15.3B
Free Cash Flow	-$561.1M↓267%	-$152.9M↓772%	-$17.5M↑98%	-$1.1B↓108%	$14.7B

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Pharmaceutical Products

SVA vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$386.0MBottom 25%

Net Income$198.8MBottom 25%

ROE-4.5%Bottom 25%

D/E0.11Top 25%

Op. Margin-127.0%Bottom 25%

Curr. Ratio4.59Top 25%

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski	Dreman
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK	$364.3B	$147.76	$65.0B	$18.3B	34.7%	0.94	—	1.54	2/9	5/9	4/7	0/3	F-Score 4	1/11
ABBOTT LABORATORIESABT	$188.0B	$108.52	$44.3B	$6.5B	12.5%	0.25	18.2%	1.58	3/9	4/9	2/7	1/3	F-Score 5	3/11
BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB COBMY	$129.7B	$63.43	$48.2B	$7.1B	38.2%	2.44	19.4%	1.26	2/9	1/9	3/7	1/3	F-Score 8	5/11
BIO-TECHNE CorpTECH	$11.4B	$72.80	$1.2B	$73.4M	3.8%	—	8.4%	3.46	4/9	3/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 5	4/11
REPLIGEN CORPRGEN	$10.7B	$167.79	$738.3M	$48.9M	2.3%	0.26	7.5%	8.37	3/9	2/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 7	5/11
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INCIONS	$4.8B	$29.06	$943.7M	$381.4M	-78.0%	3.60	-40.4%	3.83	3/9	1/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 4	3/11
NEOGEN CORPNEOG	$2.5B	$11.23	$870.4M	$7.9M	-0.4%	0.76	-2.5%	3.82	3/9	1/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 6	4/11
Pharvaris N.V.PHVS	$2.4B	$33.36	—	$206.4M	-64.8%	0.00	—	—	0/9	0/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 2	2/11