TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO LTD

TAK

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience.

About the company

Country: JapanPrice: $21.43Market Cap: $68.5B

Investment snapshot

29%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

2 / 9

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$20.45

-4.5% vs price

Models with upside

5 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

8 of 10 pass — Pabrai and Oshaughnessy object

Key risk

No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one efficiency criterion

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	Not ranked	PASS	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	FAIL	FAIL	PASS	NEUTRAL	FAIL	BUY	NEUTRAL	BUY	FAIL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)					N/A					N/A			N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	-24.9%	+35.4%	-316.9%	-75.4%	N/A	-66.9%	+52.5%	+7.3%	+14.5%	N/A	+60.6%	-20.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-06-25 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Cash Flow80% pass✓ 10✗ 2▾
8 of 10 pass — Pabrai and Oshaughnessy object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$4.5B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$5.7B
✓LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$7.1B
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=7.42%, ROA=0.76%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)4.8x
✓Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=47.7x, FCF Yield=8.4%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive9/9 years FCF positive
✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap16.8%
✓Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share6.0x
✓Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency9/9 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$5.7B
✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+8.36%; #956/4519 (top 21.2%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

Efficiency0% pass✓ 1✗ 10▾
No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one efficiency criterion
Current Ratio1.01
✗Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)3.1%
✗Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC-6.9%
✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)
✗Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY1.11 -> 1.01
✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.28x -> 0.32x
✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.01
✗Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital2.4%
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2022: ROIC=3.6%; FY2023: ROIC=1.4%; FY2024: ROIC=2.4%
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC0.0% (RR=0% x ROIC=2.4%)
✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest 2.4%)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Valuation15% pass✓ 10✗ 18▾
11 of 13 flag TAK's valuation — Graham, Lynch, Greenblatt +8 more
Price / 3-yr avg EPS25.0x
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio0.7x
✓Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B18.40
✓Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)4.17
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value2.4%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=2.4%, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS47.7x
✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)4.8x
✓Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share0.7x
✓Dreman< 1.2x✓Templeton< 1.5x✓SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=47.7x, OE Yield=13.1%
✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=47.7x, FCF Yield=8.4%
✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=47.7x, P/B=0.7x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value-66.9% (IV=$12.84 vs Price=$21.43)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share6.0x
✓Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low160% of trailing low ($13.39)
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Net income / market capitalization+1.05%; #2969/6340 (top 46.8%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.6770; #2273/6449 (top 35.2%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS47.7x
✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E0.36
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per ShareN/A (non-positive TBVPS)
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change+5.0%
✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.4473; #2781/5247 (top 53.0%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+8.36%; #956/4519 (top 21.2%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+34.27%; #924/6202 (top 14.9%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Profitability19% pass✓ 11✗ 24▾
13 of 16 flag TAK's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +10 more
Positive EPS (10 years)9/10 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)9/10 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)4.0%
✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)7.5% (latest)
✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$4.5B
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)4.17
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR11.4%
✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE1.6%
✗Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value2.4%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=2.4%, ROC=None
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets0.76%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY0.95% -> 0.76% (delta: -0.20%)
✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=7.42%, ROA=0.76%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY66.5% -> 65.5%
✗PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue3.8%
✗Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity1.6%
✗Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/E=47.7x, P/B=0.7x
✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity2.8% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value-66.9% (IV=$12.84 vs Price=$21.43)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency9/9 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue7.5%
✗Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity1.6%
✗Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR11.4% CAGR over 5 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend12.2% (2022) -> 7.5% (2024)
✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 69.1% -> 65.5%, operating margin 12.2% -> 7.5%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Net income / market capitalization+1.05%; #2969/6340 (top 46.8%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Gross profit / total assets+21.06%; #1995/3702 (top 53.9%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity+1.56%; #2800/5226 (top 53.6%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0080; #691/5884 (top 11.7%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR11.4% over 5 years
✓Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years9/9 years positive
✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
Debt & Leverage25% pass✓ 5✗ 10▾
9 of 12 flag TAK's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +6 more
LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $26.5B vs NCA $98.1M
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.65, IC: 2.5x
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity0.65
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$-24.9B
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change29.63% -> 27.84%
✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.01
✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.65
✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels0.65
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=2.5x, D/EBITDA=4.1x
✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.65
✓Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.6511; #2748/4210 (top 65.3%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Verdicts36% pass✓ 5✗ 9▾
Split decision: 9 FAIL · 3 PASS · 2 NEUTRAL · 2 BUY
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)✗BuffettFAIL (2/9)✗LynchFAIL (3/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 5)✗DremanFAIL (4/11)✓MungerPASS (2/4)✗PabraiFAIL (1/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)✓AckmanPASS (5/9)•TempletonNEUTRAL (5/8)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)✓AsnessBUY (Rank #494/2370 (Top 20.8%))•NeffNEUTRAL (4/6)✓SchlossBUY (5/7)✗OshaughnessyFAIL (Rank #358/963 (Top 37.2%))
Growth38% pass✓ 5✗ 8▾
5 of 8 flag TAK's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +2 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)4.17
✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR11.4%
✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 1.8% vs Rev: 8.8%
✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction
✗DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR
✗Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency9/9 years positive
✓MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth3.4%
✗Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR11.4% CAGR over 5 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 69.1% -> 65.5%, operating margin 12.2% -> 7.5%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR0.1%
✗SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR11.4% over 5 years
✓Neff7%-20% annualized
Valuation models50% pass✓ 5✗ 5▾
Models split on TAK at $21.43 — fair values range $5.14–$54.42
Graham fair value$17.16
✗Graham-24.9% margin vs $21.43
Buffett fair value$33.19
✓Buffett+35.4% margin vs $21.43
Lynch fair value$5.14
✗Lynch-316.9% margin vs $21.43
Greenblatt fair value$12.22
✗Greenblatt-75.4% margin vs $21.43
Dreman fair value$12.84
✗Dreman-66.9% margin vs $21.43
Munger fair value$45.14
✓Munger+52.5% margin vs $21.43
Pabrai fair value$23.12
✓Pabrai+7.3% margin vs $21.43
Akre fair value$25.06
✓Akre+14.5% margin vs $21.43
Ackman fair value$54.42
✓Ackman+60.6% margin vs $21.43
Templeton fair value$17.79
✗Templeton-20.5% margin vs $21.43

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2024. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Pharmaceutical Products

SIC Sector: Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals

Size: Large Cap($68.5B)

Revenue: $30.6B+8.8% YoY

Net Income: $721.4M-24.2% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin7.5%

Return on Equity1.6%

Debt / Equity0.65

Current Ratio1.01

EPS (Diluted)$0.45−25.4% 1y

Buybacks (1y)$346.6M

Buybacks (2y)$362.0M

Shares Retired−0.5% / −0.5% 2y

Similar Companies

MRKMerck & Co., Inc.

$364.3B

ABTABBOTT LABORATORIES

$188.0B

BMYBRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO

$129.7B

TECHBIO-TECHNE Corp

$11.4B

Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2024

Issued 0.5% of shares last year, 0.5% issued over two.

Buybacks: $346.6M
Dividends: $2.0B

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY21

−44.8% = −44.7% + −0.2%

FY22

26.8% = 26.2% + 0.5%

FY23

−60.3% = −60.0% + −0.7%

FY24

−25.4% = −24.2% + −1.6%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2024 Sources 20-F · 2025-06-25	FY 2023 Sources 20-F · 2024-06-26	FY 2022 Sources 20-F · 2023-06-28	FY 2021 Sources 20-F · 2022-06-29	FY 2020 Sources 20-F · 2021-06-29
Market Cap	$68.5Bcurrent	$21.6Best.	$23.4Best.	$21.4Best.	$26.0Best.
Revenue	$30.6B↑9%	$28.2B↓7%	$30.2B↑3%	$29.2B↑1%	$29.0B
Operating Income	$2.3B↑62%	$1.4B↓62%	$3.7B↓2%	$3.8B↓18%	$4.6B
Net Income	$721.4M↓24%	$951.3M↓60%	$2.4B↑26%	$1.9B↓45%	$3.4B
EPS (Diluted)	$0.45↓25%	$0.60↓60%	$1.52↑27%	$1.20↓45%	$2.17
Gross Margin	65.5%↓2%	66.5%↓4%	69.1%	69.0%	68.9%
Operating Margin	7.5%↑49%	5.0%↓59%	12.2%↓6%	12.9%↓19%	15.9%
ROE	1.6%↓21%	2.0%↓60%	5.0%↑23%	4.0%↓44%	7.3%
Total Debt	$30.2B↓6%	$32.0B↓3%	$32.9B↓8%	$35.6B↓15%	$42.0B
Shareholders' Equity	$46.4B↓3%	$48.0B↑1%	$47.7B↑2%	$46.6B↓1%	$46.9B
Current Ratio	1.01↓9%	1.11↑14%	0.97↓20%	1.21↓21%	1.53
Debt / Equity	0.65↓2%	0.67↓3%	0.69↓10%	0.76↓15%	0.90
Operating Cash Flow	$7.1B↑49%	$4.7B↓36%	$7.3B↓20%	$9.2B	$9.2B
Free Cash Flow	$5.7B↑60%	$3.6B↓43%	$6.3B↓23%	$8.2B	$8.2B

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

Similar companies in Pharmaceutical Products

TAK vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$30.6BMedian

Net Income$721.4MMedian

ROE1.6%Median

D/E0.65Median

Op. Margin7.5%Median

Curr. Ratio1.01Bottom 25%

Company	Market Cap	Price	Revenue	Net Income	ROE	D/E	Op. Margin	Curr. Ratio	Graham	Buffett	Lynch	Greenblatt	Piotroski	Dreman
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK	$364.3B	$147.76	$65.0B	$18.3B	34.7%	0.94	—	1.54	2/9	5/9	4/7	0/3	F-Score 4	1/11
ABBOTT LABORATORIESABT	$188.0B	$108.52	$44.3B	$6.5B	12.5%	0.25	18.2%	1.58	3/9	4/9	2/7	1/3	F-Score 5	3/11
BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB COBMY	$129.7B	$63.43	$48.2B	$7.1B	38.2%	2.44	19.4%	1.26	2/9	1/9	3/7	1/3	F-Score 8	5/11
BIO-TECHNE CorpTECH	$11.4B	$72.80	$1.2B	$73.4M	3.8%	—	8.4%	3.46	4/9	3/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 5	4/11
REPLIGEN CORPRGEN	$10.7B	$167.79	$738.3M	$48.9M	2.3%	0.26	7.5%	8.37	3/9	2/9	3/7	0/3	F-Score 7	5/11
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INCIONS	$4.8B	$29.06	$943.7M	$381.4M	-78.0%	3.60	-40.4%	3.83	3/9	1/9	1/7	0/3	F-Score 4	3/11
NEOGEN CORPNEOG	$2.5B	$11.23	$870.4M	$7.9M	-0.4%	0.76	-2.5%	3.82	3/9	1/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 6	4/11
Pharvaris N.V.PHVS	$2.4B	$33.36	—	$206.4M	-64.8%	0.00	—	—	0/9	0/9	2/7	0/3	F-Score 2	2/11