Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.
VISTAbout the company
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina.
Investment snapshot
Positive
5
BUY / PASS
Neutral / negative
5 / 6
NEUTRAL / FAIL
Median fair value
$49.36
-11.6% vs price
Models with upside
4 / 17
Positive margin of safety
Strongest signal
5 of 8 pass — Marks, Sleep and Neff object
Key risk
10 of 13 flag VIST's valuation — Graham, Greenblatt, Dreman +7 more
Framework analysis
| Verdict | Meaning |
|---|---|
| BUY | Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met. |
| PASS | The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state. |
| NEUTRAL | Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position. |
| FAIL | The company does not clear the framework's requirements. |
| Ranked | Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL. |
Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.
| Metric | Graham Defensive Value | Buffett Quality Compounder | Lynch GARP | Greenblatt Magic Formula | Piotroski F-Score | Dreman Contrarian Value | Munger Quality Focus | Pabrai Dhandho Framework | Akre Three-Legged Stool | Marks Risk-Aware Value | Ackman Activist Value | Templeton Global Bargain Hunter | Sleep Scale Economies Shared | Asness Systematic Factors | Neff Low-P/E Total Return | Schloss Asset-Value Discipline | O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | FAIL | PASS | FAIL | FAIL · Rank #729 (Top 23.5%) | PASS | PASS | NEUTRAL | BUY | NEUTRAL | FAIL | NEUTRAL | FAIL | NEUTRAL | BUY | FAIL | FAIL | NEUTRAL |
| Score | |||||||||||||||||
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| Intrinsic Value (annual) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||
| Margin of Safety | -32.6% | +5.7% | +51.8% | -13.1% | N/A | +1.9% | N/A | +33.8% | -140.6% | -148.3% | N/A | -139.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Financial Basis | Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 | Annual history · FY 2024 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2025-04-09 Score computed: 2026-11-14 |
Where It Passes
- Growth63% pass✓ 10✗ 3▾
5 of 8 pass — Marks, Sleep and Neff object
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)2500.0%✓Graham>= 33% growthBasic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.12✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)3-5 Year EPS CAGR104.3%✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to passInventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -14.3% vs Rev: 41.0%✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growthEPS Growth Direction$0.15 (2017) -> $4.63 (2024)✓DremanPositive over recent yearsEPS CAGR63.9% CAGR over 7 years✓Dreman> 5% annualizedPositive Net Income Frequency5/7 years positive✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years3yr Median Revenue Growth41.0%✓Ackman>= 5%Positive EPS Growth Frequency4/5 years with positive EPS growth✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years5-Year EPS CAGR104.3% CAGR over 3 years✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 53.1% -> 49.6%, operating margin 44.6% -> 38.0%✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding5-year Revenue CAGR31.7%✓SleepCAGR > 7%3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR104.3% over 3 years✗Neff7%-20% annualized - Cash Flow60% pass✓ 7✗ 5▾
6 of 10 pass — Lynch, Ackman, Neff +1 more object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$477.5M✓BuffettPositive and growingFCF Positive and Growing$-93.5M✗LynchPositive and growingOperating Cash Flow$959.0M✓PiotroskiCFO > 0(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=22.66%, ROA=11.28%✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROAPrice / (CFO / Shares)5.5x✓Dreman< 8xP/E or FCF YieldP/E=12.1x, FCF Yield=-1.5%✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%FCF Positive4/7 years FCF positive✓MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-1.8%✗Ackman>= 4%Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)✗Ackman<= 25Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency7/7 years positive✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available yearsOperating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-93.5M✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-1.52%; #2715/4519 (top 60.1%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Where It Falls Short
- Valuation23% pass✓ 9✗ 19▾
10 of 13 flag VIST's valuation — Graham, Greenblatt, Dreman +7 more
Net income / market capitalization+7.74%; #1042/6340 (top 16.4%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionPrice / 3-yr avg EPS14.7x✓Graham<= 15xPrice-to-Book Ratio3.3x✗Graham<= 1.5xP/E x P/B48.30✗Graham<= 22.5Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.12✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)EBIT / Enterprise Value8.2%✗Greenblatt> 10%Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=8.2%, ROC=22.0%✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%Price / EPS12.1x✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)Price / (CFO / Shares)5.5x✓Dreman< 8xPrice / Book Value per Share3.3x✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=12.1x, OE Yield=-2.6%✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%P/E or FCF YieldP/E=12.1x, FCF Yield=-1.5%✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=12.1x, P/B=3.3x✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0Discount to Intrinsic Value1.9% (IV=$56.94 vs Price=$55.84)✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic valuePrice / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)✗Ackman<= 25Price vs. Trailing Low162% of trailing low ($34.40)✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.2628; #3867/6449 (top 60.0%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionPrice / Diluted EPS12.1x✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)Price / Tangible Book Value per Share3.36x✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)Book Value per Share Change+145.6%✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)Revenue / market capitalization+0.2671; #3478/5247 (top 66.3%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-1.52%; #2715/4519 (top 60.1%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionTrailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-24.74%; #4194/6202 (top 67.6%)✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section - Debt & Leverage25% pass✓ 4✗ 11▾
9 of 12 flag VIST's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +6 more
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.89✗Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00xLT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $1.4B vs NCA $-5.5M✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current AssetsDebt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.89, IC: 10.0x✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5xTotal Debt / Equity0.89✗Lynch< 0.33Cash - Long-term Debt$-1.4B✗LynchPositive preferredLT Debt / Total Assets Change21.36% -> 33.13%✗PiotroskiDecreased YoYCurrent Assets / Current Liabilities0.99✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)Debt Levels0.89✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=10.0x, D/EBITDA=1.4x✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4xTotal Debt / Shareholders Equity0.89✓Ackman<= 1.0Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.8935; #3099/4210 (top 73.6%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section - Profitability38% pass✓ 19✗ 16▾
10 of 16 flag VIST's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +7 more
Net income / market capitalization+7.74%; #1042/6340 (top 16.4%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-sectionPositive EPS (10 years)5/9 years positive✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 yearsEPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)2500.0%✓Graham>= 33% growthNet Income Positive (10+ years)5/9 years positive✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ yearsROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)16.4%✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)Operating Margin (10-yr trend)38.0% (latest)✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 yearsFree Cash Flow Proxy$477.5M✓BuffettPositive and growingEarnings Variance (10-yr CoV)1.41✗BuffettCoV < 0.3Retained Earnings Effectiveness✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value createdBasic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.12✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)3-5 Year EPS CAGR104.3%✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to passROE29.5%✓Lynch> 15%EBIT / Enterprise Value8.2%✗Greenblatt> 10%Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=8.2%, ROC=22.0%✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%Net Income / Total Assets11.28%✓PiotroskiROA > 0ROA Change YoY15.28% -> 11.28% (delta: -4.00%)✗PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=22.66%, ROA=11.28%✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROAGross Margin Change YoY50.6% -> 49.6%✗PiotroskiImproved YoYPre-Tax Income / Revenue35.9%✓Dreman>= 8%Net Income / Shareholders' Equity29.5%✓Dreman> 12%Margin of SafetyP/E=12.1x, P/B=3.3x✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15Return on Equity31.1% (3-yr avg)✓AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)Discount to Intrinsic Value1.9% (IV=$56.94 vs Price=$55.84)✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic valuePositive Net Income Frequency5/7 years positive✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 yearsOperating Income / Revenue38.0%✓Ackman>= 15%Net Income / Shareholders Equity29.5%✓Ackman>= 15%5-Year EPS CAGR104.3% CAGR over 3 years✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)Operating Margin Trend44.6% (2022) -> 38.0% (2024)✗TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 yearsRevenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 53.1% -> 49.6%, operating margin 44.6% -> 38.0%✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holdingGross profit / total assets+19.32%; #2090/3702 (top 56.5%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionNet income / positive book equity+29.45%; #457/5226 (top 8.7%)✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-sectionNegative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0838; #3264/5884 (top 55.5%)✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR104.3% over 3 years✗Neff7%-20% annualizedPositive Diluted-EPS Years5/7 years positive✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule) - Verdicts42% pass✓ 5✗ 7▾
Split decision: 6 FAIL · 5 NEUTRAL · 3 PASS · 2 BUY
Overall verdict✗GrahamFAIL (3/9)✓BuffettPASS (5/9)✗LynchFAIL (4/7)✗GreenblattRank #729✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✓DremanPASS (6/11)•MungerNEUTRAL (3/4)✓PabraiBUY (3/3)•AkreNEUTRAL (4/6)✗MarksFAIL (3/5)•AckmanNEUTRAL (7/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)•SleepNEUTRAL (4/6)✓AsnessBUY (Rank #514/2370 (Top 21.7%))✗NeffFAIL (2/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked) - Valuation models44% pass✓ 4✗ 5▾
Models split on VIST at $55.84 — fair values range $22.49–$115.83
Graham fair value$42.11✗Graham-32.6% margin vs $55.84Buffett fair value$59.22✓Buffett+5.7% margin vs $55.84Lynch fair value$115.83✓Lynch+51.8% margin vs $55.84Greenblatt fair value$49.36✗Greenblatt-13.1% margin vs $55.84Dreman fair value$56.94✓Dreman+1.9% margin vs $55.84Pabrai fair value$84.33✓Pabrai+33.8% margin vs $55.84Akre fair value$23.21✗Akre-140.6% margin vs $55.84Marks fair value$22.49✗Marks-148.3% margin vs $55.84Templeton fair value$23.29✗Templeton-139.8% margin vs $55.84 - Efficiency50% pass✓ 6✗ 5▾
4 of 8 pass — Graham, Greenblatt, Piotroski +1 more object
Current Ratio0.99✗Graham>= 2.0ROIC (3-5 yr avg)17.3%✓Buffett> 10%ROIC - WACC+7.3%✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)22.0%✗Greenblatt> 25%Current Ratio Change YoY1.19 -> 0.99✗PiotroskiIncreased YoYRevenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.45x -> 0.39x✗PiotroskiImproved YoYCurrent Assets / Current Liabilities0.99✗Dreman> 1.5Return on Invested Capital16.1%✓Munger> 15%ROIC (high and growing)FY2022: ROIC=30.0%; FY2023: ROIC=26.8%; FY2024: ROIC=16.1%✓AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in eachReinvestment Rate x ROIC16.1% (RR=100% x ROIC=16.1%)✓AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%ROIC (5-year)4/5 years above 12% (latest 16.1%)✓SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Business & financials
Financial snapshot: annual FY 2024. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.
Company Profile
Financial Snapshot
Shareholder Return
Fiscal 2024
Retired 0.1% of shares last year, 7.8% issued over two.
- Buybacks
- $99.8M
- Dividends
- —
What drove EPS
A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.
The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.
Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.
Company Financials
Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years
TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.
| Metric | FY 2024Sources
| FY 2023Sources
| FY 2022Sources
| FY 2021Sources
| FY 2020Sources
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $6.2Bcurrent | $3.1Best. | $1.4Best. | $555.7Mest. | $218.7Mest. |
| Revenue | $1.6B↑41% | $1.2B↓2% | $1.2B↑79% | $665.3M↑143% | $273.9M |
| Operating Income | $625.4M↓1% | $631.5M↑19% | $529.1M↑151% | $210.6M↑401% | -$70.0M |
| Net Income | $477.5M↑20% | $397.0M↑47% | $269.5M↑432% | $50.6M↑149% | -$102.7M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.63↑16% | $4.00↑45% | $2.75↑407% | $0.54↑146% | $-1.18 |
| Gross Margin | 49.6%↓2% | 50.6%↓5% | 53.1%↑32% | 40.1%↑4412% | 0.9% |
| Operating Margin | 38.0%↓30% | 54.0%↑21% | 44.6%↑41% | 31.6%↑224% | -25.6% |
| ROE | 29.5%↓7% | 31.8% | 31.9%↑256% | 9.0%↑144% | -20.2% |
| Total Debt | $1.4B↑135% | $616.1M↑12% | $549.3M↓10% | $611.0M↑13% | $539.8M |
| Shareholders' Equity | $1.6B↑30% | $1.2B↑48% | $844.1M↑49% | $565.3M↑11% | $508.5M |
| Current Ratio | 0.99↓16% | 1.19↑39% | 0.85↓12% | 0.97↑21% | 0.80 |
| Debt / Equity | 0.89↑81% | 0.49↓24% | 0.65↓40% | 1.08↑2% | 1.06 |
| Operating Cash Flow | $959.0M↑35% | $712.0M↑3% | $689.8M↑72% | $401.4M↑328% | $93.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$93.5M↓496% | $23.6M↓89% | $210.7M↑163% | $80.1M↑235% | -$59.5M |
Score history
Historical Score Timeline
Industry peers
Industry Peers
Similar companies in Petroleum and Natural Gas
VIST vs Peers — Financial Grading
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Revenue | Net Income | ROE | D/E | Op. Margin | Curr. Ratio | Graham | Buffett | Lynch | Greenblatt | Piotroski | Dreman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalEnergies SETTE | $199.0B | $90.74 | $201.2B | $13.1B | 11.4% | 0.49 | — | 0.97 | 4/9 | 4/9 | 1/7 | 0/3 | F-Score 4 | 6/11 |
| CONOCOPHILLIPSCOP | $168.2B | $142.28 | $58.9B | $8.0B | 12.4% | 0.36 | — | 1.30 | 2/9 | 3/9 | 3/7 | 0/3 | F-Score 7 | 6/11 |
| BP PLCBP | $117.7B | $45.70 | $192.5B | $55.0M | 0.1% | 1.09 | 6.6% | 1.26 | 1/9 | 3/9 | 1/7 | 0/3 | F-Score 5 | 2/11 |
| SUNCOR ENERGY INCSU | $80.5B | $69.92 | $38.2B | $4.3B | 13.1% | 0.22 | — | 1.39 | 2/9 | 2/9 | 2/7 | 0/3 | F-Score 4 | 6/11 |
| CENOVUS ENERGY INC.CVE | $52.6B | $29.08 | $36.3B | $2.9B | 12.4% | 0.35 | — | 1.57 | 1/9 | 1/9 | 3/7 | 0/3 | F-Score 5 | 5/11 |
| WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTDWDS | $40.1B | $21.08 | $13.0B | $2.7B | 7.6% | 0.33 | 30.0% | 1.59 | 3/9 | 4/9 | 0/7 | 0/3 | F-Score 4 | 7/11 |
| EXPAND ENERGY CorpEXE | $20.4B | $88.53 | $12.1B | $1.8B | 9.8% | 0.27 | 20.4% | 1.01 | 2/9 | 5/9 | 3/7 | 1/3 | F-Score 7 | 7/11 |
| YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMAYPF | $14.9B | $37.90 | $18.4B | $826.0M | -7.6% | 0.98 | 9.4% | 0.87 | 2/9 | 1/9 | 1/7 | 0/3 | F-Score 4 | 3/11 |