Zai Lab Ltd

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Valuation0% pass✗ 28▾

  All 13 investors flag ZLAB's valuation

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio3.8x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value-8.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-8.8%, ROC=N/A (invested capital <= 0)

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share3.8x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessOE Yield=-6.2%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-5.2%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/B=3.8x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low148% of trailing low ($1.66)

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization-6.46%; #3977/6340 (top 62.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.1834; #4264/6449 (top 66.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share4.23x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change-56.8%

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.1438; #4095/5247 (top 78.0%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-5.32%; #3001/4519 (top 66.4%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date+13.68%; #1660/6202 (top 26.8%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Cash Flow0% pass✓ 1✗ 11▾

  No clean pass — all 10 investors flag at least one cash flow criterion

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-168.6M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing$-163.3M

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$-150.8M

  ✗PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-12.86%, ROA=-14.97%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)N/A (negative CFPS)

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldFCF Yield=-5.2%

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive0/11 years FCF positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap-6.0%

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per ShareN/A (negative FCF)

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency0/11 years positive

  ✗SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$-163.3M

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization-5.32%; #3001/4519 (top 66.4%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Profitability6% pass✓ 5✗ 30▾

  15 of 16 flag ZLAB's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +12 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)0/12 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)0/12 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-38.1%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)-49.9% (latest)

  ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy$-168.6M

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE-35.2%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value-8.8%

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=-8.8%, ROC=N/A (invested capital <= 0)

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets-14.97%

  ✗PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-21.68% -> -14.97% (delta: +6.71%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=-12.86%, ROA=-14.97%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY63.1% -> 58.6%

  ✗PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue-45.9%

  ✗Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity-35.2%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/B=3.8x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity-32.4% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency0/11 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue-63.0%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity-35.2%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend-137.4% (2023) -> -49.9% (2025)

  ✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 64.1% -> 58.6%, operating margin -137.4% -> -49.9%

  ✓SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization-6.46%; #3977/6340 (top 62.7%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+23.00%; #1852/3702 (top 50.0%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity-35.22%; #3998/5226 (top 76.5%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.1029; #3518/5884 (top 59.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years0/10 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Verdicts20% pass✓ 3✗ 12▾

  Split decision: 12 FAIL · 3 PASS · 1 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (2/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (0/7)•GreenblattNot ranked✓PiotroskiPASS (F-Score 4)✗DremanFAIL (3/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (0/5)✓AckmanPASS (5/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✓SleepPASS (3/6)✗AsnessFAIL (Rank #1831/2370 (Top 77.3%))✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (2/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Growth25% pass✓ 4✗ 9▾

  6 of 8 flag ZLAB's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +3 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 27.0% vs Rev: 0.0%

  ✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction

  ✗DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency0/11 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth24.0%

  ✓Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency4/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 64.1% -> 58.6%, operating margin -137.4% -> -49.9%

  ✓SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR56.5%

  ✓SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Efficiency25% pass✓ 3✗ 8▾

  6 of 8 flag ZLAB's efficiency — Buffett, Greenblatt, Piotroski +3 more

  Current Ratio2.04

  ✓Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)-1020.4%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-1030.4%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)N/A (invested capital <= 0)

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY3.51 -> 2.45

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.34x -> 0.39x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities2.04

  ✓Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital-27.0%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=-36.4%; FY2024: ROIC=-22.9%; FY2025: ROIC=-19.7%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROICN/A (non-positive net income)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)0/3 years above 12% (latest -19.7%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Debt & Leverage50% pass✓ 8✗ 7▾

  6 of 12 pass — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +3 more object

  Debt Levels0.45

  ✓MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  LT Debt vs Net Current Assets

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.45, IC: -45.2x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity0.45

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change0.00% -> 0.00%

  ✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities2.04

  ✓Dreman> 1.5✓SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.45

  ✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=-45.2x, D/EBITDA=N/A

  ✗MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.45

  ✓Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.4480; #2360/4210 (top 56.1%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section