Ero Copper Corp.

ERO

Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

About the company

Country: CanadaPrice: $29.06Market Cap: $3.0B

Investment snapshot

24%positive consensus

Scored 1d ago

Positive

BUY / PASS

Neutral / negative

4 / 8

NEUTRAL / FAIL

Median fair value

$20.02

-31.1% vs price

Models with upside

3 / 17

Positive margin of safety

Strongest signal

8 of 10 pass — Marks and Oshaughnessy object

Key risk

6 of 8 flag ERO's growth — Graham, Lynch, Marks +3 more

Framework analysis

Verdict	Meaning
BUY	Positive purchase signal: the framework's buy requirements are met.
PASS	The company clears the framework's checklist or screen, but the framework does not produce a buy signal. For valuation frameworks this often means margin of safety is missing, insufficient, or unavailable; some screen-only frameworks have no intrinsic-value BUY state.
NEUTRAL	Neither a positive nor negative conclusion. It does not mean to hold an existing position.
FAIL	The company does not clear the framework's requirements.
Ranked	Ranked strategies do not use PASS: selected cohort is BUY, outside the cohort is FAIL, and unranked is NEUTRAL.

Current investor scores use trailing 12-month flows and the latest balance sheet where supported. Multi-year and EPS tests retain annual history; each framework shows its financial basis below. Intrinsic values use annual financials.

Metric	Graham Defensive Value	Buffett Quality Compounder	Lynch GARP	Greenblatt Magic Formula	Piotroski F-Score	Dreman Contrarian Value	Munger Quality Focus	Pabrai Dhandho Framework	Akre Three-Legged Stool	Marks Risk-Aware Value	Ackman Activist Value	Templeton Global Bargain Hunter	Sleep Scale Economies Shared	Asness Systematic Factors	Neff Low-P/E Total Return	Schloss Asset-Value Discipline	O'Shaughnessy Systematic Factor Composite
Verdict	FAIL	PASS	FAIL	FAIL · Rank #848 (Top 27.4%)	BUY	NEUTRAL	FAIL	NEUTRAL	FAIL	FAIL	BUY	NEUTRAL	FAIL	BUY	FAIL	FAIL	NEUTRAL
Score
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Intrinsic Value (annual)					N/A			N/A					N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margin of Safety	-28.5%	-38.8%	+54.1%	-142.2%	N/A	-103.9%	-52.0%	N/A	+60.4%	-73.0%	+7.5%	-187.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Financial Basis	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Qualitative assessment · Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Market data at 2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Qualitative assessment Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14	Annual history · FY 2025 · Price history 2025-01-01–2026-11-01 Latest source filing: 2026-03-30 Score computed: 2026-11-14

Where It Passes

Cash Flow80% pass✓ 10✗ 2▾
8 of 10 pass — Marks and Oshaughnessy object
Free Cash Flow Proxy$263.7M
✓BuffettPositive and growing
FCF Positive and Growing$132.4M
✓LynchPositive and growing
Operating Cash Flow$395.1M
✓PiotroskiCFO > 0
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=20.54%, ROA=13.71%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Price / (CFO / Shares)7.7x
✓Dreman< 8x
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=11.5x, FCF Yield=4.4%
✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
FCF Positive3/6 years FCF positive
✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years
(OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap4.4%
✓Ackman>= 4%
Price / FCF per Share22.9x
✓Ackman<= 25
Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency6/6 years positive
✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years
Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures$132.4M
✓Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+4.36%; #1720/4519 (top 38.1%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

Where It Falls Short

Growth25% pass✓ 7✗ 6▾
6 of 8 flag ERO's growth — Graham, Lynch, Marks +3 more
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-31.4%
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.33
✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR35.2%
✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: 154.5% vs Rev: 67.1%
✗LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth
EPS Growth Direction$0.56 (2020) -> $2.53 (2025)
✓DremanPositive over recent years
EPS CAGR35.2% CAGR over 5 years
✓Dreman> 5% annualized
Positive Net Income Frequency5/6 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
3yr Median Revenue Growth10.0%
✓Ackman>= 5%
Positive EPS Growth Frequency2/5 years with positive EPS growth
✗AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years
5-Year EPS CAGR35.2% CAGR over 5 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 36.7% -> 43.9%, operating margin 22.3% -> 34.4%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
5-year Revenue CAGR19.4%
✓SleepCAGR > 7%
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR35.2% over 5 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Efficiency25% pass✓ 5✗ 6▾
6 of 8 flag ERO's efficiency — Graham, Greenblatt, Dreman +3 more
Current Ratio1.06
✗Graham>= 2.0
ROIC (3-5 yr avg)22.0%
✓Buffett> 10%
ROIC - WACC+12.0%
✓BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)
EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)18.2%
✗Greenblatt> 25%
Current Ratio Change YoY0.67 -> 1.06
✓PiotroskiIncreased YoY
Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.32x -> 0.41x
✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.06
✗Dreman> 1.5
Return on Invested Capital14.4%
✗Munger> 15%
ROIC (high and growing)FY2023: ROIC=6.1%; FY2024: ROIC=7.5%; FY2025: ROIC=14.4%
✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each
Reinvestment Rate x ROIC14.4% (RR=100% x ROIC=14.4%)
✓AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%
ROIC (5-year)2/5 years above 12% (latest 14.4%)
✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
Valuation models30% pass✓ 3✗ 7▾
Models split on ERO at $29.06 — fair values range $10.12–$73.34
Graham fair value$22.61
✗Graham-28.5% margin vs $29.06
Buffett fair value$20.93
✗Buffett-38.8% margin vs $29.06
Lynch fair value$63.25
✓Lynch+54.1% margin vs $29.06
Greenblatt fair value$12.00
✗Greenblatt-142.2% margin vs $29.06
Dreman fair value$14.25
✗Dreman-103.9% margin vs $29.06
Munger fair value$19.12
✗Munger-52.0% margin vs $29.06
Akre fair value$73.34
✓Akre+60.4% margin vs $29.06
Marks fair value$16.80
✗Marks-73.0% margin vs $29.06
Ackman fair value$31.42
✓Ackman+7.5% margin vs $29.06
Templeton fair value$10.12
✗Templeton-187.2% margin vs $29.06
Valuation31% pass✓ 11✗ 17▾
9 of 13 flag ERO's valuation — Graham, Greenblatt, Dreman +6 more
Net income / market capitalization+8.69%; #858/6340 (top 13.5%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Price / 3-yr avg EPS30.6x
✗Graham<= 15x
Price-to-Book Ratio3.2x
✗Graham<= 1.5x
P/E x P/B99.00
✗Graham<= 22.5
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.33
✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
EBIT / Enterprise Value7.8%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=7.8%, ROC=18.2%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Price / EPS11.5x
✓Dreman< 12x✓Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)
Price / (CFO / Shares)7.7x
✓Dreman< 8x
Price / Book Value per Share3.2x
✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)
Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=11.5x, OE Yield=0.1%
✓MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%
P/E or FCF YieldP/E=11.5x, FCF Yield=4.4%
✓PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%
P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=11.5x, P/B=3.2x
✓MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0
Discount to Intrinsic Value-103.9% (IV=$14.25 vs Price=$29.06)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Price / FCF per Share22.9x
✓Ackman<= 25
Price vs. Trailing Low246% of trailing low ($11.82)
✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)
Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.3083; #3662/6449 (top 56.8%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Price / Diluted EPS11.5x
✓NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)
(EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E
✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)
Price / Tangible Book Value per Share3.24x
✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)
Book Value per Share Change+264.6%
✓SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)
Revenue / market capitalization+0.2590; #3511/5247 (top 66.9%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
(Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization+4.36%; #1720/4519 (top 38.1%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date-6.71%; #3235/6202 (top 52.2%)
✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Verdicts31% pass✓ 4✗ 9▾
Split decision: 8 FAIL · 4 NEUTRAL · 3 BUY · 1 PASS
Overall verdict
✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✓BuffettPASS (4/9)✗LynchFAIL (4/7)✗GreenblattRank #848✓PiotroskiBUY (F-Score 8)•DremanNEUTRAL (8/11)✗MungerFAIL (1/4)•PabraiNEUTRAL (2/3)✗AkreFAIL (1/6)✗MarksFAIL (2/5)✓AckmanBUY (8/9)•TempletonNEUTRAL (5/8)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)✓AsnessBUY (Rank #644/2370 (Top 27.2%))✗NeffFAIL (3/6)✗SchlossFAIL (3/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
Debt & Leverage33% pass✓ 6✗ 9▾
8 of 12 flag ERO's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +5 more
LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $551.4M vs NCA $15.5M
✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets
Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.59, IC: 8.1x
✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x
Total Debt / Equity0.59
✗Lynch< 0.33
Cash - Long-term Debt$-446.0M
✗LynchPositive preferred
LT Debt / Total Assets Change38.15% -> 28.66%
✓PiotroskiDecreased YoY
Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.06
✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)
Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.59
✓Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x
Debt Levels0.59
✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3
Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=8.1x, D/EBITDA=2.0x
✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x
Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.59
✓Ackman<= 1.0
Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.5894; #2640/4210 (top 62.7%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Profitability44% pass✓ 19✗ 16▾
9 of 16 flag ERO's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt +6 more
Net income / market capitalization+8.69%; #858/6340 (top 13.5%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
Positive EPS (10 years)5/7 years positive
✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years
EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)-31.4%
✗Graham>= 33% growth
Net Income Positive (10+ years)5/7 years positive
✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years
ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)19.6%
✓Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)
Operating Margin (10-yr trend)34.4% (latest)
✗BuffettStable or rising over 10 years
Free Cash Flow Proxy$263.7M
✓BuffettPositive and growing
Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)0.94
✗BuffettCoV < 0.3
Retained Earnings Effectiveness
✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created
Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)0.33
✓Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)
3-5 Year EPS CAGR35.2%
✓Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass
ROE28.2%
✓Lynch> 15%
EBIT / Enterprise Value7.8%
✗Greenblatt> 10%
Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=7.8%, ROC=18.2%
✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%
Net Income / Total Assets13.71%
✓PiotroskiROA > 0
ROA Change YoY-4.70% -> 13.71% (delta: +18.40%)
✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA
(CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=20.54%, ROA=13.71%
✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA
Gross Margin Change YoY38.4% -> 43.9%
✓PiotroskiImproved YoY
Pre-Tax Income / Revenue42.1%
✓Dreman>= 8%
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity28.2%
✓Dreman> 12%
Margin of SafetyP/E=11.5x, P/B=3.2x
✓PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15
Return on Equity9.4% (3-yr avg)
✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)
Discount to Intrinsic Value-103.9% (IV=$14.25 vs Price=$29.06)
✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value
Positive Net Income Frequency5/6 years positive
✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years
Operating Income / Revenue34.4%
✓Ackman>= 15%
Net Income / Shareholders Equity28.2%
✓Ackman>= 15%
5-Year EPS CAGR35.2% CAGR over 5 years
✓Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)
Operating Margin Trend22.3% (2023) -> 34.4% (2025)
✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years
Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 36.7% -> 43.9%, operating margin 22.3% -> 34.4%
✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding
Gross profit / total assets+17.91%; #2204/3702 (top 59.5%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Net income / positive book equity+28.19%; #493/5226 (top 9.4%)
✓AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.1106; #3607/5884 (top 61.3%)
✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section
3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR35.2% over 5 years
✗Neff7%-20% annualized
Positive Diluted-EPS Years5/6 years positive
✓Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)

Business & financials

Financial snapshot: annual FY 2025. Current investor scores may use newer quarterly data.

Company Profile

Industry: Non-Metallic Mining

SIC Sector: Metal Mining

Size: Mid Cap($3.0B)

Revenue: $785.8M+67.1% YoY

Net Income: $263.7M+485.1% YoY

Financial Snapshot

Operating Margin34.4%

Return on Equity28.2%

Debt / Equity0.59

Current Ratio1.06

EPS (Diluted)$2.53−10.9% 1y

Shares Retired−0.6% / −1.4% 2y

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Shareholder Return

Fiscal 2025

Issued 0.6% of shares last year, 1.4% issued over two.

Buybacks: —
Dividends: —

What drove EPS

A buyback raises earnings per share without the company earning more. This splits each year's change into the two.

FY22

−50.2% = −49.4% + −1.7%

FY23

−10.9% = −8.9% + −2.2%

Earnings Fewer shares More shares

The two parts do not sum exactly to the total — the difference is the cross-term, plus preferred capital where the company has any. It is left visible rather than distributed into the other two.

Share count is the denominator the filer used for diluted EPS, recovered as net income ÷ EPS — not the balance-sheet count, which is a point-in-time figure and would put the timing difference into this split. Years with a loss are omitted: a smaller share count makes a loss per share larger, so the decomposition inverts.

Company Financials

Latest TTM and quarters alongside annual years

TTM sums four consecutive quarters and uses the latest quarter-end balances. Quarter columns show three-month results; annual columns show full-year totals. Growth compares the same period a year earlier. EPS is not added for TTM; full-year ratios are blank for quarters.

Metric	FY 2025 Sources 40-F · 2026-03-30	FY 2024 Sources 40-F · 2025-03-06	FY 2023 Sources 40-F · 2024-03-07	FY 2022 Sources 40-F · 2023-03-08	FY 2021 Sources 40-F · 2022-03-11
Market Cap	$3.0Bcurrent	$1.4Best.	$1.6Best.	$1.5Best.	$1.1Best.
Revenue	$785.8M↑67%	$470.3M↑10%	$427.5M	$426.4M↓13%	$489.9M
Operating Income	$270.6M↑148%	$108.9M↑14%	$95.2M↓27%	$129.8M↓52%	$272.2M
Net Income	$263.7M↑485%	-$68.5M↓174%	$92.8M↓9%	$101.8M↓49%	$201.1M
EPS (Diluted)	$2.53↑483%	$-0.66↓167%	$0.98↓11%	$1.10↓50%	$2.21
Gross Margin	43.9%↑14%	38.4%↑5%	36.7%↓16%	43.9%↓33%	65.1%
Operating Margin	34.4%↑49%	23.2%↑4%	22.3%↓27%	30.4%↓45%	55.6%
ROE	28.2%↑342%	-11.7%↓201%	11.5%↓39%	18.9%↓63%	51.2%
Total Debt	$551.4M↓1%	$556.3M↑31%	$426.2M↑2%	$418.1M↑606%	$59.3M
Shareholders' Equity	$935.5M↑59%	$587.1M↓27%	$804.3M↑49%	$538.6M↑37%	$393.1M
Current Ratio	1.06↑58%	0.67↓42%	1.15↓62%	3.04↑79%	1.70
Debt / Equity	0.59↓38%	0.95↑79%	0.53↓32%	0.78↑415%	0.15
Operating Cash Flow	$395.1M↑172%	$145.4M↓11%	$163.1M↑14%	$143.4M↓61%	$364.6M
Free Cash Flow	$132.4M↑172%	-$183.5M↑35%	-$284.1M↓104%	-$139.4M↓171%	$195.4M

Score history

Historical Score Timeline

Industry peers

Industry Peers

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ERO vs Peers — Financial Grading

Revenue$785.8MBottom 25%

Net Income$263.7MBottom 25%

ROE28.2%Top 25%

D/E0.59Bottom 25%

Op. Margin34.4%Top 25%

Curr. Ratio1.06Bottom 25%

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SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/SCCO	$140.0B	$164.08	$13.4B	$4.3B	39.4%	0.61	52.2%	3.89	4/9	5/9	4/7	1/3	F-Score 7	5/11
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