New Gold Inc. /FI

Where It Passes

Where It Falls Short

• Valuation0% pass✗ 28▾

  All 13 investors flag NGD's valuation

  Price / 3-yr avg EPS

  ✗Graham<= 15x

  Price-to-Book Ratio6.8x

  ✗Graham<= 1.5x

  P/E x P/B

  ✗Graham<= 22.5

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 64.9x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  EBIT / Enterprise Value

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Price / EPS64.9x

  ✗Dreman< 12x✗Templeton< 12x (fixed ceiling; proxy for the market's cheapest 40%)

  Price / (CFO / Shares)18.3x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  Price / Book Value per Share6.8x

  ✗Dreman< 1.2x✗Templeton< 1.5x✗SchlossP/B <= 0.80x (app cutoff)

  Valuation ReasonablenessP/E=64.9x, OE Yield=4.9%

  ✗MungerP/E < 25 or Owner Earnings Yield > 5%

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=64.9x

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  P/B or P/E vs. Historical AverageP/E=64.9x, P/B=6.8x

  ✗MarksP/E < 15 or P/B < 2.0

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Price vs. Trailing Low

  ✗Templeton<= 120% of trailing low (certified split-adjusted live window)

  Net income / market capitalization+1.43%; #2871/6340 (top 45.3%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Positive book equity / market capitalization+0.1465; #4489/6449 (top 69.6%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Price / Diluted EPS64.9x

  ✗NeffP/E <= 15x (app proxy for a P/E 40%-60% below the market)

  (EPS CAGR % + Dividend Yield %) / P/E

  ✗Neff> 0.7 (Neff's published traditional edge)

  Price / Tangible Book Value per Share6.82x

  ✗SchlossP/TBV <= 1.00x (app cutoff)

  Book Value per Share Change-6.4%

  ✗SchlossLatest BVPS >= earliest BVPS over >= 3 years (app rule)

  Revenue / market capitalization+0.1287; #4179/5247 (top 79.6%)

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Trailing six-month price return through the evaluation date

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Efficiency0% pass✓ 1✗ 10▾

  No clean pass — all 8 investors flag at least one efficiency criterion

  Current Ratio1.39

  ✗Graham>= 2.0

  ROIC (3-5 yr avg)3.4%

  ✗Buffett> 10%

  ROIC - WACC-6.6%

  ✗BuffettPositive (WACC = 10%)

  EBIT / (NWC + Net Fixed Assets)

  ✗Greenblatt> 25%

  Current Ratio Change YoY1.54 -> 1.39

  ✗PiotroskiIncreased YoY

  Revenue / Total Assets Change YoY0.34x -> 0.46x

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.39

  ✗Dreman> 1.5

  Return on Invested Capital7.4%

  ✗Munger> 15%

  ROIC (high and growing)FY2022: ROIC=-0.5%; FY2023: ROIC=2.1%; FY2024: ROIC=7.4%

  ✗AkreLatest 3 consecutive FYs: ROIC > 15% in each

  Reinvestment Rate x ROIC7.4% (RR=100% x ROIC=7.4%)

  ✗AkreReinvestment Rate * ROIC > 10%

  ROIC (5-year)0/5 years above 12% (latest 7.4%)

  ✗SleepROIC > 12% in a majority of years
• Verdicts0% pass✗ 12▾

  Split decision: 12 FAIL · 4 NEUTRAL

  Overall verdict

  ✗GrahamFAIL (1/9)✗BuffettFAIL (1/9)✗LynchFAIL (1/7)•GreenblattNot ranked•PiotroskiNEUTRAL (F-Score 6)✗DremanFAIL (2/11)✗MungerFAIL (0/4)✗PabraiFAIL (0/3)✗AkreFAIL (0/6)✗MarksFAIL (1/5)•AckmanNEUTRAL (6/9)✗TempletonFAIL (3/8)✗SleepFAIL (2/6)•AsnessNEUTRAL (Not ranked)✗NeffFAIL (1/6)✗SchlossFAIL (1/7)•OshaughnessyNEUTRAL (Not ranked)
• Valuation models0% pass✗ 4▾

  NGD overvalued: all 4 models price fair value below $9.08 (median $1.40)

  Graham fair value$2.05

  ✗Graham-342.9% margin vs $9.08

  Greenblatt fair value$0.76

  ✗Greenblatt-1094.7% margin vs $9.08

  Pabrai fair value$6.37

  ✗Pabrai-42.5% margin vs $9.08

  Templeton fair value$0.12

  ✗Templeton-7466.7% margin vs $9.08
• Profitability6% pass✓ 8✗ 27▾

  15 of 16 flag NGD's profitability — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +12 more

  Positive EPS (10 years)2/9 years positive

  ✗GrahamPositive EPS every year for 10 years

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Net Income Positive (10+ years)2/9 years positive

  ✗BuffettPositive every year for 10+ years

  ROE (up to 5-year arithmetic mean)-0.1%

  ✗Buffett> 15% arithmetic mean (app rule)

  Operating Margin (10-yr trend)19.7% (latest)

  ✓BuffettStable or rising over 10 years

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  Earnings Variance (10-yr CoV)N/A (negative mean EPS)

  ✗BuffettCoV < 0.3

  Retained Earnings Effectiveness

  ✗Buffett$1 retained -> > $1 market value created

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 64.9x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR-12.6%

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  ROE9.8%

  ✗Lynch> 15%

  EBIT / Enterprise Value

  ✗Greenblatt> 10%

  Earnings Yield + ROC AssessmentEY=None, ROC=None

  ✗GreenblattBoth EY > 10% and ROC > 25%

  Net Income / Total Assets5.12%

  ✓PiotroskiROA > 0

  ROA Change YoY-2.82% -> 5.12% (delta: +7.94%)

  ✓PiotroskiCurrent ROA > Prior ROA

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=19.60%, ROA=5.12%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Gross Margin Change YoY13.0% -> 26.0%

  ✓PiotroskiImproved YoY

  Pre-Tax Income / Revenue9.0%

  ✓Dreman>= 8%

  Net Income / Shareholders' Equity9.8%

  ✗Dreman> 12%

  Margin of SafetyP/E=64.9x, P/B=6.8x

  ✗PabraiP/B < 1.5 or P/E < 15

  Return on Equity-1.8% (3-yr avg)

  ✗AkreROE > 20% (3-year avg)

  Discount to Intrinsic ValueN/A (negative normalized EPS)

  ✗Marks>= 20% below intrinsic value

  Positive Net Income Frequency2/9 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  Operating Income / Revenue19.7%

  ✓Ackman>= 15%

  Net Income / Shareholders Equity9.8%

  ✗Ackman>= 15%

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Operating Margin Trend-2.6% (2022) -> 19.7% (2024)

  ✓TempletonNon-negative operating-margin trend over 3 years

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 4.4% -> 26.0%, operating margin -2.6% -> 19.7%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  Net income / market capitalization+1.43%; #2871/6340 (top 45.3%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section

  Gross profit / total assets+12.01%; #2657/3702 (top 71.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Net income / positive book equity+9.75%; #1845/5226 (top 35.3%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  Negative 5-year standard deviation of ROA-0.0418; #2340/5884 (top 39.8%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-12.6% over 3 years

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized

  Positive Diluted-EPS Years2/9 years positive

  ✗Schloss>= 70% positive over 5-10 observed years (app rule)
• Growth13% pass✓ 5✗ 8▾

  7 of 8 flag NGD's growth — Graham, Lynch, Dreman +4 more

  EPS Growth (3-yr avg, 10-yr window)N/A (negative base EPS)

  ✗Graham>= 33% growth

  Basic earnings-growth PEG (dividends excluded)P/E 64.9x (growth N/A)

  ✗Lynch< 1.0 (ideally < 0.5)

  3-5 Year EPS CAGR-12.6%

  ✗Lynch15-30% (Fast Grower); > 0% to pass

  Inventory Growth vs Revenue GrowthInv: -6.3% vs Rev: 17.5%

  ✓LynchInventory growth < Revenue growth

  EPS Growth Direction$-0.01 (2016) -> $0.14 (2024)

  ✓DremanPositive over recent years

  EPS CAGR

  ✗Dreman> 5% annualized

  Positive Net Income Frequency2/9 years positive

  ✗MarksPositive net income in >= 7 of last 10 years

  3yr Median Revenue Growth17.5%

  ✓Ackman>= 5%

  Positive EPS Growth Frequency3/5 years with positive EPS growth

  ✓AckmanPositive EPS growth in >= 3 of last 5 years

  5-Year EPS CAGR

  ✗Templeton> 0% (5-year EPS CAGR)

  Revenue growth vs. gross and operating margin trendgross margin 4.4% -> 26.0%, operating margin -2.6% -> 19.7%

  ✗SleepRevenue rising; gross margin flat or falling; operating margin holding

  5-year Revenue CAGR8.0%

  ✓SleepCAGR > 7%

  3-5 Year Diluted EPS CAGR-12.6% over 3 years

  ✗Neff7%-20% annualized
• Cash Flow20% pass✓ 3✗ 9▾

  8 of 10 flag NGD's cash flow — Buffett, Lynch, Dreman +5 more

  Free Cash Flow Proxy

  ✗BuffettPositive and growing

  FCF Positive and Growing

  ✗LynchPositive and growing

  Operating Cash Flow$392.8M

  ✓PiotroskiCFO > 0

  (CFO / Total Assets) vs ROACFO/Assets=19.60%, ROA=5.12%

  ✓PiotroskiCFO/Assets > ROA

  Price / (CFO / Shares)18.3x

  ✗Dreman< 8x

  P/E or FCF YieldP/E=64.9x

  ✗PabraiP/E < 15 or FCF Yield > 10%

  FCF Positive

  ✗MarksPositive FCF in majority of recent years

  (OCF - CapEx) / Market Cap

  ✗Ackman>= 4%

  Price / FCF per Share

  ✗Ackman<= 25

  Positive Operating Cash Flow frequency9/9 years positive

  ✓SleepPositive OCF in >= 70% of available years

  Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

  ✗Neff> $0 (app proxy for a strong fundamental case)

  (Operating cash flow - capex) / market capitalization

  ✗OshaughnessyTop 10% of eligible cross-section
• Debt & Leverage25% pass✓ 4✗ 11▾

  9 of 12 flag NGD's debt & leverage — Graham, Buffett, Lynch +6 more

  Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity0.84

  ✗Dreman< 0.8✓Templeton< 1.0 (fixed cap; proxy for below-sector-median leverage)✓SchlossD/E < 1.00x

  LT Debt vs Net Current AssetsLT Debt $397.0M vs NCA $77.5M

  ✗GrahamLT Debt <= Net Current Assets

  Debt/Equity & Interest CoverageD/E: 0.84, IC: 10.7x

  ✗BuffettD/E < 0.5 AND Interest Coverage > 5x

  Total Debt / Equity0.84

  ✗Lynch< 0.33

  Cash - Long-term Debt$-311.7M

  ✗LynchPositive preferred

  LT Debt / Total Assets Change17.32% -> 19.81%

  ✗PiotroskiDecreased YoY

  Current Assets / Current Liabilities1.39

  ✗Dreman> 1.5✗SchlossCurrent ratio >= 1.50x (app cutoff)

  Debt Levels0.84

  ✗MungerDebt/Equity < 0.5✗AkreDebt/Equity < 0.3

  Interest Coverage & Debt/EBITDAIC=10.7x, D/EBITDA=2.1x

  ✓MarksInterest Coverage > 3x; Debt/EBITDA < 4x

  Total Debt / Shareholders Equity0.84

  ✓Ackman<= 1.0

  Negative debt-to-equity (higher means less debt)-0.8428; #3038/4210 (top 72.2%)

  ✗AsnessTop 30% of eligible cross-section